Thursday, October 31, 2013

Obamacare: The Exchanges, The Coverage, The Premiums, And The Legal Challenge That Could Shut It Down

Obamacare, if it survives, will represent the most comprehensive overhaul of the American healthcare system since the creation of Medicare in the mid 1960′s. I say, "if it survives" only because, if the system cannot properly facilitate enrollment, if the government cannot enforce its rules, and if the frustration level of the voting public reaches a certain point, Congress may decide to defund it. Additionally, new legal challenges have surfaced which appear credible enough to proceed.

In this article, we'll take a look at the health insurance exchanges, the levels of coverage, some premium examples, and what could happen if any of the new lawsuits succeed.

The Exchanges

Despite numerous differences between supporters and opponents, Obamacare does contain some common ground. The establishment of health insurance exchanges are one example. The exchanges will allow a comparison of premiums on plans with very similar coverage on one website. This should enhance transparency and increase competition which, absent other factors, would have a suppressing effect on premiums. However, many of these "other factors" are significant. Therefore, unless you qualify for a subsidy, it's unlikely your premiums will decrease.

All states were required to establish a healthcare exchange or opt out, in which case its citizens would be compelled to use the federal exchange. According to one source, 17 states have created their own exchange (includes the District of Columbia), 7 will use a "partnership marketplace," and 27 will use the federal exchange. This conflicts with a recent LA Times article which reported, "36 states have decided against opening exchanges for now." Whatever the exact number actually is, before a health insurance plan can be listed on an exchange, it must meet minimum federal requirements for qualified health plans.

States who have created an exchange will retain some discretion over minimum coverage requirements (MCR) and premiums. These states can also decide which policies are allowed on its exchange and which will be excluded. In addition, states with their own exchanges will be able to set higher MCRs and negotiate premium limits with insurers. In short, these states will have some control over their health insurance marketplace.

The Cost of Healthcare.gov: Was It a Good Investment?

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

GM Third-Quarter Earnings Beat Wall Street Forecasts

Renaissance Center Light Bands (The General Motors logo and a blue light band are displayed atop the Renaissance Center in DetroCarlos Osorio/AP DETROIT -- General Motors' third-quarter net income fell 53 percent compared with a year ago, as one-time expenses masked a strong performance in North America and a narrowed loss in Europe. The company earned $698 million in the quarter, or 45 cents a share. That compares with $1.48 billion, or 89 cents a share, a year ago. But without $900 million in one-time items, GM earned $1.7 billion, or 96 cents a share. That beat Wall Street expectations. Analysts polled by FactSet expected 94 cents a share. Revenue rose 4 percent to $39 billion, just short of Wall Street's estimate of $39.2 billion. Investors viewed the results favorably. GM (GM) shares rose 87 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $36.93 in morning trading. GM's performance in North America was especially strong, with pretax earnings up 28 percent to $2.2 billion on solid pickup truck sales and better pricing. GM rolled out updated versions of its Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups in the spring. The company's profit margin in North America -- the percentage of revenue it gets to keep after expenses -- was the highest in two years at 9.3 percent. GM has a goal of 10 percent pretax margins in the region. "The new trucks are doing great in the marketplace," Chief Financial Officer Dan Ammann said. "We're commanding good pricing. We're controlling costs." GM's average sales price rose 1 percent in the U.S. during the quarter to $34,566, according to Kelley Blue Book. Sales of the Silverado, its top-selling vehicle, were up 14 percent over last year's third quarter. Prices for the pickup rose by 2 percent to an average of $36,487. In Europe, GM cut its loss by more than half to $214 million. Revenue there rose year-over-year for the first time in two years. Ammann said the company cut $400 million in costs during the quarter, and updated versions of its Opel Mokka small crossover SUV, Adam subcompact and Insignia midsize car sold well. GM's International Operations, including Asia, saw pretax earnings fall 61 percent to $299 million due to struggles in India and other areas outside of China. South American profit rose 79 percent to $159 million. The company's financial unit saw a 20 percent rise in pretax earnings to $239 million. "We continue to have challenges in some markets," Ammann said. Some are due to industrywide issues such as competitors lowering prices, but some are execution problems on GM's part, he said. South American profit rose 79 percent to $284 million. The company's financial unit saw a 20 percent rise in pretax earnings to $239 million. One-time items included $800 million to buy preferred stock from a health care trust for union retirees and a $48 million impairment charge in South Korea. Several major U.S. corporations dodge domestic taxes by moving profits internationally to tax havens. For example, a company can utilize the "double Irish" formula to minimize their U.S. taxes. If the profits from the sale of a good stayed in the U.S., they would be taxed at the federal 35 percent rate. However, some companies sell the intellectual property rights to an Irish subsidiary to minimize tax obligations. The profits from that U.S. sale are paid overseas to the Irish subsidiary. As long as the Irish subsidiary is controlled by managers elsewhere - for instance, a Caribbean tax haven - the profits can move around the world without a dime of taxation. At this point, the profits are moved to a nation with no tax, skirting around the U.S. 35 percent rate.  

