Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Walmart to Make Black Friday a 5-Day Event

US-ECONOMY-RETAIL-BLACK FRIDAY Robyn Beck, AFP/Getty ImagesShoppers consider televisions for sale at the Walmart in Los Angeles on Black Friday last year. | Thanksgiving and Black Friday just weren't enough. With a string of retailers pushing their sales ever earlier on Thanksgiving day, Walmart's shifting gears this year by extending its Black Friday discounts through the entire weekend. Still, that's not to say the retailer will miss out on the Thanksgiving buzz. Walmart (WMT) will once again kick off its Black Friday deals at 6 p.m. Thursday, in line with competitors such as Target (TGT) and Sears (SHLD), and one hour later than Best Buy (BBY), Toys R Us and J.C. Penney (JCP). "Black Friday is no longer about waking up at the crack of dawn to stand in long lines," said Duncan Mac Naughton, chief merchandising officer at Walmart U.S. "It's become a family shopping tradition where everyone shops at some point throughout the weekend." On Thursday, Walmart will kick off its sales event with discounts across a number of categories, including toys, DVD and Blu-ray movies, and kitchen appliances. Sample deals from this group include an Elsa doll from "Frozen," which will sell for $28.88 and 800 DVD and Blu-ray movie titles that will sell for between $1.96 and $9.96. Two hours later, it will offer markdowns across electronics such as a Beats by Dr. Dre portable speakers, for $99.95, or a $100 savings. Walmart will then give shoppers 30 percent off on entire categories from 6 a.m. to noon Friday through Sunday, and hold additional sales on categories such as cellphones and diamonds also on those days. The retailer will also hold online sales throughout the weekend, kicking off at midnight Thursday, and will offer free shipping on its top 100 gifts. Target last month announced that it will offer free shipping on all online purchases through Dec. 20. A number of retailers, including Walmart, Amazon.com (AMZN) and Target, have already kicked off Black Friday sales in some capacity. Like Walmart, Target will also extend certain Black Friday deals through Saturday. "You've seen a number of retailers pull forward their events ... and you're seeing a lot of activity, which tells me [this holiday is] going to be very competitive," Mac Naughton said. Walmart is trying to stabilize its U.S. business, which has posted a string of disappointing same-store sales figures. Last holiday, its same-store sales fell 0.4 percent. For 2014, Walmart spokeswoman Deisha Barnett said the retailer has increased its Black Friday inventory in every category. Walmart will report its third-quarter earnings Thursday.

Thursday, November 6, 2014

Zynga Inc (ZNGA) Earnings Report: Is Time Running Out? GLUU & KING

The Q3 2014 earnings report for small cap social media gaming stock Zynga Inc (NASDAQ: ZNGA), a potential peer of mobile gaming stock Glu Mobile Inc (NASDAQ: GLUU) and interactive entertainment stock King Digital Entertainment PLC (NYSE: KING), is scheduled for after the market closes on Thursday (November 6th). Aside from the Zynga Inc earnings report, it should be said that Glu Mobile Inc reported Q3 2014 earnings on October 29th (shares fell on profit expectations and missed revenue forecasts) while King Digital Entertainment PLC will also report Q3 2014 earnings after the market closes on Thursday. However, Zynga Inc has long struggled and has worked hard to come out from under the shadow of Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) but Wall Street and investor patience may be running out.

What Should You Watch Out for With the Zynga Inc Earnings Report?

First, here is a quick recap of Zynga Inc's recent earnings history along with EPS estimate trends from the Yahoo! Finance analyst estimates page:

Earnings HistorySep 13Dec 13Mar 14Jun 14
EPS Est -0.04 -0.04 -0.01 0.00
EPS Actual -0.02 -0.03 -0.01 0.00
Difference 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00
Surprise % 50.00% 25.00% 0.00% N/A
 
EPS TrendsCurrent Qtr.
Sep 14Next Qtr.
Dec 14Current Year
Dec 14Next Year
Dec 15
Current Estimate -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.04
7 Days Ago -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.04
30 Days Ago -0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.04
60 Days Ago -0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.04
90 Days Ago 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.06

 

Back in early August, Zynga Inc reported a 34% year over year revenue decrease (plus a decrease of 9% from Q1 2014) to $153 million as online game revenue fell 36% (plus a decrease of 1% from Q1 2014) to $131 million and advertising and other revenue fell 19% (plus a decrease of 38% from Q1 2014) to $22 million. FarmVille 2 and Zynga Poker accounted for 32% and 24% of online game revenue, respectively, for the second quarter of 2014 verses to 30% and 24%, respectively, for the first quarter of 2014 but as of June 30, 2014, cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were approximately $1.15 billion verses $1.14 billion as of March 31, 2014. The net loss was $63 million for the second quarter of 2014 verses a net loss of $16 million for the second quarter of 2013 and compared to net loss of $61 million for the first quarter of 2014. The CEO commented:

"We continue to make significant investments in the highest potential areas of our future pipeline. By Q4 of this year, approximately half of our game-related research and development will be allocated to new and recently launched games -- this represents about a 45% increase year over year. We currently have capabilities and brands in content genres with Farm, Words, Casino, Racing and People and we are further diversifying our product portfolio in order to reach more consumers and widen our demographic across more entertainment genres."

