Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Sell in May and Go Away? Yes.

Once April rolls around, the seasonal effect of selling-in-May-and-going-away makes its comeback in media. Should an investor follow this adage? Let me break it down. The original academic article written by colleagues of mine, Bouman and Jacobsen (2002), called the seasons effect "The Halloween Indicator."

Their research concludes that for a U.S. portfolio the return between a portfolio that is invested during the summer and a portfolio not invested during earn a very similar return over a long period. However, the portfolio that raised cash during the summer had lower volatility. This research does not take into account the affect of taxes or trading costs. It appears for the average investor it does not make sense to sell in May and try to time a re-entry point. Then you must pay transaction costs, can not defray capital gain taxes, and emotional biases may set in where you buy in at the wrong time or sell and regret it.

I have recently been working on an academic paper that examines this seasonal effect at a deeper level. I have been looking the seasonal effect during different economic environments. For example, during May to August of 2009 the United States was in the midst of a rebound from depressed stock levels. The same for the summer of 2003. Those periods were horrible time to sell in May and go away. However, other periods such as 2004 sell in May and go away worked. I find that investing based on this seasonal effect works only in certain economic environments. If one can identify those environments than one can successfully sell in May and go away.

What cycle or environment are we in now? Based on the Behavioral Finance Investment Advisors (BFIA), we have detected three periods in the past forty years that are similar to today. One of those periods is 2004. Let us take a look at 2004. From the beginning of January to the 3rd week in April the S&P 500 increased over 4%. From the end of April to the beginning of August it fell over 4% and from August to December is increased around 13%. From the beginning of January to April 15th, 2011 the &P 500 is up around 5% similar to the first quarter of 2004.

So far our indicators since November of 2010 have been tracking the 2003-2004 indicators very closely. Take a look at the chart below which plots our indicators for the January - April period for 2004 and 2011.

Figure 1: BFIA Indicators 2004 vs. 2011

It can been seen that they are tracking each other very closely.

The conclusion here is that it is important to identify the investment cycle that we are currently in and then decide whether the seasonal effect applies. Forget all the other noise in the market. Where we are in the cycle is what matters.

Based on our indicators we see a continuation of 2004. Therefore, we suggest to sell in May and go away. For the other two periods that match today's indicator level, the next three months were also down months. However, the U.S. indicator level is at a bullish level, which signifies that there will not be another flash crash. That volatility will not increase to absurd levels as in the flash crash. The market will trend down for three months starting in a week or two, with occasional pops.

What are the ways to play the U.S. stock market in the next three months?

  • Raise cash to at least 50%. Wait for three months and then re-deploy that cash.
  • Keep your current portfolio but buy protection for the next three months. This could mean buying inverse ETFs such as ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (SH) to protect some or all of your portfolio. One may also want to short the European market since the paper above suggests that the seasonal effect is strongest in Europe. One can either short an European ETF such as iShares S&P Europe 350 (IEV) or buy an inverse ETF such as ProShares UltraShort MSCI Europe (EPV).
  • Long volatility by buying a call on the VIX or buying iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX). Currently the VIX is around 15, below its long-term average. However, I suggest against this since our indicators suggest the next three months will not be very volatile but more of a slow downward trend. The market could trend down with the VIX not increasing by very much or at all.
  • To conclude, it matters where we are in the investment cycle, and our research indicates that the next several months will be down months.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    VIX Concepts often Miss the Volatility Boat

    Well, we like to sometimes (often) pick on CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) tweets. Yesterday we had this.

    “First time in a year that the market has been making new highs and the VIX has not made new lows.”

    I bring this one up because it infers several commonly held VIX misconceptions in one neat 140 character package. Options trading can lead to misconceptions.

    First of all, VIX is but one measure of volatility. Here’s a similar, but modestly different one from Ivolatility.com. The yellow line shows 30 day implied volatility (IV) of the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) using their proprietary model.

    Blue=Historic; Yellow=IV Index

    So no, it hasn’t quite hit new lows. But it�s pretty darn close. And given that each session contains so many variables like day of the week, day within the expiration cycle, et. al., it�s a statistically insignificant difference.

    But let�s play devils advocate and take it a step further and ask why SPY IV (and VIX) sit higher despite a higher SPY/SPX ( the S&P 500 Index options).

    Yes, VIX moves in opposition to the market, but not perfectly so. In fact it has a roughly -.66 correlation. Remember VIX measures volatility. And sometimes volatility actually picks up during market rallies, and declines during market drifts. Here’s 10-day realized volatility in SPY over the past three months.

    10-Day Historic Volatility

    Quite simply, realized (AKA historic) volatility has seen a notable pickup lately. If you compare this to the 30-day IV in the first graph, you would actually make the opposite conclusion as the highlighted tweet. Namely, that implied volatility now is actually as cheap as its been at any time in the last month, provided you relate it to realized volatility in the market.

    Of course this comparison has flaws too. Realized volatility looks backwards, whereas implied volatility guesses forward. The best way to look at this picture is that options pre-anticipated a pickup in realized volatility for a month before the Egypt crisis actually delivered the pop. And most interestingly, that pop really didn’t change the overall volatility picture much, save for last Friday’s very brief blip. VIX futures barely moved. Neither did longer-dated options (in volatility terms).

    Going forward, it sure looks like that little spike in realized volatility will prove a one-day wonder. And once that “blue line” dips again, we get right back to where we were. Implied volatility is cheap versus itself, but a little high versus realized volatility. In other words, normal.

    Follow Adam Warner on Twitter @agwarner.

    David Einhorn Releases Q4 Investor Letter: Bearish on Bernanke

    David Einhorn released Greenlight Capital’s Q4 letter on January 18, and it’s as entertaining and informative as usual. Einhorn’s musings are a must-read each quarter for his honest appraisal of the market and insightful comments on the individual positions that he holds. For a brief overview and link to the letter, click here.

    For those not familiar with Einhorn, let me give you a brief background. He started Greenlight Capital in 1996 at age 28 with just a $1 million from friends and family. Since then, he has returned 21.5% annually after fees and expenses and now manages $6.8 billion. In addition to the hedge fund, he is the chairman of Greenlight Re (GLRE), a reinsurance company that invests its float with Greenlight Capital. Greenlight Re has returned 28% to investors over the past year and is still reasonably priced at 1.1 times book.

    He famously shorted Lehman Brothers before the crisis, and most recently went public with his short of St. Joe (JOE), a real estate development company where another noted hedge fund manager, Bruce Berkowitz, holds a large stake.

    On to the letter: Einhorn begins by railing against Ben Bernanke:

    On August 27, 2010, Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming where he hinted that the Fed would provide additional monetary easing. At the time, the S&P 500 was down more than 3% for the year. From that point through the end of the year, the S&P rallied 19%. At the same time, oil prices rose 16%, copper prices rose 32%, coffee prices rose 34%, corn prices rose 43% and cotton prices rose 57%.

    This inflation, which apparently isn't being picked up or respected by the Fed or Bernanke is the reason why Einhorn is holding a large gold position. I think there are better ways to play inflation than gold, because it's difficult to measure demand, but I agree with the inflation view. It's no coincidence that all of these commodities would jump during the same period. The price appreciation reflects the sopping up of liquidity, but it's not creating real growth.

    Einhorn's largest disclosed longs are Arkema (ARKAY.PK), Ensco (ESV), gold, Pfizer (PFE), and Vodafone Group (VOD). He holds physical gold in a vault in Manhattan, not the ETF. In the last quarter he bought into BP (BP) at an average price of $41.18/share. Some appreciation from that level has already occurred, but more is expected as they reinstate their dividend in early 2011. Another new position is Sprint (S). Einhorn believes it’s a $10 stock using a DCF model, with the caveat that management must deliver. That’s a big if in my opinion, but with the stock in the low $4’s, there's a hefty margin of safety.

    The big gains may have passed us by for ESV and BP, as well as the JOE short, but there are certainly a few other names mentioned that deserve a look. Sprint is trading at about the same price as when Einhorn bought in and, giving Einhorn the benefit of the doubt, it's worth a more detailed look. Just don't get seduced by CEO Dan Hesse's commercial appearances.

    Disclosure: I am long GLRE, ESV.

    How to Double Your Money When Small Banks Sell Out

     

    The end of small banks in America seems near. Instead, America will be a land of giants. But the small banks will go out with a bang — one that investors can capitalize on.

    First, let’s look at why small banks are on their way out.

    One little-appreciated side effect of the financial crisis is the hostile conditions it created for small banks — and not for the reason you think. It wasn’t that these smallest of America’s banks got in any financial trouble. Many did not. In fact, many remain among the best capitalized of America’s banks. These banks just stuck to simple business of banking — taking deposits and making old-fashioned loans.

    But in the wake of the financial crisis, U.S. regulations began to impose costly rules on all banks — not just the big behemoths that got in trouble. This month, the beating continued as the Federal Reserve determined that even the smallest lenders must comply with the new Basel III accords.

    These compliance costs can easily top a million dollars. For a small bank, that may be more than they make in profits all year.

    The Federal Reserve policy of keeping interest rates low hurts too. It crimps small bank profit margins. These banks rely on the lending spreads. They don’t have big fancy trading desks or big fee businesses. And the lousy economy doesn’t make life any easier. It’s tough to grow.

    So what many small banks are doing is selling out. There have been more than 90 transactions announced so far this year, according to The Wall Street Journal. We’re on pace for the busiest year for bank mergers since 2007 in terms of transactions.

    What’s interesting here from an investment point of view are the prices paid. Buyers are paying premiums to book value for healthy banks with lots of capital. Yet many such small banks trade for well under book value.

    My favorite small banks to own are the recently converted thrifts (or savings & loans). A thrift conversion is when a thrift converts to a publicly traded bank. To do this, it offers shares to the public. But unlike a traditional IPO — like Facebook — there are no selling insiders. All of the money raised, less underwriting fees, goes back to the bank. So the new shareholders own the cash they put in, less fees, plus the bank.