By Business Insider

Corporations can avoid paying taxes on US profits with the "Double Irish" arrangement. This is the "Double" part of the Double Irish, and also entails a trip through the Netherlands. When the same company's product is sold overseasthat profit is routed to a second Irish subsidiary, Since Ireland has treaties with the Netherlands to make inter-European transfers tax free, the profits are then routed through the Netherlands, and then back to the first Irish subsidiary, and then to the no-tax Caribbean Island. As a result, the U.S. company never has to repatriate the money and they never has to pay taxes on the products.

Where Will Facebook Stock Go Now?

With shares of Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) trading around $34, is FB an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Facebook is engaged in building social products in order to create utility for users, developers, and advertisers. People use Facebook to stay connected with their friends and family, to discover what is going on in the world around them, and to share and express what matters to them to the people they care about. Developers can use the Facebook platform to build applications and websites that integrate with Facebook to reach its global network of users, and to build personalized and social products. Advertisers can engage with more than 900 million monthly active users on Facebook, or subsets of its users, based on information they have chosen to share.

Social networking has been a powerful movement and tool in recent years, and has had a major influence in the way many companies and consumers operate daily. The company's mobile app has reached 100 million users, and the simple app is most heavily used in emerging markets, where data speeds are usually slower. Facebook reported earnings on Wednesday afternoon that proved analysts wrong, with strong profits from mobile ads. Facebook's ad revenue from mobile was close to nothing a year ago, but in the second quarter, mobile ads made up 41 percent of the site's total ad revenue of $1.6 billion. Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg predicted, "Soon we'll have more revenue on mobile than desktop."

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Facebook stock has struggled to find a consensus valuation over the last several years. The stock broke out in a big way today, and is now trading at highs for the year. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages.

What are the key moving averages? They are the 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Facebook is trading well above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

FB

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Facebook options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Facebook Options

33.76%

3%

0%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very minimal amount of call and put options contracts, compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

August Options

Flat

Average

September Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers, and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very minimal amount of call and put option contracts, and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates, and what that means for Facebook’s stock.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. The last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions can also help gauge investor sentiment on Facebook’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Facebook look like, and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

58.33%

0.00%

-89.46%

-120.00%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

53.13%

37.81%

40.14%

32.29%

Earnings Reaction

28.74%*

5.61%

-0.83%

19.12%

Facebook has seen improving earnings and rising revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been excited about Facebook’s recent earnings announcements.

* As of this writing

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Facebook stock done relative to its peers, Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), LinkedIn (NASDAQ:LNKD), and the overall sector?

Facebook

Google

Microsoft

LinkedIn

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

26.52%

26.10%

17.56%

77.77%

20.31%

Facebook has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Facebook is a leader in the social networking arena, and strives to provide an unforgettable experience for its users, developers, and advertisers. A recent positive earnings has investors euphoric, and the stock is now trading at highs for the year. Over the last four quarters, investors in the company have been excited, as earnings have been improving and revenue figures have been rising. Relative to its peers and sector, Facebook has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Facebook to OUTPERFORM.

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Does EA Have Any Game Left?

Electronic Arts

Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA) stock is up more than 100 percent in the past year. The share price has surged during a period in which CEO John Ricciteilo resigned after a disastrous release of a new SimCity game and the company was voted the worst company in America for the second time in a row. So what's actually behind the rise of the stock, and can it continue to climb higher? Let's use our CHEAT SHEET investing framework to decide whether EA is an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY.

C = Catalysts for the Stock's Movement

After the resignation of its CEO and “winning” the title of worst company in America earlier this year, EA managed to give investors good news via its first-quarter earnings results (from an accounting perspective, these results were actually EA's fourth-quarter 2013 results). EA's first-quarter revenue was up 6 percent from the year before and its gross margin increased by 10 basis points due to increased sales in higher margin mobile gaming and increased cost-cutting initiatives.

EA's new strategy focuses on growing its social and mobile game offerings. The company has performed well so far: Mobile game revenues increased 21 percent from the previous year. EA is also enjoying success in generating incremental sales and stronger user engagement from bringing its most popular console games to mobile and social platforms. Look for EA's mobile game revenues to continue to grow, as the company has 15 new mobile titles slated for release this year.

EA has been in the business of creating and maintaining relationships this year. Recently, the company inked contracts with Disney (NYSE:DIS), in which the company will produce a line of Star Wars games, and Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS), in which EA is planning on releasing adaptations of popular board games on mobile platforms such as Monopoly. EA seems poised for success on new generation console releases later this year by Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Sony (NYSE:SNE). The company recently renewed its contracts with major sports organizations and is set to release new sports titles along with the release of next-generation consoles.

E = Excellent Relative Performance to Peers?

While EA looks poised for profitability this year, how does it stack up against its chief competitor, Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI)? Activision has a much more attractive operating margin, due mainly to more in-house content production. Additionally, Activision is relatively less expensive than EA with a forward P/E ratio, and it pays a healthy dividend yielding 1.3 percent. Its growth prospects are more stifled than EA's because of declining popularity in its World of Warcraft game series and increased competition facing its celebrated Call of Duty game. EA's growth rate is projected to be higher as margins continue to grow and the company pushes into the mobile and social gaming sectors.