And:

"Today we are announcing that we are expanding our game development efforts in two new additional categories: Sports and Runner. Our Sports effort introduces a new franchise brand for us -- Zynga Sports 365 -- and with it, new mobile games in football with the NFL and NFL Players Inc. and in golf with one of the most iconic athletes in the world, Tiger Woods. Our Runner expansion features a new partnership with Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment to bring to life their beloved Looney Tunes brand for mobile consumers. We are pleased to launch the geo-lock for our new football game -- NFL Showdown -- today and look forward to making it, along with our Tiger Woods golf game and Looney Tunes runner game available globally to fans around the world."

However, Zynga Inc has delayed the launch of new versions of several titles, including "Zynga Poker" and "Words with Friends" as well as mobile games from Natural Motion, a studio it bought in January for $527 million.

Hence, analysts and investors alike were not enthused with the former slashing price targets with Macquarie's Benjamin Schachter cutting his target 25% to $3, saying: "So far, Zynga has failed to deliver." And given recently delayed products, he commented "investors will have to wait at least another quarter to find out if Zynga can grow profitably."

What do the Zynga Inc Charts Say?

The latest technical chart for small cap Zynga Inc shows shares have steadily trended downward since a spring time jump:

A long term performance chart shows that investors and traders alike who have a stomach for risk have come out as big winners with Glu Mobile Inc and losers if they were in Zynga Inc and King Digital Entertainment PLC:

A technical chart for Glu Mobile Inc shows volatility above a $3.80 level floor while King Digital Entertainment PLC did have a summer time surge before sinking back into a downtrend:

What Should Be Your Next Move?

As investor and Wall Street patience grows thin, small cap Zynga Inc will need to demonstrate some sort of progress in the coming earnings report. Otherwise, the CEO's head could be the first thing on the chopping block after earnings.

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

I bought pot legally and it was weird

Washington pot shops open for business   Washington pot shops open for business NEW YORK (CNNMoney) I've never felt so anxious doing something legal. In fact, I was so nervous that I ended up spending way too much money and bought a lot more weed than I wanted.

Like most Americans, I've never bought legal marijuana before, so I didn't know what to expect when I tried it a few weeks ago during a visit to Washington state. It wasn't like going to a liquor store, where aisles are stocked with drinks you've seen advertised millions of times. And it was nothing like a bar, despite the guy at the door checking IDs.

It must be how a non-coffee drinker feels walking into a Starbucks (SBUX). Except there wasn't a menu telling customers what's for sale at the shop I visited in Seattle, called Cannabis City. That's one reason why I was so flustered.

A friend and I waited on line outside the store for about 15 minutes before we were told to step inside to the counter on the right. We were slightly confused about what this "counter on the right" was all about. But something about having a bouncer at the entrance who allows only a handful of people in at a time made us think we shouldn't mill about. We made a beeline to the right.

Interactive: Where pot is legal

Inside looked kind of like a jewelry store, with merchandise inside glass cases. There was one salesman standing behind our counter. He appeared to be assigned to us, sort of like a bank teller.

He said hello. Then there was awkward silence. I scanned the case in front of me, there were only a few different types of weed -- without any kind of description. Was this all they had? Were they supposed to give you different kinds of highs? Was I supposed to know? Could I ask?

After what seemed like an eternity, I said I wanted to buy an eighth -- because I heard that's what people usually ask for. The sales associate asked how much I smoke. I said "not a lot," so he suggested the two strains with lower levels of THC: Green Crack and Sage. I said I'd take both.

seattle pot dispensary

He rang me up. This little adventure was going to cost me $88. Already embarrassed about how this whole process had gone down, I laid down my Amex -- forgetting that dispensaries don't accept credit cards. Not a smooth move.

Recreational pot is legal in Washington and Colorado and now, thanks to successful ballot initiatives this week in Washington D.C., Alaska and Orego! n, it will be soon be legal in those states too.

But it remains illegal on the federal level, so credit card companies and banks, which are regulated by the feds, hesitate to work with pot businesses.

At Cannabis City, it's cash only, or you can use the ATM. So the store charged my debit card $90 and gave me the $2 back in cash for the four grams (a little more than an eighth of an ounce) of pot.

But they did give me two free lighters. Score!