    As a result, these thrifts have tons of cash and often trade below book value. They have plenty of room to buy back stock or pay dividends. Often, they get bought out. By law, they can’t until after they pass their three-year anniversary. But once that happens, investors can see immediate big gains from a takeover.

    According to SNL Financial, which tracks such things, of the 56 completed conversions from 2003-08, there have been 16 buyouts, with two more pending. The median price-to-tangible book ratio at announcement of the takeover was 164.2%. That means that if you paid no more than book value, you got a 64% gain over a three-year span.

    If you paid 80% of book value, then a 164% premium means you doubled your money — and that assumes that book value hasn’t grown at all since you bought it, which is unlikely. Most healthy thrifts increase book value per share over time.

    Hold longer than three years and your odds are better. SNL recently published a table on the class of 2000. Nearly two-thirds were bought out. And the ones that weren’t still did well by their investors, see the table below:

    Many of them doubled. A few were even monster winners. Connecticut Bancshares went from $10 to $52 per share. Port Financial went from $10 to $53.98 per share. There was one failure, but otherwise, the rest made good returns.

    In summary, the nature of thrift conversions — all that cash to start, often with an attractive valuation plus the added kicker of a likely takeout (made more likely in today’s environment) — means that converted thrifts often prove good investments. As Barron’s recently reported.

    “Converted thrifts have outperformed the broad market significantly in the past 20 years, and that could remain the case. In the 10 years ended Dec. 1 [2011], the SNL Thrift MHC Index, based on 30 partially converted thrifts, returned 188%, versus a return of just 63% for the small-cap Russell 2000.”

    This kind of outperformance has been going on for a long time. Peter Lynch, the great investor who ran the Fidelity Magellan fund to glory, included two enthusiastic chapters on them in his book Beating the Street. And superinvestor Seth Klarman also writes about them favorably in his book Margin of Safety. I included a discussion of thrifts in my new book World Right Side Up: Investing Across Six Continents in the chapter on the U.S.

    Again, nothing works all the time.

    8 Dividend Stocks Avoiding the Cash Trap

    In their efforts to balance short-term investor expectations with long-term strategic goals, The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) warns companies to avoid cash traps that can negatively impact near-term shareholder returns. One of which is the The Stock-Buyback Trap. BCG doesn’t discount the role that stock buybacks can play in boosting near-term returns for some companies. But the firm’s research indicates that buybacks do not change investors’ estimates for long-term earnings-per-share growth, or induce them to accord a company a higher valuation multiple. By contrast, it says, dividend growth has a far more positive long-term impact.

    Below are several companies that recently avoided the cash trap by increasing dividends paid to their shareholders:

    Village Super Market (VLGEA) operates a chain of 23 ShopRite supermarkets in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. March 19th the company increased its quarterly dividend 4% to $0.25/share. The dividend is payable on April 22, 2010 to shareholders of record at the close of business on April 1, 2010. The ex-dividend date is March 30, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 3.61%.

    Williams-Sonoma (WSM) sells high-quality products for the home via its retail stores and various direct-to-customer channels. March 22nd the company raised its quarterly dividend to $0.13/share. The yield based on the new payout is 1.88%.

    Raven (RAVN) provides electronic precision-agriculture products, reinforced plastic sheeting, electronics manufacturing services, specialty aeronautics, and sewn products. March 22nd the company increased its quarterly dividend to $0.16/share. The dividend is payable April 15, 2010, to shareholders of record on March 31, 2010. The ex-dividend date is March 29, 2010. RAVN is a Dividend Achiever and has raised its dividend for 24 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 2.89%.

    ConocoPhillips (COP) is the the fourth largest integrated oil company in the world. March 24th the company raised its dividend 10%. COP also announced it would sell of 10 percent of LUKOIL and other assets over the next two years. The yield based on the new payout is 4.22%.

    Starbucks (SBUX) is the leading coffee roaster and retailer of high-quality coffee products in the world. March 24th the company approved its first ever quarterly cash dividend of $0.10/share. The quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share will be paid on April 23, 2010, to shareholders of record on the close of business on April 7, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 1.58%.

    Clifton Savings Bancorp (CSBK) serves northeast New Jersey through its Clifton Savings Bank, S.L.A. subsidiary with assets of $801 million. March 24th the company raised its quarterly dividend to $0.06/share. The yield based on the new payout is 2.50%.

    Raytheon (RTN), the world’s sixth largest military contractor, specializes in making high-tech missiles and electronics. March 24th the company increased its quarterly dividend 21% to $0.375/share. The dividend will be paid on April 29, 2010 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on April 6, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 2.62%.

    Hingham Institution for Savings (HIFS) is a Massachusetts-chartered savings bank with offices located in Hingham, South Hingham, Hull, Scituate, Cohasset, SouthWeymouth, Norwell and Boston’s South End. March 25th the company raised its quarterly dividend 4.5% to $0.23/share. The dividend is payable on April 20, 2010 to stockholders of record as of April 9, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 2.83%. Robert H. Gaughen, Jr., President and Chief Executive Officer of the Bank, in announcing the dividend, stated:

    We are proud of the fact that we have increased cash dividends to shareholders in each of the past 15 years.

    Avoiding the cash trap works best when applied on a consistent basis. For a list of stocks with a long string of consecutive cash dividend increases, see this list.

    Disclosure: No position in the aforementioned securities. See a list of all my income holdings here.

    Stocks: Brace for slower, bumpier ride higher

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Wall Street just closed out its best first quarter in 14 years, but don't expect the impressive run to last forever.

    Most experts think the recent momentum will slow, and say investors should be ready for a few dips along the way.

    Investment strategists and money managers expect the S&P 500 will rise just 1.5% from its current level, according to an exclusive CNNMoney survey.

    While that's lackluster compared with the 12% gain logged during the first three months of this year, the small step higher would put the S&P 500 up more than 14% in 2012 -- a far better return than last year's flat finish.

    One reason stocks have been able to kick into high gear this year has been thanks to the European Central Bank's influx of cash into the European banking system, which has managed to stave off a credit crunch in Europe, said Kim Forrest, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group.

    That has helped investors put Europe's debt crisis, which plagued the market throughout most of 2011, on the back burner for now. But worries that Greece may need another debt restructuring and concerns over Spain's debt problems are beginning to crop up, said Forrest.

    Plus, doubts about how much longer China's economy can continue growing at a robust pace are also rising, added Forrest, whose year-end target for the S&P 500 stands at 1425.

    CNNMoney survey: Where the markets are headed in 2012

    "We think the news out of Europe and China could lessen the greed and increase the fear of investors," said Forrest. "That's going to add some volatility over the course of the year."

    Forrest said she'll be closely tuning into second quarter earnings, as companies update their forecasts for the remainder of the year.

    Some experts, however, are more optimistic about the global economy.

    Make Europe's pain your gain

    "Certainly China and other emerging markets have taken steps to ease their monetary policy and spur economic growth, and will probably continue to do so throughout most of this year, " said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank."But there's a lag time until you'll see those changes take effect."

    While China's economy will likely continue to decelerate through the summer, growth should pick up toward the end of the year and help spark a rally, said McCain, who expects the S&P 500 to close 2012 around 1550, up 10% from its current level.

    However, McCain warns that before that strong finish kicks in, there may be a few bumps along the way.

    With the risk of a severe meltdown in Europe off the table, he forecasts a fairly modest pullback of about 10% in the near-term.

    "So far we've been willing to focus on all the positive signs, but prospects are growing for a dip over the next few months," he said. "But soon after, we'll be back on track for a rising market that could hit some new highs." 

    Housing recovery still sputters

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The housing market continued to struggle in March, despite low home prices and record low interest rates, an industry report revealed Thursday.

    Sales of existing homes fell 2.6% compared with a month earlier, to an annualized rate of 4.48 million homes, the National Association of Realtors said.

    Gus Faucher, a senior economist at PNC Financial, called the report disappointing.

    "We were expecting an increase," he said. "We need a turnaround to help the economy recover."

    The Realtors' group's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, opted to look on the bright side of the report -- sales were up 5.2% year-over-year.

    It's safe to sell your home again

    "We have seen nine consecutive months of year-over-year sales increases," he said. "Existing-home sales are moving up and down in a fairly narrow range that is well above the level of activity during the first half of last year."

    The choppy market stands in contrast to the continuing gains made in affordability.

    Factoring in price declines that have averaged about 34% nationally, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, and record low mortgage rates, homebuying is more affordable than ever.

    "For buyers who can qualify for a mortgage, now is a very good time to become a homeowner," said Realtors' president Moe Veissi.

    According to Yun, better economic conditions will push sales higher as the year goes on.

    "With job growth, low interest rates, bargain home prices and an improving economy, the pent-up demand is coming to market and we expect housing to be notably better this year," he said.

    As the year goes on, buyers may find fewer properties to choose from.

    The number of homes for sale dropped 1.3% in March to 2.37 million existing homes. That's a 6.3-month supply at the current sales pace. Inventory declined 21.8% compared with March 2011 and is well below the record of 4.04 million in July 2007.

    Ironically, the tighter supply may have cut into sales, with house hunters in some areas of the nation having trouble finding homes to suit their needs or tastes.

    "We're already seeing this in the Western states and in South Florida," said Yun.

    If the tightness in inventory spreads, it could signal a rebirth for home builders, who would have to step up development to fill the gap. And putting construction workers back on the job would be a shot in the arm for the overall economy as well as the housing market.

    "Conditions are in place for a turnaround," said Faucher. "We're just waiting for more confidence among buyers. We expect that to happen over the next few months." 