EA ATVI
Forward P/E 16.79 14.80
PEG Ratio 1.31 2.29
Operating Margin 3.24% 30.93%
Growth Est. (Next 5 yrs.) 15.18% 7.65%

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Electronic Arts is currently trading at around $23.75, well above both its 200-day moving average of $18.66 and its 50-day moving average of $22.75. The stock has been experiencing a strong uptrend over the past year and is up more than 100 percent over the last 12 months. The stock hit a fresh 52-week high of $23.99 on Monday.

Conclusion

With a new CEO in place and a clear focus on expansion into the growing mobile and social gaming spheres, EA should experience stable profitability in the medium term. However, the company is expensive right now compared to its historical price-to-earnings ratio. EA seems to have put its PR problems and release glitches in the past and has an impressive lineup of games in the pipeline. In-house content creation is an area EA must expand on to maintain success in the marketplace. Still, EA doesn't appear to have ample growth prospects to justify its relatively high price. Investors should WAIT AND SEE if they can acquire shares of EA at a lower price in the future.

Monday, October 28, 2013

The Long-Term, Strong ARM

Recently, this company experienced a major sell off as a result of their disappointing third quarter earnings. However, MoneyShow's Jim Jubak, also of Jubak's Picks urges you to consider the long-term opportunity that now awaits.

I'm going to use the sell off in ARM Holdings ((ARMH) in New York and (ARM) in London) on disappointing third quarter earnings, to add this technology, intellectual property stock to my Jubak's Picks portfolio. The New York traded ADRs fell 10.3% from October 21 to October 23. Even after Friday's move up to $47.82 as of noon New York time Friday, October 25, the ADRs are off 7.6% since October 21.

ARM Holdings is a classic, great, long-term story stock that has been sold-off on a timing issue that resulted in disappointing quarterly results. My advice: Look past the short-term story and pick up the long-term story at a temporary bargain.

Here's what happened to lead to the disappointment. The quarter ARM reported that sales had climbed 8% from the second quarter, and 26% from the third quarter of 2012. At $287 million for the quarter, sales were comfortably above the Wall Street consensus of $270 million. Earnings at 511 pence (ARM is an English company) beat the consensus of 510 pence.

No disappointment so far, right?

The problem came in the breakdown of sales. ARM Holdings makes its money by licensing its technology to other technology companies and from the royalties it garners on each unit sold by its licensing partners.

Licensing revenue was fine for the quarter—in fact, it was great. The company signed 48 licenses in the quarter at 24 different companies, including 11 companies that were licensing ARM Holdings' technology for the first time.

However, royalty revenue came in at $122 million, $7 million lower than Wall Street expected for the quarter.

It looks to me like the miss on royalty revenue is totally explicable. Apple (AAPL) is a major ARM Holdings licensee, and unit volumes of iPhones and iPads sold by Apple in the calendar second quarter lagged, as consumers waited to buy until after the widely anticipated new product announcements in September and October.

The irony in the miss and the sell off is that Apple announced huge new commitments to ARM Holdings' licenses in the new iPhone and iPad.

First, the company won a key slot in the new iPhone 5s for a 64-bit processor based on its design. Apple's use of ARM's technology in the A7 will result in a 20% hike to 60 cents from 50 cents in the royalties that ARM Holdings earns from every iPhone sale.

Second, Apple also announced that the new iPad, introduced just two weeks ago, will also use the company's technology in the A7 processor.

Think ARM Holdings might pick up all the unit volume and royalty revenue—and more—next quarter, that it missed this quarter?

But the importance of Apple's move to ARM's 64-bit technology extends far beyond the increase in revenue that the company will get from Apple.

Apple's move has raised the bar for all of its competitors, and I think we're already seeing a race to get 64-bit technology in cell phones and tablets across those markets.

For example, in the second quarter, MediaTek ((TT:2454) in Taiwan), which has the biggest share of the chip market in China for smartphones, licensed the same 64-bit architecture from ARM Holdings that Apple has. MediaTek is the first designer of inexpensive systems on a chip for smart phones to license ARM Holdings' 64-bit technology. Considering that MediaTek is expected to record 48% of the Chinese market in 2013, and over 50% in 2014, ARM Holdings is looking at another big royalty boost as MediaTek builds that new technology into a new generation of chips.

And I don't think that this is the end of this string of good news (and higher royalties) for ARM Holdings. Apple's move to 64-bit technology (and the move of China's handset makers to that technology), will push Android phone makers outside of China, such as global market share leader Samsung, to move to the new generation of 64-bit processors.

In the short-term, say the next quarter of two, as volumes move up on Apple's sales of the new iPhones and iPads, I'm looking to see the ARM Holdings' ADRs move up 15% or so, to $56. From there the price will continue to trend upward, but the pace will depend on how quickly other 64-bit products hit the market.

Full disclosure: I don't own shares of any of the companies mentioned in this post in my personal portfolio. When in 2010 I started the mutual fund I manage, Jubak Global Equity Fund, I liquidated all my individual stock holdings and put the money into the fund. The fund may or may not now own positions in any stock mentioned in this post. The fund did own shares of Apple as of the end of June. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of June see the fund's portfolio here.

Is IBM a Buy Near All-Time Highs?