Monday, November 3, 2014

Why You Shouldn’t Sell AAPL Just Yet

Well…

What can I say about Apple that hasn't been said?

Everyday there are between 3-5 "new" and lengthy articles of the company. Not to mention all the news articles that flood the internet.

For me, Apple is an investment where I do very little to follow it.

Of all the companies I own, Apple is last on my list of stocks to review.

And when I do, it's mostly just the numbers.

A giant the size of Apple can't change in a quarter or even a year. Although the company is a fast and dynamic, it takes well over a year before a decision made by Tim Cook makes it out to the market.

When I first bought Apple in late 2012, the only thing I was concerned about was valuation.

My initial reasons for investing in Apple were simple and can still be summed up in the same 4 points.

Downside protection: balance sheet protects the business from going bankrupt. If I can find a net net with a dying business with AAPL's balance sheet metrics, I would be all over it. So why wouldn't I buy AAPL? Better than the S&P: A bet that AAPL will perform better than the market over a couple of years. Better than cash: I started the year with about 50% in cash. Cash makes up 1/3 of AAPL's market cap. In other words, if AAPL was a hedge fund, I transferred my US dollars into AAPL dollars for AAPL to manage. With their management, pricing power and business strength, they are able to invest money in ways I cannot dream of. Priced for doom: Current valuations predict AAPL has zero growth remaining. (This has improved today)

For the most part, Apple still fits the same mold. The expectations have increased but continue reading and you'll see that it's still undervalued.

Before the split, I said that it wasn't worth $460 ($65 post split).

And it certainly wasn't worth $530 ($75 post split).

It's taken at least 2 years for the market to get over its pessimism.

The only area that I have an advantage with Apple is knowing when to buy and sell.

i.e. valuation.

So using the Fundamental OSV Analyzer, I'll take you through how I go about determining whether Apple is cheap or not using the various valuation models in the analyzer.

The checks will be done using reverse valuation methods which is one of my favorite ways to gauge the value level of a stock.

Reverse DCF of AAPL

To do a reverse DCF, enter the latest numbers into the equation to figure out the growth rate.

Normally, you do a DCF by entering the growth rate to get the intrinsic value.

But do the opposite by fiddling around with the growth to make the intrinsic value and current price match. That's when you know you've hit the market expected growth rate.

With the current share price at $108, using 9% discount rate and the latest FCF figure of $49.9b, the expected growth rate comes out to 5%.

From the looks of it, the market still hasn't caught on to the value because 5% growth is much to low.

Reverse DCF of AAPL Shows 5% Growth Expectations

Reverse DCF of AAPL Shows 5% Growth Expectations | Enlarge

Reverse EPS Model Using Graham's Formula

Let's take another look from an earnings angle instead of cash flow.

Here's the reverse EPS Ben Graham Model.

AAPL Reverse EPS Model Using Graham's Formula | Enlarge

The beauty with any valuation model is that you can use it for reverse valuations.

It's not just the DCF that has a reverse method.

Any model can be applied in reverse to get the market expectations.

They even do this with accounting, so it's still surprising reverse valuations are not widely used for investing.

A few things to note regarding the numbers in the image above.

I've update the 20 year AA corporate bond rate to 3.91. If you use the OSV analyzer, you should update it occasionally. I'm using the analysts EPS estimate as I'm looking for the market expectations and the analysts are the market consensus.

After fiddling around with the growth rate to get the intrinsic value to match the current price, the growth rate again comes out to 5.5%.

Mighty similar to the 5% from the reverse DCF.

Reverse EBIT Multiple Valuation Check

Now let's move even further up the income statement by inverting the EBIT multiples to see what the market expectations are.

This one is messier so hang in there instead of just glossing it over.

AAPL Reverse EBIT Valuation Model

AAPL Reverse EBIT Valuation Model | Enlarge

To see what multiple the current stock is trading at, enter the latest revenue, cash and equivalents, and off balance sheet numbers.

For Apple, since they have most of their cash listed under other long term assets, you'll need to break open the SEC filing to get the real number. And while you're at it, do a CTRL+F for "off balance sheet" and it will take you to additional debt that is on the books but not on the balance sheet.

Then simply check various multiples to see which one causes the current price and the valuation price to match.

In this case, the conservative multiple of 10x EBIT gives a number very close to the current price.

When I use the current real EBIT multiple of 12 (rounded up from 11.6), the value comes out to be $124.

If you look at the past 5 years at the EBIT multiple Apple has been trading at, it's insanely low when you consider the products and the potential expansion of its ecosystem.

Apple Pay alone could increase the value of Apple by a couple of multiples so it's surprisingly that the current EBIT multiple of 12.5 is the highest its been in 5 years.