    SM: Fix Your 401(k)

    Every day, millions of Americans give their investments the serious attention they deserve, riffling through the business pages, tracking the markets and grappling with tough questions. Do I need more exposure to stocks -- or less? How worried should I be about the euro? Am I going to need to save more to retire on time? But there's a major question often hiding in plain sight, one so fundamental to people's financial health many don't even think to ask it: Is my 401(k) plan any good?

    Inside the April Issue
    • Fix Your 401(k)
    • The Big Business of 401(k) Plans
    • 10 Things Campaign Managers Won't Tell You
    • 9 to 5 -- at 75
    • Real Estate: When High Rents Are a 'Buy' Signal

    Certainly, few of us need to ask whether the plans matter: We've resigned ourselves to our dependency when it comes to retirement savings. Americans now hold $4.3 trillion in 401(k)s and similar defined-contribution plans, nearly three times as much as the $1.6 trillion parked in annuities. The plans weren't originally designed to be the nation's primary retirement lifeline -- they started as a minor tax perk for senior executives -- but they've grown inexorably, as ever more big companies have used them as a cheaper alternative to traditional pensions. Only about a third of the corporate work force can look forward to a monthly pension check today, down from 80 percent three decades ago; over the same period, assets in 401(k)-like plans have grown 16-fold.

    And yet, as many economists and money pros know and as more employees are beginning to realize, the plans are riddled with problems capable of tripping up even the most diligent investors. The laundry list of pitfalls includes high (and often hidden) expenses that eat up enormous chunks of plan members' gains, as well as company-provided advice that critics say ranges from vague to nonexistent. Some consumer advocates say that too many employers treat their plans as an afterthought -- and that the financial-services industry, which collects between $30 billion and $60 billion a year in fees from such plans, has little incentive to change things. So it often takes Norma Rae-like activism to get a company to improve its plan lineup -- which means that, for many Americans, picking the components of their 401(k) may be the biggest financial decision they never get to make. "I personally think the 401(k) should be abolished," says Matt Goff, a Houston financial adviser whose practice serves small-business owners needing help with their company retirement plans.

    To be sure, some conscientious companies are working to make their plans better; federal regulators are getting involved too, with new rules that may make it easier for investors to see what they're actually paying for their plans. But for most investors, advisers say, it doesn't make sense to wait for the cavalry to come. Here, some of the best advice for cutting costs, finding better funds or even going outside an employer's plan to launch a 401(k) repair project.

    The New "Target": Cutting Costs Are They Worth the Price?

    Target-date funds are now the anchor of many investors' 401(k) plans, but critics have faulted some funds for high expenses and so-so performance.

    Americans now hold $343 billion in target-date funds, up threefold in six years, and they're buying them mostly through their retirement plans. These funds are the cafeteria lunch of mutual funds: They include all the basic food groups, so investors don't have to order la carte. The funds invest in a mix of stocks, bonds and other investments that gets more conservative as an investor's retirement, or target date, approaches, rebalancing automatically for investors who prefer not to or don't know how to do it themselves. Congress passed a law in 2006 making it easier for employers to use target-date funds as a default 401(k) option, and 81 percent of large employers now offer them.

    But for some cost-conscious investors, the expenses built into target-date funds are a growing peeve. Most such products are "funds of funds" that spread assets among multiple other investment vehicles. As a result, target-date-fund expenses span an unusually wide range. Vanguard's target-date products, which rely heavily on index funds, have average expenses of $18 a year per $10,000 invested; at the opposite extreme, Oppenheimer uses actively managed funds and charges $168 per $10,000. And investors at smaller companies are more likely to face fees at the higher end of the range. The differences can add up. According to human resources consultant Towers Watson, an increase of just $50 per $10,000 in target-date-fund fees could cost a high earner the equivalent of eight years' worth of retirement savings over the length of his career.

    Target-Date Funds: What to Ask

    How did you do in the crash?

    Planners say that anyone considering a target-date fund should see how that fund fared during the 2008-09 financial crisis. Among target-date funds geared for workers who planned to retire in 2010, the average fund lost 22 percent in 2008, but some lost as much as 40 percent.

    Am I the kind of investor you target?

    Target-date funds have a lot of assumptions about investor behavior baked into their structure. Many hold plenty of volatile assets, like stocks, even as they pass their retirement target dates, assuming investors won't need to tap the money right away and can take some risks with it. Others are already filled with bonds, assuming that investors will cash out the day they retire. Savers whose needs or plans don't match a fund's assumptions might not find the funds to be a good fit.

    Can I get your funds separately -- and cheaper?

    Some investors and advisers check a target-date's overall expense ratio, then compare that fund's individual components to similar index funds in the same 401(k) plan. In some cases, employees find they can build a comparable portfolio at a fraction of the cost.

    Do you diversify me?

    Some investors say it can be worth holding on to a target-date fund if it offers investments that you can't get elsewhere in your 401(k), like commodities or REITs, which can smooth returns in rocky markets.

    To be sure, some investors say it's worth paying more for the convenience of the all-in-one funds; what's more, the funds sometimes have access to assets like gold or foreign stocks that employees can't get elsewhere in the plan. Still, some do-it-yourselfers are opting to cook from scratch rather than accept the cafeteria tray. Atlanta adviser Jeffrey Baumert, who helps small-business owners design plans, says he'll sometimes encourage folks whose plans include Fidelity's Freedom funds to try an alternative. Freedom funds' expenses average $74 per $10,000, and Baumert says his clients can do better -- they can get exposure to large-cap stocks, for example, through the inexpensive Fidelity Spartan 500 Index fund. "Do you really think that all their fund managers in every category are going to be the best?" he asks. (Fidelity says its active management is designed to deliver better returns in the long run.)

    Some advisers advocate an even simpler rule of thumb: When possible, use only index funds. That's because the typical 401(k) fee structure makes the substantial expense gap between indexes and active funds even wider. "Packagers" -- companies like Fidelity, Vanguard or other middlemen -- collect a substantial share of their 401(k) plan revenues from active funds. Active large-cap stock funds, for example, route an average of $21 per $10,000 invested to cover back-office expenses like accounting and record-keeping, according to human resources consultancy Aon Hewitt (a firm which itself sometimes acts as a packager). The average large-cap index fund, in contrast, routes just $6, and at least half such funds don't charge those fees at all. Ultimately, investors in actively managed funds are subsidizing their coworkers, says Dave Gray, head of retirement plan product development at Charles Schwab; using index funds means getting that subsidy, instead of paying it.

    Comparing Plans on Cost

    Soon, employers will be required to make more detailed disclosures of their plans' costs. But for more data, experts say, investors will still have to dig into companies' regulatory filings.

    Cheap: IBM (Plan run by Fidelity)

    The sheer size of the plan, which has more than 200,000 participants, helps keep costs down, since bigger 401(k) programs usually get heftier discounts on fund expenses. But the plan also emphasizes cheaper index funds, including index options for real estate investing and inflation-protected bonds.

    Average: Abercrombie & Fitch (Plan run by Fidelity)

    Members of the fashion retailer's plan have access to some index options, but most of the choices are more costly, actively managed funds, including Fidelity's target-date funds. (Fidelity says the active management of those funds gives investors a long-term performance edge.)

    Expensive: Take-Two Interactive Software (Plan run by The Principal Group)

    Most funds in the video-game maker's plan are more expensive than average. To use the main stock index fund, employees pay $42 per $10,000 invested, more than twice what an all-but-identical fund costs outside the plan. Principal says the costs are typical for a plan of this size.

    Data as of latest federal filings.Sources: Brightscope; Federal Filings

    Expanding Your Choices: The 401(k)-Plus What's Missing From the Menu

    Since the financial crisis, advisers say, 401(k) investors have been more likely to look for alternatives to plain-vanilla stock and bond funds. But surprisingly few plans have adapted to give them what they want.

    When the U.S. financial system went haywire in 2008, many Main Street investors started searching for commodities, foreign bonds and other alternative investments that had a chance to stay afloat when U.S. stocks sank. But if they went looking in their 401(k)s, advisers say, chances are they found nothing -- and, more surprising still, even now, many plans haven't adapted. Excluding target-date products, the average plan has just 13 funds, only one more than before the crash, according to Aon Hewitt. And the very categories they're missing are the ones that employees could be using to hedge against a choppy stock market. Less than half of plans have a bond index fund, for example, and only about one in four includes real estate funds.

    A minority of larger 401(k)s give their employees a relatively simple way to get what they're missing, sponsoring a "brokerage window" that lets investors buy funds that aren't in the plan lineup, along with stocks and ETFs in some cases. But for many employees, experts say, it's a costly proposition. Trading commissions tend to be noticeably higher on such transactions than on the same ones made through a discount broker, for example, and investors won't get the "institutional" discount on fund shares. The result is you'll pay more for the investments you want -- "like buying hot dogs at the ballpark," says financial adviser Robert Schmansky, who helps employers choose 401(k) plans.

    Beyond Your 401(k): What to Ask

    What's my match?

    Financial advisers say investors should almost always contribute enough to get their 401(k) plan's full match -- most years, their investments would have to have a great run to make up for the money they would have left on the table.

    Can I climb out the window?

    About a fifth of large companies have a "brokerage window" that offers access to a bigger range of investments -- though using it means paying fees and commissions. Some advisers recommend minimizing costs by using the window only once a quarter or once a year.

    What if I go out on my own?

    Investors without a brokerage window can find more investment options by opening an IRA or a Roth IRA. For 2012, the maximum contribution for such plans is $5,000 for those under 50 and $6,000 for those 50 and older.

    When can I leave?

    When workers switch jobs, they can roll their 401(k) plan balance into an IRA. Otherwise, they're stuck, with one noteworthy exception: In many plans, those who turn 591/2 become eligible for an "in-service rollover," even if they stay with their company.