With shares of International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) trading around $206, is IBM an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

IBM is an information technology company. The company operates in five segments: Global Technology Services, Global Business Services, Software, Systems and Technology, and Global Financing. Technology products and services are in high demand worldwide as consumers want to be up-to-speed, and companies always need the latest and greatest to stay ahead of the competition. Cloud computing has been hot in recent times, which has not been too good for IBM. Should the company want to hold on to its market share, it needs to make moves quickly, and provide the technology products and services that worldwide consumers and companies demand.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

IBM stock has been on a monster surge higher over the last few years. The stock has been in a consolidation for about a year now and may be setting up to move higher. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, IBM is trading slightly above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

NEW! Discover a new stock idea each week for less than the cost of 1 trade. CLICK HERE for your Weekly Stock Cheat Sheets NOW!

IBM

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of IBM options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

IBM Options

20.77%

93%

90%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

July Options

Steep

Average

August Options

Steep

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on IBM’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for IBM look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

3.45%

11.15%

4.39%

11.33%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

-5.11%

-0.64%

-5.39%

-3.34%

Earnings Reaction

-8.27%

4.4%

-4.91%

3.76%

IBM has seen increasing earnings and and decreasing revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these figures, the markets have been mixed about IBM’s recent earnings announcements.

NEW! Discover a new stock idea each week for less than the cost of 1 trade. CLICK HERE for your Weekly Stock Cheat Sheets NOW!

P = Poor Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has IBM stock done relative to its peers, Accenture (NYSE:ACN), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and sector?

IBM

Accenture

Hewlett-Packard

Microsoft

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

7.54%

21.97%

72.70%

30.93%

22.89%

IBM has been a relative poor performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

IBM is a technology company that provides valuable and essential products and services to consumers and companies around the world. The stock has been on a strong run extending back several years but has been in consolidation as of late. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been increasing while revenue figures have been decreasing, overall producing mixed feelings among investors. Relative to its peers and sector, IBM has been a poor year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what IBM does in coming quarters.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Best And Worst ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings: All Cap Blend Style

The All Cap Blend style ranks third out of the twelve fund styles as detailed in my Style Rankings for ETFs and Mutual Funds report. It gets my Neutral rating, which is based on aggregation of ratings of 36 ETFs and 704 mutual funds in the All Cap Blend style as of July 12, 2013. Prior reports on the best & worst ETFs and mutual funds in every sector and style are here.

Figures 1 and 2 show the five best and worst-rated ETFs and mutual funds in the style. Not all All Cap Blend style ETFs and mutual funds are created equal. The number of holdings varies widely (from 20 to 291), which creates drastically different investment implications and ratings. The best ETFs and mutual funds allocate more value to Attractive-or-better-rated stocks than the worst, which allocate too much value to Neutral-or-worse-rated stocks.

To identify the best and avoid the worst ETFs and mutual funds within the All Cap Blend style, investors need a predictive rating based on (1) stocks ratings of the holdings and (2) the all-in expenses of each ETF and mutual fund. Investors need not rely on backward-looking ratings. My fund rating methodology is detailed here.

Investors seeking exposure to the All Cap Blend style should buy one of the Attractive-or-better rated ETFs or mutual funds from Figures 1 and 2.

Get my ratings on all ETFs and mutual funds by searching for All Cap Blend funds on my free mutual fund and ETF screener.

Figure 1: ETFs with the Best & Worst Ratings - Top 5

allcapblend1

* Best ETFs exclude ETFs with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity.

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings

FlexShares Northern Trust Quality Dividend Defensive Index (QDEF) is excluded from Figure 1 because its total net assets (TNA) are below $100 million and do not meet our liquidity standards.

Figure 2: Mutual Funds with the Best & Worst Ratings -! Top 5

allcapblend2

* Best mutual funds exclude funds with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity.

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings

Twelve funds are excluded from Figure 2 because their total net assets are below $100 million and do not meet our liquidity standards.

Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) is my top-rated All Cap Blend ETF and FundVantage Trust Formula Investing U.S. Value Select Fund (FNSIX) is my top-rated All Cap Blend mutual fund. Both earn my Attractive rating.

First Trust Value Line 100 ETF (FVL) is my worst-rated All Cap Blend ETF and Clarity Fund (CLRTX) is my worst-rated All Cap Blend mutual fund. FVL earns my Dangerous rating, while CLRTX gets my Very Dangerous rating.

Figure 3 shows that 390 out of the 2725 stocks (over 34% of the market value) in All Cap Blend ETFs and mutual funds get an Attractive-or-better rating. However, only 3 out of 36 All Cap Blend ETFs (less than 3% of total net assets) and 15 out of 704 All Cap Blend mutual funds (less than 1% of total net assets) get an Attractive-or-better rating.

The takeaways are: mutual fund managers allocate too much capital to low-quality stocks and All Cap Blend ETFs hold poor quality stocks.

Figure 3: All Cap Blend Style Landscape For ETFs, Mutual Funds & Stocks

allcapblend3

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings

As detailed in "Low-Cost Funds Dupe Investors", the fund industry offers many cheap funds but very few funds with high-quality stocks, or with what I call good portfolio management.

Investors need to tread carefully when considering All Cap Blend ETFs and mutual funds, as very few out of the vast number of funds earn an Attractive rating. Only 3 ETFs and 15 mutual funds in the All Cap Blend style allocat! e enough ! value to Attractive-or-better-rated stocks to earn an Attractive rating.

