Friday, December 7, 2012

Contrarian Ideas: 10 Downtrend Stocks With Significant Bearish Options Sentiment

If you're interested in contrarian ideas, this list may offer an interesting starting point.

To compile this list we looked for stocks with the following characteristics:

  • Market cap above $300M
  • Trading below the 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages
  • Significant increase in Put/Call ratio over the last two weeks (i.e. bearish options sentiment)




We also created an equal weighted index of the stocks mentioned below, and monitored the performance of the list relative to the S&P 500 index over the last month. No surprises here, the list has underperformed the S&P 500 by a significant margin over the last month. To access a complete analysis of this list's recent performance, click here.
Click for expanded images

Given the excessive pessimism around these names, which of these companies do you think is being underestimated?

1. YPF S.A. (YPF): Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Industry. Market cap of $16.22B. This stock is trading -4.56% below its 20-day MA, -8.24% below its 50-day MA, and -2.2% below its 200-day MA. The Put/Call ratio increased by 662.0%, from 1.0 to 7.62. The stock has gained 1.4% over the last year.

2. TC Pipelines LP (TCLP): Oil and Gas Pipelines Industry. Market cap of $2.19B. This stock is trading -7.67% below its 20-day MA, -9.17% below its 50-day MA, and -1.42% below its 200-day MA. The Put/Call ratio increased by 404.35%, from 0.46 to 2.32. It's been a rough couple of days for the stock, losing 7.08% over the last week.

3. Checkpoint Systems Inc. (CKP): Security and Protection Services Industry. Market cap of $763.33M. This stock is trading -8.46% below its 20-day MA, -10.76% below its 50-day MA, and -8.39% below its 200-day MA. The Put/Call ratio increased by 150.77%, from 0.65 to 1.63.

4. Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG): Oil and Gas Drilling and Exploration Industry. Market cap of $1.40B. This stock is trading -12.2% below its 20-day MA, -21.8% below its 50-day MA, and -5.1% below its 200-day MA. The Put/Call ratio increased by 94.59%, from 0.74 to 1.44. The stock is a short squeeze candidate, with a short float at 26.86% (equivalent to 6.69 days of average volume). It's been a rough couple of days for the stock, losing 12.54% over the last week.

5. Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. (PACB): Biotechnology Industry. Market cap of $580.84M. This stock is trading -12.69% below its 20-day MA, -19.44% below its 50-day MA, and -22.97% below its 200-day MA. The Put/Call ratio increased by 90.36%, from 0.83 to 1.58. The stock is a short squeeze candidate, with a short float at 6.39% (equivalent to 19.3 days of average volume).

6. Advent Software, Inc. (ADVS): Application Software Industry. Market cap of $1.38B. This stock is trading -6.4% below its 20-day MA, -6.82% below its 50-day MA, and -4.89% below its 200-day MA. The Put/Call ratio increased by 73.28%, from 1.16 to 2.01. The stock is a short squeeze candidate, with a short float at 9.69% (equivalent to 17.02 days of average volume).

7. Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN): Trucking Industry. Market cap of $472.14M. This stock is trading -2.7% below its 20-day MA, -0.9% below its 50-day MA, and -0.98% below its 200-day MA. The Put/Call ratio increased by 54.63%, from 3.35 to 5.18.

8. Nokia Corporation (NOK): Communication Equipment Industry. Market cap of $35.37B. This stock is trading -3.11% below its 20-day MA, -0.53% below its 50-day MA, and -11.41% below its 200-day MA. The Put/Call ratio increased by 35.9%, from 0.78 to 1.06. Offers a good dividend, and appears to have good liquidity to back it up - dividend yield at 5.86%, current ratio at 1.65, and quick ratio at 1.49. The stock has had a couple of great days, gaining 5.08% over the last week.

9. Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA (BVN): Gold Industry. Market cap of $11.18B. This stock is trading -0.1% below its 20-day MA, -4.94% below its 50-day MA, and -8.9% below its 200-day MA. The Put/Call ratio increased by 32.03%, from 1.53 to 2.02. The stock has had a couple of great days, gaining 7.33% over the last week.

10. Buckeye Partners LP (BPL): Oil and Gas Pipelines Industry. Market cap of $5.85B. This stock is trading -1.08% below its 20-day MA, -1.64% below its 50-day MA, and -1.17% below its 200-day MA. The Put/Call ratio increased by 26.04%, from 1.69 to 2.13.

*Options data sourced from Schaeffer's, all other data sourced from Finviz.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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