    The upshot is that some employees have decided, in a sense, to take the money and run. They contribute just enough to their plans to get a company match, then set up separate retirement accounts that can fill the holes in their 401(k)s. Aircraft giant Boeing has leveraged its huge work force -- its 401(k) has around 200,000 enrollees -- to get low fees in its plan, which includes plenty of low-cost index funds. But the plan lacks funds that focus on holdings that money managers say can help smooth returns in rocky markets, including REITs and Treasury inflation-protected securities. It also lacks specific funds for emerging-market and foreign small-cap stocks. As a result, advisers say, many Boeing employees have built their own shadow 401(k)s. Lowell Lombardini-Parker, a financial planner in Seattle, says he's dealt with dozens of clients from the company, helping them buy low-cost funds targeting those asset classes. His philosophy: "Use what you can. But if you have to, go outside the 401(k)." (Boeing says its own plan includes a "prudent" menu, and that its narrow range of options is designed to not overwhelm unsophisticated investors.)

    The double-barrel strategy isn't necessarily the right fit for everyone. Because a matching contribution from an employer is essentially free money, planners say investors should always collect fully on that. And higher-income workers may not be able to make tax-deductible contributions to outside accounts if they also have a 401(k). In that case, Lombardini-Parker says, it may still make sense to put money in a taxable retirement account. Many advisers recommend that investors leave REITs and TIPS out of such accounts -- since they tend to throw off taxable income -- and use them instead for equity funds and other stock investments that they plan to hold for a while.

    Where the Advice Is... and What It Costs

    Advice From Your Company

    • Cost: Usually free.
    • Pros: Can't beat the price.
    • Cons: Only offered by about 60% of firms. Many limit counsel to relatively generic advice.

    One-Time, Outside Advice

    • Cost: $500 and up for a review of your finances (based on typical fees).
    • Pros: Clients can mesh 401(k) advice with counsel on issues like college savings and insurance.
    • Cons: It's up to the client to follow the plan; getting follow-up advice often means paying extra.

    Full-Time Advice

    • Cost: Typically 1% a year, or $5,000 a year for someone with $500,000 in investable assets.
    • Pros: Advisers handle some transactions for clients and offer guidance on issues like estate planning
    • Cons: Often more expensive than part-time help; some investors with fewer assets feel neglected.
    Summoning Reinforcements: Outside Help

    On average, 401(k) members fork over $83 per $10,000 invested each year in total fees, according to a recent study by Deloitte Consulting and the Investment Company Institute. For about 60 percent of 401(k) plans, that fee comes with what looks like a corresponding perk -- the opportunity to get investment advice. But according to the Plan Sponsor Council of America, a trade group, only about one in five investors takes advantage of the advice.

    Why so little interest? It turns out that the companies' offerings are pretty bare-bones. David Wray, president of the plan council, says the threat of lawsuits means large companies need to make sure that, say, a 60-year-old in Dallas and a 60-year-old in Boston get relatively consistent recommendations, which means the advice is less likely to be personalized. Employers also almost always avoid offering advice about any assets that aren't in the 401(k), like a home or a spouse's savings. The result: "Plan-provided advice tends to be generic," says Wray.

    The problem, of course, is that anything that isn't generic can get expensive. Financial advisers can spend hours poring over every investment choice. But their fees often start at 1 percent of an investor's assets, which would effectively double what the typical 401(k) shareholder is already spending on her portfolio. One Goldilocks option: Some financial planners will take on smaller advice projects, counseling investors on a one-time basis for an hourly fee. Brian Terry, a Charlotte, N.C.-based adviser, has seen dozens of 401(k) clients. He gives his clients a rundown of their plan, taking a few hours to help them pick investments; many, but not all, return once a year for a follow-up. His price: $150 an hour. The Garrett Planning Network is one network of hourly-fee planners; others can be found through the National Association of Personal Financial Advisers.

    Financial planners have their own idiosyncrasies and agendas, though, and some critics complain that they can drive people into cookie-cutter strategies of their own. Consumer advocates say investors should check whether advisers get compensated for recommending any particular investments (a common arrangement among both independent operators and employees of big-name brokerages). When it's time to talk 401(k), advisers say, preparation counts: Think carefully about when you want to retire and how much money you hope to spend, says Lea Ann Knight, a planner from Bedford, Mass., who meets with many clients for similar consultations. And don't be shy about secret ambitions -- like that condo in Maui. Devote your face time with the planner to these goals; let him parse the fine print on investment prospectuses.

    And investors who decide that with or without help, their 401(k) just won't cut it can always approach the boss. Retirement consultants say that many employers, no less befuddled by the system, are often happy to hear what employees want. Of course, some may have better luck asking employers to add a single option like a mutual fund than to switch providers entirely. One place to start: Grassroots investing website Bogleheads.org has a form letter employees can download for free.

    Getting Help: What to Ask

    Should I take my employer's advice?

    Pros say advice from planners hired by the employer can offer investors a quick read on how much to save or whether to buy more stocks or bonds. But when it comes to picking specific investments, they add, getting a second opinion or reviewing independent research is often worthwhile.

    What's online?

    Morningstar is an invaluable resource for researching mutual funds. At not-for-profit website Bogleheads .org, anyone brave enough to (anonymously) post the details of their financial life can get advice from opinionated volunteers. Of course, with free and anonymous advice, "it's buyer beware," says securities lawyer Edward Rosenblatt.

    Can I find out how my plan stacks up?

    BrightScope, a financial research firm, has a website that offers ratings of 401(k) plans: The sections on "total plan cost" and "investment-menu quality" offer a sense of how a plan's fund lineup stacks up against others in its industry.

    What kind of adviser do I want?

    For those whose main financial concern is their 401(k) plan, a one-time meeting with a planner can be cost-effective; for investors with more complex needs, like an inheritance or college education to finance, bringing on someone full-time for an annual or asset-based fee might be warranted.

    Photo-illustrations by Stephen Webster for SmartMoney

    Yongye Keeps at It

    You say, "Eek, it's a Chinese company!" I say, "So what?"

    Yongye International (Nasdaq: YONG  ) might have been beaten up black and blue by the "anti-Chinese" short-sellers, but I almost fell off my chair after seeing its third-quarter numbers. With revenues almost doubling and profits rising even more than that, you cannot let this company pass by without taking a good look.

    Yongye rocks!
    Thanks to aggressive marketing efforts, Yongye's revenue shot up by a staggering 95.9% from the year-ago quarter to $140.6 million. Almost 21% of the total sales came from new provincial markets that Yongye had been tapping for some months now. These promotional initiatives led to a whopping 64.1% jump to $25.6 million in Yongye's selling expenses.

    Good marketing is definitely key to higher revenue, and fertilizer companies seem to have understood this well. Not just Yongye, but rival China Green Agriculture (NYSE: CGA  ) also sold more of its humic-acid-based compound fertilizers in its first quarter as marketing efforts paid off.

    Because of the solid top-line growth, Yongye's net income jumped to $39.1 million from $17.6 million a year ago.

    Smart moves
    While Yongye's focus on expanding its product reach is noteworthy, what impresses me more is its smart strategy of putting in the money where it pinches most -- sourcing raw materials. Instead of buying humic acid from intermediaries, the company is now using lignite coal from its own Wuchuan facility to extract its nutrients. In fact, since this facility became operational last year, Yongye has already started seeing a decrease in its costs.

    Moreover, during its third quarter, Yongye also received government approval for a mineral resource exploration permit for its designated project site in Wuchuan, which is very close to its primary production facility. This seems to be a significant step toward the development of the site as a primary source of raw material for Yongye's nutrient products and should result in significant cost advantages in the future.

    In Yongye's favor
    What should add to Yongye's efforts are the favorable industry conditions. Across the board, fertilizer companies have been happily cashing in on the global agricultural boom. PotashCorp's (NYSE: POT  ) third-quarter revenue, for instance, grew an astounding 47% from the year-ago period to $2.3 billion as emerging markets drove demand.

    Likewise, Terra Nitrogen (NYSE: TNH  ) and CVR Partners (NYSE: UAN  ) also reported solid revenue growth of 49% and 66.4% in their respective third quarters, thanks to rising crop prices and strong market conditions fueling prices of nutrients. And this agriculture boom is likely to stay for some time to come.

    Yongye's base in China is an added plus here. China's burgeoning population, higher spending power, and increased consumption are fueling the demand for food, lifting agriculture production. This translates into higher demand for fertilizers, which is where Yongye's branded fertilizers fit in well.

    The Foolish bottom line
    Yongye seems to be growing much faster than the market gives it credit for. Also, there is evidence that discourages us from looking at it with a suspicious eye.

    Make sure you have all the news and information on Yongye at your fingertips. Add it to your stock watchlist, our free, personalized stock-tracking service that keeps you informed on all your favorite companies.

    • Add Yongye International to your Watchlist.

    KBW Survey Shows CIOs Returning to Actively Managed Equity

    This winter, institutional investors are putting their money back into actively managed equity, with much of the flow pouring into international strategies, according to a Keefe, Bruyette & Woods survey released Monday.

    In the second edition of KBW North America Equity Research’s Chief Investment Officer Survey of 45 decision makers, about 32% of CIOs said they expect to increase their allocations to active long-only equities over the next three years while 25% expect to decrease. That stands in contrast to the results of KBW’s prior survey, where active equity was poised to lose market share.

    International equities are expected to fare particularly well.

    “Within equity strategies 60% expect to increase their allocation to international strategies, suggesting that incremental demand could flow mainly to international strategies,” KBW analysts led by Robert Lee reported in a news release.

    Benefiting from this trend will be asset managers with large international equity businesses, such as Franklin Resources (BEN), BlackRock (BLK), Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) and T. Rowe Price (TROW), KBW reports. Another company likely to benefit is cross-border index provider and exchange-traded fund (ETF) licensor MSCI Inc. (MSCI).

    In fact, BlackRock (BLK) seems particularly well positioned among publicly traded traditional managers to benefit from some of the trends identified in the report. These trends also should be generally favorable for alternative managers Blackstone (BX), Fortress (FIG), KKR (KKR), and Och-Ziff (OZM).