Kroger (KR) is one of my favorite stocks held by All Cap Blend ETFs and mutual funds and earns my Attractive rating. Kroger has grown profits (NOPAT) consistently since 1998 with a compounded annual growth rate of 8%. While Kroger's return on invested capital (ROIC) of 7% may not be top of the heap, its cost of capital (WACC) is less than 5%, allowing it to achieve positive economic earnings that have grown at a rate of 45% compounded annually since the financial crisis in 2008. Despite KR's excellent past few years, the stock is still trading at ~$37.63/share, giving KR a price to economic book value ratio of 0.7, implying that the market expects KR's profits to permanently decline by 30%. Judging by KR's past few years and its recent acquisition of expanding rival Harris Teeter (HTSI), this looks extremely unlikely, and investors should jump on while the stock still trades at a discount.

Jones Apparel Group (JNY) is one of my least favorite stocks held by All Cap Blend ETFs and mutual funds and earns my Dangerous rating. JNY has not grown profits (NOPAT) since 1998 when my model begins. Its 2012 profit of $153 million is actually less than the $154 million it earned in 1998. The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) is just 4%, down from 15% in 1998 and currently in the bottom quintile of all the companies I cover. JNY has also earned negative economic earnings for every year since 2001, which is an indicator that JNY has been unable to compete against stronger women's clothing retailers. Despite this underperformance, JNY still trades at ~$16/share, which implies the market believes the company will grow NOPAT by 6% compounded annually for the next 11 years. Those expectations are awfully high for a company that has not grown since 1998. Investors should avoid put their money in more attractive stocks.

Figures 4 and 5 show the rating landscape of all All Cap Blend ETFs and mutual funds.

My Style Ran! kings for! ETFs and Mutual Funds report ranks all styles and highlights those that offer the best investments.

Figure 4: Separating the Best ETFs From the Worst Funds

allcapblend4

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings

Figure 5: Separating the Best Mutual Funds From the Worst Funds

allcapblend5

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings

Review my full list of ratings and rankings along with reports on all 36 ETFs and 704 mutual funds in the All Cap Blend style.

André Rouillard and Sam McBride contributed to this report.

Disclosure: David Trainer, André Rouillard and Sam McBride receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style or theme.

Source: Best And Worst ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings: All Cap Blend Style

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)

3 Shipping Stocks Set to Sail in the Right Direction

The global economy becomes more closely knit each year. The economic expansion of quickly developing countries requires resources to fuel the fire, and lots of them. The most efficient way to transport mass quantities of raw materials is through dry bulk shipping using large vessels. Assuming that teleportation devices won't be introduced anytime soon, the bulk shipping industry is here for the long haul.

Shipping services are all fairly standard: The materials are loaded, shipped, and unloaded. Therefore it is difficult for a company to differentiate itself based on quality of service, so other avenues such as rate competitiveness and cost efficiency become big factors in a company's success. A great example of a company doing just this is DryShips (NASDAQ: DRYS  ) .

The good
Through what has been a difficult period for shipping stocks, DryShips has done a great job growing revenues. Over the past two years, revenues have been growing year over year at relatively high rates and have hit $319.7 million, a 29% increase over the same quarter last year. The fact that DryShips can maintain revenues during an imbalanced period of supply and demand gives the company a promising outlook.

DRYS Revenue Annual YoY Growth Chart

DRYS Revenue Annual YoY Growth data by YCharts

Furthermore, the shipping industry is cyclical, with the fall and winter seasons typically being busier. DryShips has seen steadily increasing days in deferred revenues, indicating that it has plenty of business coming in even during the spring and summer seasons. This is a very healthy sign since many other shipping companies are struggling or shutting down entirely during off-peak seasons.

A smooth operator
Just as DryShips is able to generate revenues during off-peak seasons, it is important for a company to be able to maintain healthy operating margins throughout the year. Another shipping company doing a good keeping these margins open despite lower revenues is Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX  ) . As seen in the chart above, revenues have been dwindling, but that does not mean management is not doing its part.

Although there is a steady downward trend, Diana Shipping is doing all that it can in the saturated market to keep operating margins positive while weathering the storm. The diminishing revenues are being combated with lower operating expenses as well, particularly during the off-peak seasons. The strategy now is to operate almost exclusively during peak seasons, which is different from the past where vessels were in constant operation to answer the high shipping demand.

DSX Operating Margin TTM Chart

DSX Operating Margin TTM data by YCharts

The current demand for shipping is being hurt by the slowing economies of China and India. With that in mind, Diana Shipping is focused on keeping costs low and exploring low-cost investments, such as acquiring new vessels. By adding to its fleet during an inexpensive time, Diana hopes to reward investors with extremely lucrative cash flows once the shipping business picks back up.

Shape up or ship out
The two companies above have done a relatively great job at staying proactive during a troubled time, and Eagle Bulk Shipping (NASDAQ: EGLE  ) is doing its best to follow suit. After putting up very strong earnings last quarter, reporting $72.2 million net revenue, compared with $52.6 million for the same quarter last year, Eagle looks to be on the right track.

Investors should also be aware of a drastic drop in Eagle's deferred revenues, which accompanied the increase in revenues last quarter as well. Deferred revenue is an indicator of how much work a company has to fulfill, and increasing numbers are usually healthy. The large drop in deferred revenue could indicate possible changes to revenue recognition and is a warning sign to keep an eye on.