AAPL EBIT 5 Year Trend

AAPL EBIT 5 Year Trend | Enlarge

Reverse Absolute PE Model

This model was created by Vitaliy Katsenelson, author of Active Value Investing.

The attractiveness of this model is that it focuses on an absolute method of using multiples.

What I mean by that is that when you use PE multiples, it's used to compare industry competitors. But what if the market is hot and everything is trading at 25x or 30x. Relative comparisons make it seem like it's fairly valued because everything else is trading around the same levels.

But with this method, since you can look at the stock independently, it makes it possible to focus on a single stock for valuation purposes without messing it up with competitors numbers.

Katsenelson Reverse Absolute PE | Enlarge

Katsenelson Reverse Absolute PE | Enlarge

The Katsenelson Absolute PE model shows that the current price is equivalent to a PE of 12 with a 7% expected EPS growth rate.

The current PE is 17 by the way.

So again, this model is also signalling that the current price is still cheap compared to the value.

Reverse Earnings Power Value

The only real improvement seen with any of the models is the earnings power value method.

The main point to note here is that an EPV model ignores all growth.

Nada.

And back in March, the EPS and the current price clearly showed that the market was expecting nothing out of Apple.

This was then.

reverse Earnings Power Value

Reverse Earnings Power Value (March 13, 2014) | Click to Enlarge

This is now.

AAPL Reverse EPV

AAPL Reverse EPV (Nov 3, 2014) | Enlarge

After adjusting for the cash on hand and off balance sheet liabilities, the EPV has finally dropped below the current price.

What does that mean?

The market is expecting growth out of the company.

What the EPV model doesn't do is tell you how much growth. So to keep it simple, use it as an indicator of cheapness.

So What's It All Worth Then?

Even at $108 and hitting all time highs, it's still cheap. My main assumption is that Apple will be able to grow at 10%.

Here's my graphical view of Apple at this point.

AAPL Investment Visualization

AAPL Investment Visualization

The intrinsic value range comes out to be $125 to $150.

I'm ignoring the NCAV, total net reproduction cost and EPV values as the first two are balance sheet related numbers and EPV doesn't factor in any growth.

The average valuation target is then $138, but just round up to $140.

That's still an upside of 30% with very realistic numbers. I'm not projecting to the moon and my numbers are based on low growth numbers to begin with.

Here's a better look at the valuation targets. Click any of the buttons below to view the image. If you don't have any social media accounts, make sure you sign up with your email as the full content is always unlocked via email and you'll also get valuation templates as a bonus.

AAPL Valuation as of Nov 2, 2014

Don't be fooled into thinking that Apple is going to rise 80% like it did during its glory days.

But Apple still offers a great place to park your money with very little risk.

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Further Reading

To know more about each of the models used in this article, check out the post on 8 of the best stock valuation methods to value any stock.

Disclosure

Long AAPL

About the author:Jae JunFounder of Old School Value (http://www.oldschoolvalue.com) dedicated to offering the most complete and detailed stock valuation and analysis spreadsheet. Investing made easy by importing 10 years of financials and 5 quarterly statements directly to excel for your analysis needs. Save time, make smarter decisions and make more money.

Visit Jae Jun's Website

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AAPL STOCK PRICE CHART 109.4 (1y: +45%) $(function(){var seriesOptions=[],yAxisOptions=[],name='AAPL',display='';Highcharts.setOptions({global:{useUTC:true}});var d=new Date();$current_day=d.getDay();if($current_day==5||$current_day==0||$current_day==6){day=4;}else{day=7;} seriesOptions[0]={id:name,animation:false,color:'#4572A7',lineWidth:1,name:name.toUpperCase()+' stock price',threshold:null,data:[[1383544800000,75.25],[1383631200000,75.064],[1383717600000,74.417],[1383804000000,73.213],[1383890400000,74.366],[1384149600000,74.15],[1384236000000,74.287],[1384322400000,74.376],[1384408800000,75.451],[1384495200000,74.999],[1384754400000,74.09],[1384840800000,74.221],[1384927200000,73.571],[1385013600000,74.448],[1385100000000,74.257],[1385359200000,74.82],[1385445600000,76.2],[1385532000000,77.994],[1385704800000,79.439],[1385964000000,78.747],[1386050400000,80.903],[1386136800000,80.

Saturday, November 1, 2014

Video Glenview's Larry Robbins Talks to Bloomberg at the Ira Sohn Conference

Robbins thinks that 2014 is going to be tougher sledding in the equity markets.

That means that investors can't rely on a rising tide to lift all ships.

Robbins discusses his favorite areas which he discussed at the Ira Sohn conference:

Also check out: Larry Robbins Undervalued Stocks Larry Robbins Top Growth Companies Larry Robbins High Yield stocks, and Stocks that Larry Robbins keeps buyingAbout the author:Canadian Valuehttp://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/
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