    More highlights from the KBW Winter 2011 CIO Survey:

    • Alternatives and passive strategies are attractive, while fixed income could lose a little market share.“Consistent with our last survey respondents generally expect to increase their allocations to passive and alternative strategies, but in contrast to our last survey fixed income strategies look set to lose some market share, a victim of the ultra low rate environment,” according to KBW’s equity researchers. “However, it appears that the trend to passive strategies may be somewhat less than many observers perceive, although it remains generally positive.”
    • About 41% of respondents expect to increase their allocations to hedge fund strategies versus only 7% that expect to decrease their allocations.
    • 23% of respondents expect to increase their private-equity allocations and 36% expect to increase their real estate allocations.

    Designed to gain insight into institutional investors’ asset allocation and manager selection, New York-based KBW’s CIO survey extends to decision makers at corporate and government pension plans, endowments, foundations and investment managers. New York-based KBW is an institutionally oriented securities broker-dealer and investment bank that specializes in the finance sector.

    Read about KBW’s forecast for mutual fund flows at AdvisorOne.com.

    US Bancorp: The One Big Bank You Never Hear About

    While Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) dominate the headlines, there is one large bank that just slowly continues to grow away from the limelight. That bank is US Bancorp (USB). US Bank took TARP funds just like the other big banks but unlike the other big banks has been able to escape the public backlash.

    US Bank has been a longtime Buffett holding because of the company’s great management team and conservative approach to lending. The company’s management is a big reason why the banking giant’s loan portfolio has been outperforming that of its banking peers. Its non performing loans percentage is much lower than Citigroup (C) and Bank of America. US Bank is the 5th largest bank in the U.S. based on asset size. It has been quietly increasing its size by buying up failed banks over the past year. There have been continuous rumors that US Bancorp may acquire a larger regional bank to expand its operations.

    US Bancorp has reported nearly two consecutive years of profitability. Last quarter’s earnings were very solid. USB had earnings of $648 million dollars and an EPS of 34 cents per share. Profitability increased 55% and total deposits increased almost 14%. The encouraging news was that consumer loan delinquency was decelerating even as the bank was increasing its reserves for loan losses. Investors should pay attention to the July 21st earnings release to see how US Bancorp’s sizeable commercial loan portfolio is holding up.

    US Bank pays out a much higher dividend than its banking competitors. Shares of US Bancorp are not expensive but are not particularly cheap either at $23. Shares trade at 11 times forward earnings and 1.8 times book value.

    Top Stocks For 2011-12-9-7

    DrStockPick.com Stock Report!

    Wednesday, July 22, 2009

    The Board of Directors of The Pepsi Bottling Group, Inc. (NYSE: PBG) has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.18 per share on PBG’s common stock. The dividend is payable September 30, 2009 to PBG shareholders of record on September 4, 2009.

    Acxiom(R) Corporation (Nasdaq: ACXM) expects to issue its FY 2010 first quarter earnings release on Wednesday, July 29, following market close. A conference call will be held at 4:30 p.m. CDT the same day to discuss the results.

    Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE:TSN) today announced an exchange offer for its outstanding 10.50% Senior Notes due 2014. These notes were originally issued March 9, 2009, in a private offering in an aggregate principal amount of $810,000,000. Holders of these notes may exchange them for an equal principal amount of a new issue of 10.50% Senior Notes due 2014 pursuant to an effective registration statement on Form S-4 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    Monarch Bank (Nasdaq: MNRK), a subsidiary of Monarch Financial Holdings, Inc., has been named one of the “Best Places to Work” in Hampton Roads, Va., by weekly business journal Inside Business. In addition, Monarch was ranked second in mid-sized companies and the only bank recognized on the business journal list.

    L-3 Communications (NYSE: LLL) announced today that its Mission Integration Division delivered the seventh and final aircraft for Phase 1 of the Project Liberty Aircraft (LPA) program to the U.S. Air Force.

    The Eastern Company (NYSE Amex-EML) today announced the declaration of its regular quarterly cash dividend of nine cents ($0.09) per share, payable September 15, 2009, to common stock shareholders of record as of August 21, 2009. This dividend represents the Company’s 276th consecutive quarterly dividend.

    Empire Resources Inc. (ERSO) Closes 86.34% Higher

    Shares of Empire Resources Inc. (OTC: ERSO) climbed more than 90% in today�s trading. The OTC stock reached a high of $3.32 in trading closing 86.34% higher at $3, with volume up from daily average of 11,000 to 274,132. New Jersey-based Empire Resources is involved in the purchase, sale and distribution of principally semi-finished aluminum products. The company distributes its products to customers in the transportation, automotive, housing appliance and packaging industries. Its customers are spread out all across the globe.

    The spike in the OTC stock came after the company announced its first-quarter results. The company reported first-quarter net income of $2,698,000, up from $218,000 reported for the same period last year. Diluted EPS increased from $0.02 reported last year to $0.29 in the first quarter of this year. Sales climbed 86% to $120,126,000 in the quarter.

    Earlier in March, the company�s board of directors declared a cash dividend of $0.025 per share. The company�s board plans to review its dividend policy on a quarterly basis. Future dividend payments will be determined by the board after taking into account profitability, cash flow and other requirements of the company�s business.

    The OTC stock has a 52-week range of $0.90-$3.32, with the high of $3.32 reached in today�s trading. It has a beta of 0.91. Currently, the OTC stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

    About BeaconEquity.com

    BeaconEquity.com is committed to producing the highest-quality insight and analysis of small cap stocks, emerging technology stocks,hot penny stocks and helping investors make informed decisions. Our focus is primarily on the underserved OTC stocks market, or �penny stock� market, which has traditionally been shunned by Wall Street. We have particular expertise with renewable energy stocks, biotech stocks, oil stocks, green energy stocks and internet stocks. There are many hot penny stock opportunities present in the OTC market everyday and we seek to exploit these hot stock gains for our members before the average daytrader is aware of them.

    John Deere: Short-Term Hurdles, Long-Term Vision

    This past week, John Deere (DE) reported stronger than expected first-quarter earnings of $1.30 per share versus the $1.23 that Wall Street expected. The stock sold off 5% on the news in large part because as earnings beat the street's expectations, sales grew at a tepid 8%. Though analysts saw this as a cause for concern, the stock still delivered strong earnings. The results are as follows:

    (John Deere First Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call)

    These earnings point to DE's strength, but they do not tell the whole story because what is most important for the long-term vision of this company is the reinvestment that DE is planning. These results are being delivered without the eight factories that are planned for the next few years and without DE coming into new markets with its products.This has the ability to set DE apart from its largest rival Caterpillar (CAT) in the long-term due to the company's commitment to reinvesting in its future. Samuel R. Allen, DE CEO and Chairman, states:

    By completing another quarter of record performance, John Deere has started 2012 on a strong note. These results are evidence of the skillful execution of our operating and marketing plans. They also reflect an enthusiastic response by customers worldwide to our advanced lines of equipment. Maintaining such a high level of execution is especially noteworthy as we move ahead with major new-product launches and significantly expand our global market presence.

    The combination of DE's long-term growth strategy, past record, commitment to shareholders, and financial strength makes DE a company poised for long-term vitality. Even if the company experiences some short-term hurdles in commodity prices or economic variances, DE reinvestment into its future will pay off in the future and set it apart from its largest competitors.

    Why DE is poised for long-term vitality:

    Reinvestment:

    What is most impressive about DE is its apparent commitment to reinvesting in its future and allowing its products to reach as many countries and demographics as possible. The company's plans can be seen in the visual representation below. These tangible reinvestments will help prepare DE for a future where globalization will drive its business. Through DE is modernizing its current plants and building new ones, DE is positioning itself for long-term vitality.


    (John Deere First Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call)

    Growth Prospects:

    What sparked fear in Wall Street about the company's earnings were its sales results. The 8% increase in total sales was not as high as expected, but the company still kept in place its 15% total sales growth it expects in 2012. From a long-term investment perspective, DE is putting massive amounts of cash into reinvestment into its infrastructure (above) and this is what will drive sales into the coming years. Though these results may not have been strong enough for Wall Street in the short-term, these are by no means poor results or poor expectations for 2012. Investors should pay notice to the company's sales growth in the coming quarters, but should not lose sight of the long-term vitality of the company and its future prospects.

    (John Deere First Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call)

    Commitment to stockholders:

    DE is by no means considered a high-yielding stock, but the company has maintained over the past few years and continued into today a strategy for rewarding investors for their investment. The key to any company's success is to have a clear-cut, nimble, and exercisable strategy that can yield results into the future. DE has demonstrated this commitment through its repurchasing program as well as its dividend of 2%. The graphic below illustrates the clear-cut and deliberate strategy of DE into the future.


    (John Deere First Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call)

    Financials:

    • Forward price/Earnings Ratio: 10.0. This PE ratio puts the company in line with its competitors and does not point to an excessive valuation.
    • PEG Ratio: .99. This PEG ratio illustrates that the company's valuation (in the context of its growth) is not high and is within a reasonable range.
    • Cash-Debt: -$24.88 billion. Although this is a high debt level, the company has a strong income flow and in the context of its current financials does not prove to be excessive.
    • Return on Equity: 42.32%. This ROE is very impressive because it speaks to the company's ability to utilize its capital. With the current expectation for growth that De has, this gives tangible evidence for the ability the company has to utilize its capital efficiently.


    (CNBC)
    Conclusion: DE is a company planning for the future and a globalizing world. Due to the company's commitment to reinvesting in its future, the company's growth prospects, the company's clear strategy, and sound financials, DE is in a position to thrive over the coming decade. Though the company may have short-term hurdles to jump, its long-term integrity remains intact.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Stocks to Watch: Hewlett-Packard, Transatlantic

    Gilead Sciences (GILD) agreed to buy Pharmasset (VRUS) for $137 a share in cash.