Going up?
All of these stocks are at very low prices despite the fact that the market is at an all-time high. This is because the bulk shipping industry is seeing supply and demand factors that are severely out of order, which the industry is looking to correct in the near future. The Baltic Dry Index, a major indicator of the shipping industry, is currently just under 1,100, down from a high of 11,800 in May 2008. If demand follows current trends and picks up, these stocks could have a lot of room to run.

If you're afraid shipping stocks could sink further, then check out the company that The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected as his No. 1 stock for this year. Find out which stock it is in the special free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

OfficeMax Keeps Dividend Steady

Office supplies retailer OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX  ) announced yesterday its third-quarter dividend of $0.02 per share, the same rate it's paid for the past four quarters after slashing the payout 87% from $0.15 per share.

The board of directors said the quarterly dividend is payable on Aug. 30 to the holders of record at the close of business on Aug. 15. The office supplies retailer paid a special dividend of $1.50 per share last month. It is in the midst of being acquired by Office Depot for $1.2 billion.

The regular dividend payment equates to an $0.08-per-share annual dividend, yielding 0.7% based on the closing price of OfficeMax's stock on July 25.

OMX Dividend Chart

OMX Dividend data by YCharts. Chart reflects special dividend of $1.50 that was paid in June 2013 and does not include the just-announced payment.

link

Saturday, October 26, 2013

ExxonMobil May Continue to Underperform

Lately, the market hasn't been treating ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM  )  with a lot of respect. The oil and gas supermajor has noticeably underperformed the broader equity markets in the last 24 months. To give investors a perspective, this is how Exxon's stock performed since July 2011:

XOM Chart

XOM data by YCharts.

Compare this with the stock's performance for the previous eight years -- from July 2003 till July 2011 -- and it looks like this:

XOM Chart

XOM data by YCharts.

To summarize, Exxon underperformed the broader markets dramatically in the last two years.

I also calculated the stock's effective annual yield over the various holding periods, along with a comparison to S&P 500. There are two sets of data: The price return is the effective annual yield calculated using the stock price appreciation only, while the total return is the corresponding effective annual yield with reinvested dividends. Here's how the figures compare:

   

July 2011-July 2013

(2 years)

July 2003-July 2011

(8 years)

July 2003-July 2013

(10 years)

ExxonMobil

Price Return

5.7%

11.5%

10.2%

Total Return

8.3%

14%

12.7%

S&P 500

Price Return

12.2%

3.9%

5.6%

Total Return

14.7%

6%

7.8%

Source: Morningstar; author's calculations.

What's the big reason behind these diminished returns? And more importantly, will this stock continue to underperform in the foreseeable future? With fewer than 10 days before Exxon reports its second-quarter results, Foolish investors should be concerned whether this stock is worth a place in their portfolios.

The crux of the problem
For a company whose market capitalization is north of $400 billion, the answer isn't so straightforward. However, the unmistakable signs of declining profitability are hard to ignore. A cursory look at the company's profit margins for the last five years does not reveal much. However, upon delving deeper, the cash flow statements reveal a trend that long-term investors need to be wary of: Over the last five years, net cash used for investing activities has doubled from about $15 billion a year to more than $30 billion a year.

Many might argue, especially those in management, that this isn't necessarily a bad thing. Larger investments should translate into higher production volumes in an era of increasing global demand as well as competition. Additionally, investment horizons in the oil and gas industry are pretty long -- in fact, a matter of decades.

While these arguments are fair, profitability ultimately boils down to margins per barrel of oil extracted and sold. And that's where it seems like a problem. The following chart depicts Exxon's 10-year growth in revenue and capital expenditure over the last 10 years.

XOM Revenue 10 Year Growth Chart

XOM Revenue 10 Year Growth data by YCharts.

The era of cheap oil is over
While ExxonMobil operates as an integrated oil and gas company, the upstream segment accounts for about 74% of earnings after tax. The company's profitability is, therefore, largely tied up with its exploration and production activities.

Crude oil and natural gas liquids production fell 3.5% in the first quarter year over year. On an annual basis, total liquids production fell 11% to 1.99 million barrels a day in 2012 from 2.2 million bpd in 2010. More importantly, production costs have soared. Average cost of producing crude oil and NGLs stood at $100.7 per barrel in 2012, a whopping 36% jump from 2010 cost levels.

Clearly, Exxon's legacy assets aren't able to keep up production levels. These gigantic assets bases need more coaxing in order to keep production volumes stable, resulting in higher expenditures. Moreover, with unconventional resources proving to be much more costly, producing crude oil cheaply is soon becoming a part of history.

While major investments are under way, margins should likely remain suppressed unless crude oil prices shoots through the ceiling. The latter isn't an impossibility with crude prices currently nearing $110 per barrel.

Also, a company like ExxonMobil cannot be written off in a hurry. Exxon's strength lies in its efficiency, deep cash reserves, and shrewd management. Many of its current projects are ambitious. The company is also betting big on natural gas. Exporting LNG to Asia could be a profitable move, at least for the next five years.  

Of course, rising crude oil prices continue to be Exxon's biggest driver to improve margins. But whether this stock is capable of outperforming the broader markets still remains a $400 billion question. Long-term investors should carefully watch this stock.