    The deal values Pharmasset at about $11 billion. The transaction price is an 89% premium to Pharmasset's closing price Friday of $72.67.

    See if (HPQ) is in our portfolio

    Pfizer(PFE) will pay more than $60 million to settle federal probes into whether it paid bribes to win business outside the U.S., according to The Wall Street Journal.The settlements are expected to be made public by the end of the year, according to the report, published Sunday on the Journal's Web site. The report cited anonymous sources familiar with the situation. Shares were falling 1.5% to $19.24 in premarket trading Monday. Hewlett-Packard(HPQ), the computer and printer maker, reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the closing bell Monday.The report is the first under CEO Meg Whitman's watch, who joined the company in the middle of the quarter.Analysts expect HP to earn $1.13 a share on revenue of $32.06 billion.Shares were falling 1% to $27.70. Western Digital(WDC), the Irvine, Calif.-based producer of computer-storage technology, said an arbitrator in Minnesota has ruled against the company in a dispute with Seagate Technology(STX), and awarded Seagate $525 million plus interest. Seagate shares were down 0.3% to $15.96. Earnings are expected Monday from Analog Devices (ADI) and Brocade Communications(BRCD). Shares were unchanged at $4.64. Insurance company Alleghany (Y) is buying Transatlantic Holdings (TRH) for $3.4 billion. Under the deal, Transatlantic shareholders will receive a per share amount of $14.22 in cash and 0.145 Alleghany shares. That's a total value of $59.79 a share. A deal with Alleghany will help Transatlantic ward off rival Validus Holdings (VR), which has launched a hostile bid for Transatlantic. Tyson Foods (TSN) is expected by analysts to post fiscal second-quarter earnings of 51 cents a share on revenue of $329.5 million. -- Written by Joseph Woelfel and Andrea Tse>To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com. Bank of America Kicks Off Shareholder Dilution

    >To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints

    Wal-Mart Hits 10-Year High Despite Shareholder Rebuke

    Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) stock has been on a roll since the company posted better than expected first quarter earnings last week. Today, they touched a new 10-year high of $63.95.

    Wal-Mart stock wobbled a few weeks ago on a New York Times investigation said top company officials had failed to pursue bribery allegations. Today CalSTRS, the California teachers’ retirement system, saidit will vote against all current Wal-Mart board members because of poor oversight. CalSTRS holds 5.3 million shares.

    But, despite the controversy, Wal-Mart’s first quarter report vaulted the stock to new levels. the company continues to grow same store sale sin the U.S.

    Tuesday, October 30, 2012

    LIN TV Beats on Both Top and Bottom Lines

    LIN TV (NYSE: TVL  ) reported earnings on May 9. Here are the numbers you need to know.

    The 10-second takeaway
    For the quarter ended March 31 (Q1), LIN TV beat slightly on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

    Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew and GAAP earnings per share expanded significantly.

    Gross margins dropped, operating margins improved, net margins improved.

    Revenue details
    LIN TV logged revenue of $103.2 million. The two analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ looked for net sales of $101.7 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 11% higher than the prior-year quarter's $92.6 million.

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

    EPS details
    EPS came in at $0.12. The two earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ anticipated $0.08 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.08 for Q1 were 167% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.03 per share.

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

    Margin details
    For the quarter, gross margin was 65.9%, 60 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 19.8%, 270 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 4.1%, 240 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

    Looking ahead
    Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $114.9 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.19.

    Next year's average estimate for revenue is $471.5 million. The average EPS estimate is $0.90.

    Investor sentiment
    The stock has a one-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 39 members out of 72 rating the stock outperform, and 33 members rating it underperform. Among 18 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), four give LIN TV a green thumbs-up, and 14 give it a red thumbs-down.

    Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on LIN TV is buy, with an average price target of $5.00.

    Over the decades, small-cap stocks like LIN TV have provided market-beating returns, provided they're value priced and have solid businesses. Read about a pair of companies with a lock on their markets in "Too Small to Fail: Two Small Caps the Government Won't Let Go Broke." Click here for instant access to this free report.

    • Add LIN TV to My Watchlist.

    This Yield Proves Too Good to Be True

    LONDON -- Hansard (LSE: HSD.L  ) plunged 21 pence, or 18%, to 97 pence in early London trading this morning after investors realized the share's 12% dividend yield was in fact too good to be true.

    The specialist savings provider today announced annual profits had plunged from 17 million pounds to 11 million pounds, although its full-year dividend would be lifted by 1% to 13.9 pence per share. Prior to today, Hansard's shares had been offering a 12% income based on this forthcoming payout.

    However, Hansard added that now was "an appropriate time to adjust the dividend to a level commensurate with the surplus cash generated by the business." The firm currently expects to cut the payout for the year to June 2013 by 42% to 8 pence per share.

    The dividend chop comes as Hansard struggles in the wake of the eurozone crisis. The "continued instability" of the single currency caused single-premium new business sales to slump 53% to 51 million pounds, and the group admitted it did not anticipate the position to be improved within the next few years.

    Also in the mix is litigation in Norway, whereby the company has suffered an adverse ruling in relation to writs of 11 million pounds. Hansard anticipates "continuing additional expenditure" to address existing and new cases concerning "the selection and performance of assets/"

    Right now, Hansard's yield at 97 pence is 8%. That income is well above that offered by the wider FTSE, but this 133 million-pound market-cap business does have its issues.

    So, if you are seeking high-dividend opportunities from larger, more reliable sources, this special free report could assist you in your investment decisions.

    The report reveals the favorite FTSE 100 income stocks held by Neil Woodford, the U.K.'s leading equity income stockpicker, who thrashed the market during the 15 years to 2011 by favoring megacap dividend plays. You can download this special dividend report today for free.

    Investing is by no means easy in today's uncertain economy. That's why we've published "Three Top Sectors" -- our guide to three favorable industries. This free report will be dispatched immediately to your inbox.

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    Maynard does not own any share mentioned in this article.

    Stocks set to rise

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks were poised to open higher Friday in the wake of JPMorgan's second-quarter earnings and disclosure that it has lost $5.8 billion on a trading blunder so far this year.

    Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) futures were up about 0.4%. Stock futures indicate the possible direction of the markets when they open at 9:30 a.m. ET.

    JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) reported earnings of $5 billion on revenue of $22.9 billion. Its shares oscillated wildly near breakeven in premarket trading after the bank said its pretax trading loss from risky derivatives totals $5.8 billion so far this year.

    In a separate filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, JPMorgan stated it recently discovered insiders possibly hid significant data, "seeking to avoid showing the full amount of the losses being incurred in the portfolio." The bank restated its first-quarter results, lowering net income by $459 million.

    Combined with further signs of a Chinese economic slowdown and continuing worries in Europe, it might seem odd that markets are responding well. Not so, said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Pittsburgh.

    "Bad news is good news," he said. "There's now a heightened probably that the Federal Reserve will step in with some quantitative easing program beyond Operation Twist."

    Fear & Greed Index

    The government reported prices in June rose by 0.1%, despite expectations that they would fall by more than half a percent. A report on consumer sentiment will follow later Friday morning.

    Anxiety remains about the European debt crisis. Investors are concerned that political headwinds in Europe will stymie the latest rescue plan for the euro currency union, which eurozone leaders announced at a summit meeting late last month.

    On Friday, Moody's downgraded Italy's government debt two levels, citing an increased likelihood the country will be slammed by higher borrowing costs. The culprits: possible contagion from troubles in Greece and Spain.

    "Italy's near-term economic outlook has deteriorated," Moody's said in a statement.

    Yields on the Italian 10-year bonds fluctuated little, remaining at 5.99%.

    U.S. stocks fell Thursday as fears about a global economic slowdown and disappointing corporate results weighed on the market.

    World markets: European stocks rose in afternoon trading. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) added 0.5%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany gained 0.9% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) ticked up 0.5%.

    Figures released on China's economy added fuel to the notion of a global slowdown. In the second quarter, GDP in China grew at an annual pace of 7.6%, the lowest in three years and a deceleration from the 8.1% growth rate it saw the previous quarter.

    Asian markets ended just above breakeven. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) and Japan's Nikkei (N225) closed slightly higher, while the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong added about 0.4%.

    Economy: The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for July is due at 9:55 a.m. ET. It's expected to come in at 73.5, up from 73.2 last month.

    California bankruptcies are only the beginning

    Companies: Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) is posted earnings of 82 cents on $21.4 billion in revenue, on par with expectations. Shares of the bank fell almost 1% in premarket trading. On Thursday, the Department of Justice announced the bank agreed to pay $175 million to settle allegations that it discriminated against minority borrowers.

    Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained versus the euro, but lost ground against the British pound and Japanese yen.

    Oil for August delivery rose 57 cents to $86.65 a barrel.

    Gold futures for August delivery rose $13.30 to $1,578.60 an ounce.

    Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury was little changed, with the yield up holding steady at 1.48% from late Thursday.  

    Westport: Engine innovations


    We use a vast quantity of diesel, and if we could replace it with something else, it would be a serious game-changer. If that fuel were cleaner and cheaper, then the diesel dominos would begin to fall, and quick.

    In fact, natural gas costs half as much as diesel. And it is abundant, clean and can be domestically sourced. And I've found a stock that is the strongest pure play on this trend -- Westport Innovations (WPRT), which makes natural gas engines.

    Natural gas has the ability to displace billions of gallons of diesel, not only on the road but in marine applications and for heavy equipment. This is an area that has several key tailwinds behind it -- enough to where I think it can legitimately be called the inevitable future.