If you are looking to profit from high crude oil prices, there are some intriguing energy companies that you should check out. The Motley Fool has identified "3 Stocks for $100 Oil." Read about these stocks for free by clicking here.

Yahoo! Mail Users Get Second Chance at No. 1 Email Address

Believe it or not, Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO  ) did more than just report earnings this week. It also gave investors -- and Yahoo! mail users -- a glimpse at a bit of the synergies it's been promising for years.

On Tuesday, Yahoo! announced on Tumblr (which it bought earlier this year for $1.1 billion) that at some point in the near future, Yahoo! mail users may get a shot at winning the email address of their dreams.

Ever since the dawn of the Internet, early adopters have rushed in to grab primo email addresses for themselves when a new service opened, leaving later adopters to pick through the trash of unwanted email monikers such as "albert93099."

Source: yahoo.tumblr.com.

Of course, not all these adopters actually used the email addresses acquired in their land-grabs. They just wanted to keep them "handy" in case the urge to use them should arise. Yahoo!'s now trying to fix that.

Marissa Mayer: Miss Fix-it
On Tumblr, Yahoo! announced the opening of a new Web page where Yahoo! mail users can post wishlists of their top five most-desired email addresses. Users may already have a Yahoo! mail address, of course. It's just not the one they want. So to better match customer-wants with corporate-need (for more traffic on its website), Yahoo! intends to comb through its records over the next few weeks, figure out which popular email addresses have become orphaned by their owners, and reclaim them for redistribution to more worthy parents.

After matching up wishlists with available names, Yahoo! will email users who've submitted their wishlists, informing them of which email addresses have become available -- and giving everyone a second bite at the apple, to win the email address of their dreams.

Risk and opportunity
Like any exerciser of eminent domain (get it? "domain" names?), Yahoo! risks alienating the early adopters of the email addresses it is redistributing. The hope, though, is that these folks probably weren't very active Yahoo! mail users in the first place (otherwise their addresses wouldn't have become orphaned). The hope also is that the new owners will appreciate Yahoo!'s move more than the old users hate it.

More importantly, Yahoo! has taken a big step here toward regaining the innovation initiative from more successful Internet rivals such as Facebook, Microsoft, and in particular Google. Lately, Facebook has been the new kid on the block, offering up all sorts of new e-widgets to its users such as the now-open-for-business Graph Search. Microsoft actually restarted the email address wars with its launch of Outlook.com earlier this year, putting a new batch of primo email addresses up for grabs. Google has had widely publicized problems with digital dopplegangers getting each others' mail addressed to too-similar email addresses -- and now Yahoo!'s CEO is sticking a finger in the eye of her old employer, with a move designed to give users a reason to switch back from Gmail to Yahoo! mail.

Source: yahoo.tumblr.com.

What next?
Yahoo! says it will begin notifying Yahoo! mail users of addresses that have become re-available sometime mid-August -- so keep your eyes peeled. Recipients will be given 48 hours to claim their most-desired Yahoo! mail address, assuming it's become available. Wait too long, however, and you'll miss your chance at the email address of your dreams... again.

Dated Data? Zillow Responds

The Fool is exploring Seattle. Today, CEO Spencer Rascoff introduces us to Zillow (NASDAQ: Z  ) , telling us how the online home and real estate marketplace works, what he considers its greatest strengths, and what investors should know about it.

Spencer is unconcerned by a rival's report criticizing the quality of Zillow's listings. He points out a series of strengths that the report doesn't take into account, as well as the company's database of 110 million homes.

The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for this year. Find out which stock it is in the special free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

Austin Smith: There was a recent Redfin report that came out, I believe, that targeted you and Trulia for somewhat dated data. It's been a knock against the Zillow part for a while. I'm wondering if you have a reaction to that.

Spencer Rascoff: The way I look at it is, when you talk about listings accuracy or listings information, you have to see the whole picture.

Three percent of all the homes in the U.S. are for sale by agent in the MLS at any point in time. Those are commoditized listings. They're readily available on Zillow and pretty much every other major real estate website.

We put a lot of importance on making sure that those listings are accurate and timely and fresh, and we've improved quite a bit over the last year or so. But those are commoditized listings. At Zillow we also have over a million other listings, which are not going to be on any other sites, like the ones that you mention; foreclosure listings, Make Me Move listings, new construction listings, rental listings, and for sale by owner listings.

Those typically aren't available on sites other than Zillow, and then of course Zillow has information on every home in the country, 110 million homes, with seven years of user-generated content around a third of all those homes that have been edited or improved upon by their owners.

When you look at listings quality, I think sometimes competitors focus much more narrowly on listings information than Zillow's perspective, which is to look at the entire housing stock rather than a small portion of the housing stock.

Austin: Based on your answer then I'm sure I can guess your reaction to this question. Would it, at some point, make sense for you guys to get a brokerage license, if nothing else, to get that MLS-direct plugin?

Spencer: We are not a brokerage. We sell ads, not houses. We don't intend to compete with brokerages. Brokerages do a great job, doing a completely different thing than what we do.