    Westport Innovations' natural gas engines that are cost-competitive with diesel engines and have 80% of the parts in common. It manufactures engines in three divisions:

    1. Light duty, which serves the automotive and small industrial (such as forklifts) sector.

    2. The heavy-duty division, which uses an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) engine, but adds special drop-in equipment to enable these behemoths to use natural gas.
    3. Joint venture Cummins Westport Inc., owned 50/50 with the world's leading diesel maker, which produces natural gas-powered engines for larger trucks and tractor-trailers.

    A fourth business unit, Weichai Westport, is engaged in bringing these engines to China, which has a rapidly expanding commercial vehicle and heavy-equipment fleet as well as a large reserve of natural gas.

    Westport has a market cap of just under $2 billion, which is right in the sweet spot for the types of companies I like to recommend.

    The company had 2011 revenue of $264.7 million, an 83.3% gain from the year before, and an impressive compound annual growth rate of 39% since 2007. It's also -- surprisingly for an alternative energy company -- solidly profitable.

    Net earnings in 2001 came in at 37%, and Westport hasn't seen its bottom line fall below a 26% net margin since 2008. How's that measure up? Only 34 companies on the S&P 500 can beat that level of profitability.

    A number of factors have converged to form what looks a lot like the perfect storm for natural gas to become a substantial fuel source.

    Supply and pricing dynamics, industry support, continuing infrastructure development, strong political support and international opportunity -- it's all there.

    But let me be clear: None of this is theoretical. It's here. It's happening. Natural gas has been the star of the show, literally, at several industry events so far this year.

    Major manufacturers are embracing what Westport is doing. Its auto contact list is a Who's Who: GM, Hyundai, Peugeot, and Citroen. On the large truck side, highway travelers will recognize names like Kenworth, Peterbilt, Freightliner, Navistar and Mack Truck.

    Right now, the stock is trading near the lower end of its 52-week range, which is admittedly a wide one. The stock has traded as high as about $50 and as low as $20 in the past year, so be prepared for a bit of volatility.

    But I've just scratched the surface. T. Boone Pickens noted that the United States has three times more natural gas than Saudi Arabia has oil, "and it's right here in the United States."

    Natural gas also clearly has White House and Congressional support, and it is gaining serious traction abroad, especially in China. The prime candidate to invest in the space is clearly the pure play, Westport.

    Related articles:
    • Enerplus: Beaten down buy
    • Solazyme: Fuel from algae?
    • Anadarko: Tapping into the Gulf
    • Million dollar buys: 3 'game-changers'

    Four High Yield REITs for Current Income

    One asset class that dividend investors could use in order to diversify their portfolios is real estate. The sector includes rental real estate on residential buildings, offices, malls etc. Owning a piece of rental real estate outright however comes with headaches, such as dealing with tenants and not being properly diversified. In order to avoid managing buildings and finding tenants, investors could use real estate investment trusts (REITs).

    Real estate investment trusts own different types of real estate, and they offer instant liquidity to investors, since most are publicly traded. In addition to that REITs are required to distribute almost all of their earnings back to shareholders. As a result REITs are not taxed at the corporate level, but distributions from earnings are typically taxed as ordinary income. The rest of distributions from REITs are typically treated as returns of capital, which reduce your basis and would be taxable as a capital gain if you sell your shares.

    Real Estate Investment Trusts offer instant diversification to investors, as most of them typically own hundreds of properties across many states. In addition to that, since they distribute all of their earnings to shareholders, their yields are typically much higher than yields on stocks. An important metric for evaluating REITs is Funds from operations (FFO). FFO is defined as net income available to common stockholders, plus depreciation and amortization of real estate assets, reduced by gains on sales of investment properties and extraordinary items.

    Most REITs have rather stable revenues and as a result are able to maintain and even consistently raise distributions over time. I have highlighted four trusts for further research:

    Realty Income Corporation (O) engages in the acquisition and ownership of commercial retail real estate properties in the United States. The company leases its retail properties primarily to regional and national retail chain store operators. Realty Income is widely known among its investors as the monthly dividend company. The company is a dividend achiever, which has increased its dividend for 15 years in a row by raising its monthly distributions several times per year. (analysis)

    Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT) operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States. The company invests in health care and human service related facilities, including acute care hospitals, behavioral healthcare facilities, rehabilitation hospitals, sub-acute facilities, surgery centers, childcare centers, and medical office buildings. The company is a dividend achiever and has raised distributions for 22 consecutive years. (analysis)

    Health Care Property Investors, Inc. (HCP) operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States. The company invests in health care-related properties and provides mortgage financing on health care facilities. This dividend achiever has raised distributions for 24 consecutive years. (analysis)

    National Retail Properties, Inc. (NNN) is a publicly owned equity real estate investment trust. The firm acquires, owns, manages, and develops retail properties in the United States. It provides complete turn-key and built-to-suit development services including market analysis, site selection and acquisition, entitlements, permitting, and construction management. The firm also focuses on purchasing and financing net-leased retail properties. The company is a dividend achiever as well as a component of the S&P 1500 index. It has been increasing its dividends for the past 20 consecutive years. (analysis)

    While I generally find these companies attractive, each one has its own risks. Realty Income(O) has slowed the growth in distributions, and its FFO payout ratio is above 90%. In addition to that the rate of vacancies there has increased over the past few years, as the number of assets under management has increased.

    National Retail Properties (NNN) has not raised distributions since 2008. The company does have a lower vacancy rate than Realty Income and in addition to that has a much lower FFO payout ratio. If the company doesn’t raise distributions by the end of 2010, it would lose its dividend achiever status.

    Fifty-one percent of Universal Health Realty Income's revenues are derived from leases to Universal Health Services. UHT’s advisor is a subsidiary of UHS, and all officers of Universal Health Realty are employees of UHS, which could create conflicts of interest.

    One warning statistic for Health Care Property Investors, Inc. is the fact that average occupancy percentage for Senior Housing has dropped from 95% in 2005 to 86% in 2009. This occupancy ratio represents occupancy and unit/bed amounts as reported by the respective tenants or operators. Certain operators in HCP Inc’s hospital portfolio are not required under their respective leases to provide operational data however. The company’s focus on senior living facilities should benefit from increasing demand by retiring baby boomers. There will be a significant increase in the number of people over the age of 65 in the US over the next decade, which would be beneficial to overall healthcare facilities.

    Overall, I like the stable income streams generated by real estate investment trusts. I believe that getting exposure to real estate through REITs could not only help in diversifying your income portfolio, but also boost your current yield. In addition to that most REITs also grow distributions, which provides some hedge against inflation.

    Disclosure: Long O, NNN, UHT

    2011 Review: Cell Therapeutics

    Now that the sun has set on 2011, it is an excellent time to go back and review how the past 12 months treated some of the most popular stocks. Let's take a closer look at the year that was for popular biotech Cell Therapeutics (Nasdaq: CTIC  ) .

    Cell Therapeutics Stock Chart by YCharts

    After starting the year at a split-adjusted $2.22 a share, Cell Therapeutics stock lost almost 50% of its value by the end of December, closing at $1.16. How did we get here?

    It all starts in 2010, when the FDA rejected Cell Therapeutics' non-Hodgkin's lymphoma treatment and lead drug candidate pixantrone. Therefore, 2011 found Cell Therapeutics hanging on and fighting to get an approval. The company appealed the complete response letter, which didn't get the decision reversed but did get it another crack at the review process, with the FDA accepting its marketing application in early December. To keep the lights on, the company has had 2 dilutive offers this year raising $50 million, the second coming right after the stock popped 24% on the most recent FDA announcement.

    If the company were confident in approval, it would have more sense to wait until a final decision was made to raise additional capital. This should give investors pause. However, we will find out early in 2012 whether Cell Therapeutics' Hail Mary results in a game-changing touchdown. Europe's version of the FDA, the CHMP, will decide on pixantrone in January, and the FDA decision should come in April. �

    In the meantime, add Cell Therapeutics to your watchlist and don't miss any of our ongoing coverage.

    Looking for our prediction for 2012? Check out The Motley Fool's brand-new report, "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2012." It highlights a company that's revolutionizing commerce in Latin America. You can get instant access to the name of this company by clicking here -- it's free.

    Know Who You Are Dealing With

    Given the breach of trust of many so-called investment managers, financial planners, stock brokers, financial advisors, or whatever name they are calling themselves today, it is no wonder why people are so fearful of handing over their life’s savings to anyone.

    But is it just the recent overall devastation to people’s portfolios that makes them more suspicious about their advisors? Did this broadside salvo to their investment portfolio cause them to question their statements in an effort to lay the blame at someone’s feet? Or did the loss of value in the portfolios cause the schemes so easily perpetrated in an up market to unravel in a much more visible and precipitous way?

    Whether it was an internal rush for answers between the advisor and the client or the external mounting pressure to keep up the games that forced the bad apples to start to smell, the knowledge of who you are dealing should be a high priority.

    In August, a very friendly chap, the kind you would want to invite to your child’s graduation and your daughter’s wedding, one you would trust with your mother’s money, was not only barred from the industry but indicted by the US Attorney’s office in South Carolina. Seems he was taking money from widows and Alzheimer’s patients and having a really good time on their money. He paid for his son’s wedding and many other amenities from the money he gathered from unsuspecting clients who trusted him implicitly. He pulled off this scam for over twenty years. He was tripped up by the daughter of a woman who wondered why her mother never got any statements showing performance of the funds in the annuity. The fool offered her a bogus $10,000 certificate if she would not go to the authorities. Dumb move #1! Then he offered her a letter he told her came from his compliance department stating that he was reprimanded for his intransigence. Except he made up the letter. Dumb move #2! She called his bluff and went to the authorities who lowered the boom.

    Needless to say, he got the book thrown at him.

    But what prevents that from happening to you? A la Madoff, these perpetrators are without question, the friendliest, most engaging, enrolling, extroverts around. Why shouldn’t you trust them? Especially when your friends and family recommend them. The stories abound on a national regional and certainly local level of those who were the most respected and well-known who have fleeced money from the savviest and the brightest.

    What can you do to learn about whom it is you are dealing with? Well, fortunately, there is a database of complaints, warnings, suspensions and outright indictments of people in the business. Some of them have not mended their ways and were barred for life from the business. Others have had their wrists slapped and warnings issued and it seems they have found the straight and narrow. But, of course, buyer beware.

    If you use your search engine on the Web, you can simply enter, “broker search” and end up at a site fed by FINRA (the acronym for the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority). At this site, this self-regulatory agency collects data that, for most of us, would normally be under the radar. This agency can tell you a lot of information about anyone who is registered to sell securities. All you have to do is put in the person’s name and lots of information will show up: where they are employed, how long they have been employed by the current employer, who they worked for in the past, and most importantly, if there are any Customer Disputes, Disciplinary, or Regulatory Events on record for this person.

    And of course, not all people are on this registry. Those who are Registered Financial Advisors or a representative of this Registered Investment Advisor, like me, will not show up on that website. We are covered under a different authority, the PA State Securities Commission. Again, search for it by name. Once you get to the site, choose the Enforcement page, and then the Request for Information form. You can select the name of the person and/or the advisory firm you would like information on.

    It may appear that it is a tedious and maybe onerous chore to find out what there is to know about the people you trust to manage your money. But when you consider the alternative, the few minutes it takes to get that information is worth a lifetime of pain and self-incrimination.

    Lynn S. Evans, CFP(R), is a specialist in retirement planning for executives, professionals, and business owners. She is a licensed practitioner of The New Retirementality programs. Go to her personal website, http://www.lynnsevans.com to get more information.

    Monday, October 29, 2012

    Top-10 Energy Stocks: EnerNOC

    The following video is part of our "Motley Fool Conversations" series, in which analyst John Reeves and advisor David Meier discuss topics across the investing world.

    EnerNOC is ranked number nine in Dave's top-10 energy stocks. He feels the company has a real edge in relation to its competitors, and thinks the company will perform well over the long term. The video concludes with Dave's recommendation on the stock.

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    Finding an Appropriate Sell Price for Eli Lilly and Apple: A Tale of Two Extremes

    The main thrust of this analysis is concentrated in three parts. The first two parts are based on free cash flow (current and historical) and the third is based on historical price action as a gauge of investor sentiment.

    The three methods used in this analysis are:

  • Price to Owners Earnings (OE) = Current and future analysis
  • Cumulative Owners Earnings (COE) = Historical analysis of owners earnings
  • Statistical Indicator Analysis (SIA) = Historical price action
  • For those new to this analysis please link here for an introduction:

    • OE and COE
    • SIA
    • CapFlow

    The main goal of my analysis is first to determine a sell price. With that in mind, we attempt to buy the stock at half its sell price and then hold it for 5 years (provided that no macro- economic negative catalysts force us to sell). Due to the fact that we bought it at par, we can potentially achieve an average annualized return of 15% per year. This may enable us to double our money every 5 years. Occasionally we do find a stock that is not selling at par, but is actually selling at a discount. When this happens, gains are usually higher.

    Analysis of Eli Lilly (LLY) with a brief comparative commentary on Apple (AAPL) (after multiple requests to do so from readers)

    Investing in the Pharmaceutical industry these days requires one to think outside of the box. If you listen to the mainstream financial press or the majority of Wall Street Analysts, you would think the industry is doomed to failure. We on the other hand love to invest in industries where investor sentiment is very negative and where there is blood in the streets. Eli Lilly is a company that has been a growth stock superstar for decades and until recently has been untouchable for the value investor. But that is no longer the case and I would say the exact opposite scenario is present. Not only can the value investor invest in Lilly with confidence, but the Graham deep value investor can do so as well.

    In analyzing the company, I was amazed to find it trading at such extreme discounts to its buy price and in a million years would have never expected to be able to pick up Lilly shares at these prices. But talk is cheap so let me give you some numbers.

    Here is my analysis of Eli Lilly using my proprietary system:

    The following is an Owners Earnings (OE) table of Eli Lilly from 1973-2010 (with Estimates)

    The first thing you’ll notice in the table above is the tremendous amount of Owners Earnings (OE) that the company has generated over the years. But what is truly amazing is how much they have pumped out in the last four years. From 2007-2010 (through a major recession) Lilly generated $17.14 in OE per share or about $19.50 billion in OE. When you figure that the company only has a market capitalization of $38 Billion, it becomes clear they are pumping out some amazing numbers in OE. Apple for example has generated about $25 billion over that same period but trades at a $317 billion market capitalization. So basically Lilly is trading at 1.93 to 1 while Apple is 12.68 to 1 (Price to 2007-2010 OE). Apple is generating tremendous amounts of OE and they clearly have investor sentiment in their corner, while Lilly’s investor sentiment is sort of like a ghost town.

    All this is happening because of the expected future patent expiration of key drugs in Lilly’s portfolio and the worry of investors is that growth will be hard to come by in the future. If we take the worst case scenario and say in 2012 that Lilly’s OE will drop down to $3.5 per share, the company at its current price of $34.95 would still be trading at 10 times their OE and still be pumping out over $4 billion a year in OE.

    Instead of following my usual pattern of generating my sell prices from 2010 estimates let's use the $3.50 2012 OE number for LLY as our guide and do a worst case scenario analysis. Therefore, as we like to sell at thirty times our Price to OE (P/OE) we get 30 X $3.50 = $105 as our P/OE sell price.

    Since we are going out to 2012 in our analysis, let's add another $8 (2011 + 2012) to our Cumulative Owners Earnings (COE) final number and we get $56.19. Since we like to sell at two times our COE we have 2 X $56.19 = $112.38 as our COE Sell Price.

    Before we get to the SIA Sell price let’s discuss what management is doing to control costs in preparation for what will be tough times for the industry coming up. The following (click to enlarge) is the CapFlow chart for LLY:

    As you can see from the chart above, management has streamlined the company over the last three years with record low CapFlows. The 11% figure is the lowest figure of any year of the 38 under analysis.

    So management is clearly prepared for the tough times, but I find it hard to believe that with so many years of being able to prepare for many of their patent expirations coming due, that Lilly does not have some serious drugs in the pipeline. After all with so much free cash flow at their disposal, the odds are that they should at least get one blockbuster drug to show up. With over $6 billion in cash to work with, Lilly can literally buy a blockbuster if they need to.

    So with the OE numbers out of the way, let’s turn our attention to investor sentiment and discover what our Statistical Indicator Analysis (SIA) Sell Price is for Lilly? The following are the long term and medium term SIA charts for Lilly (click to enlarge):




    You can clearly see that Lilly was an untouchable stock for years and that it is now trading at a deep discount to its SIA. Its current SIA comes in at $45.37, so with a current stock price of $34.95, we get a result of 0.77 or that Lilly is selling at a 23% discount to its SIA.

    We talked about Apple and its OE before, but let’s look at a chart of Apple’s SIA (click to enlarge) to show you what happens when investor sentiment is fully behind a stock:

    For purposes of disclosure I have had my clients invested in Apple over the last year and a half as their P/OE numbers have never hit my 30 times sell target, but with the recent news on Steve Jobs (one of my idols) and that the stock is trading at 5.43 times its SIA (as shown above), I just could not afford to take the risk any longer. I have had many requests to do a Mycroft Research (MR) Analysis of Apple and I guess this is as good an opportunity as any. The three sell prices for Apple are:

    • P/OE = 30 X $19.10 = $573,
    • COE Sell Price = 2 X $58.46 = $116.92
    • SIA Sell Price = 2 x $63.21 =$126.42

    Added together, that come to $816.34/3 = final sell price of $272.11.

    I would conclude that anything above that price is the “Steve Jobs Premium”.

    The OE growth rate for Apple is blazing hot and that’s why I kept it so long, I have three i-Phones in my house and love their products, but the risk after looking at the SIA chart above was just too great, especially after hearing about Steve Jobs’ recent medical leave. To show you what can happen after a stock or commodity breaks 4.0+ times its SIA, here is the chart for Crude Oil when it hit 4.10 times its SIA at its peak:

    I wish all Apple shareholders good luck, but it just got too hot in that kitchen for me.

    Lilly on the other hand takes us to the opposite extreme in terms of investor sentiment for a stock. Let us now get the final buy and sell prices for Lilly:

    We have the three sell prices, so we can now determine our final sell and buy prices.

    • 1) P/OE = $105 (30 times OE per Share)
    • 2) COE = $112.38 (2 times COE)
    • 3) SIA = $90.74 (2 times SIA)
    • Total = $308.12/3 = $102.70= Sell Price

    Buy Price = $51.35

    Conclusion: Remember that we are using the reduced OE estimates for 2012 for a worst case scenario and we still have Lilly trading at a 32% discount to our buy price. So with Lilly and Apple you have two extremes going on simultaneously. As a prudent man, I will go with Lilly and take my 5.6% dividend and wait for a turn around and at the same time wish my idol Steve Jobs a quick recovery.


    Disclosure: I am long LLY but have no position in AAPL

    Disclaimer: Always remember that these are the results of our research based on the methodology that I have outlined above and in other articles previously published. This research is provided as an educational tool and should not be considered investment advice, but just the results of our research. There are many ways to analyze a stock and you should never blindly follow anyone’s work without doing your own due diligence or by seeking the help of an investment advisor, if you so need one. As Registered Investment Advisors, we see it as our responsibility to advise the following: We take our research seriously, we do our best to get it right, and we “eat our own cooking,” but we could be wrong. Please note, investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Past performance cannot be used as an indicator to determine future results. Strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. We do not know your personal financial situation, so the information contained in this communiqué represents the opinions of Peter “Mycroft” Psaras, and should not be construed as personalized investment advice. Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. Before acting on any information mentioned, it is recommended to seek advice from a qualified tax or investment adviser to determine whether it is suitable for your specific situation.