We've always said to agents, brokers, and MLSs, "If you want your listings on Zillow, fantastic, but we're not going to use the rules that you set up to our advantage by being a paper brokerage, being a fake brokerage, and getting listings that way." That seems very competitive to the broker business model to me, and that's not a path that we've pursued.

Friday, October 25, 2013

Oracle defends CEO’s pay amid shareholder unrest

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Oracle is facing a potential shareholder revolt against a compensation formula that has consistently made its billionaire co-founder, Larry Ellison, one of the best-paid CEOs in the world.

The business software maker staunchly defended Ellison's pay in a letter sent to shareholder activist firm CtW Investment Group in an effort to rally support for its board of directors before the 11 members stand for re-election at Oracle's annual meeting on Oct. 31.

First Take: Larry Ellison, the world's wealthiest underdog

The letter released in a Wednesday regulatory filing came in response to a scathing attack that CtW launched last week against the compensation that Ellison has been receiving from the Redwood Shores, Calif., company for years.

CtW doesn't own any Oracle shares directly, but the Washington D.C., group is paid to fight for shareholder causes. It is vowing to organize the pension funds of labor groups that are stockholders unless the company changes its ways. Oracle's letter gave no indication that the company is going to relent, setting the stage for an attempt to oust at least three of Oracle's directors at the annual meeting.

"It seems pretty clear that they aren't willing to listen to the concerns of shareholders," said Rich Clayton, a research director at CtW. A truce could still be reached during a meeting with an Oracle representative that Clayton said is scheduled for Thursday morning in Washington.

Shareholders expressed their displeasure with Oracle's compensation practices at the company's annual meeting last year. About 59% of the shareholders voted against a "say-on-pay" proposal seeking an endorsement of the board's compensation policies. That vote was non-binding, and Oracle's compensation committee decided that no significant changes to its practices were needed, according to the company's proxy statement for the upcoming annual meeting.

Ellison: America's Cup win helps Ellison and Oracle brand

Oracle awarded Ell! ison a pay package valued at $78.4 million in its last fiscal year ending in May, down from $96.2 million in the previous year.

Ellison, 69, could have made even more last year if he hadn't turned down a $1.2 million bonus. He also limited his salary to $1 annually, a symbolic measure that has been embraced by several other Silicon Valley CEOs who are already billionaires, including Google's Larry Page and Hewlett Packard's Meg Whitman.

Oracle has primarily paid Ellison through stock options and other long-term incentives designed to prompt him to boost the company's market value and enrich shareholders. Ellison's pay packages have included an award of 7 million stock options in each of the last six years. Those awards are the main reason Ellison has ranked among the top-paid CEOs in each of those years.

The ultimate value of Ellison's stock options hinge on how Oracle's stock fares. In its response to CtW, Oracle pointed out that some of the stock options issued in Ellison in past years haven't made him any money because the cost of exercising them was higher than the price of the company's stock.

Millions of other stock options have yielded windfalls that have helped Ellison build upon a fortune estimated at $41 billion by Forbes magazine. Since the end of Oracle's fiscal 2007, Ellison has realized gains totaling $851 million by exercising 55.4 million stock options, according to the company's regulatory filings. More than $151 million of those gains came in Oracle's most recent fiscal year.

If Oracle refuses to change its policies CtW plans to wage a campaign aimed at persuading its labor union allies and other major Oracle shareholders to oppose the re-election of the three directors on the company's compensation committee.

Those directors are: Bruce Chizen, a former CEO of Adobe Systems who has chaired the compensation committee for nearly three years; venture capitalist George Conrades, who is also chairman of Akamai Technologies; and Naomi Seligman, a partner ! at techno! logy consultant Ostriker von Simson.

Earlier this year, CtW led shareholder protests against Hewlett-Packard's board. Although the directors were re-elected, the opposition was strong enough to culminate in former Oracle executive Ray Lane's resignation as HP's chairman and the departure of HP's two longest-serving directors.

In its letter, Oracle accused CtW of trying to orchestrate a misleading campaign against the company's board and hailed Ellison as "its most critical strategic visionary, a role that he has served and continues to serve our shareholders extremely well."

With Ellison in charge, Oracle said it has returned nearly $40 billion to shareholders during the past decade. The company's stock rose by 28% in its last fiscal year, outperforming the 24% increase in the Standard & Poor's 500 over the same period.

Even without options, Ellison benefits more than any other Oracle shareholder when the stock rises because he owns a 25% stake in the company.

Ellison has used his wealth to buy luxurious estates around the world, as well as his own Hawaiian island, Lanai. He also bankrolled two victories in the America's Cup, with the most recent triumph in sailing's most prestigious event coming last week in San Francisco. Oracle's brand was featured prominently in the competition.

Precious Metals: Gold, Silver and Miners Are Trapped

The precious metal market has been stuck in a strong down trend since 2012. But the recent chart, volume and technical analysis is starting to show some signs that a bottom may have already taken place.

This report focused on the weekly and monthly charts which allow us to see the bigger picture of where the precious metals sector stands in terms of its trend.

Let's take a look at a few charts below for a quick overview, but if you want more interesting ones visit:https://stockcharts.com/public/1992897

Gold Spot Price – Weekly Chart

This chart clearly shows the trends which gold has gone through in the last three years. With simple technical analysis trend lines, clearly price is nearing a significant apex which will result in a strong breakout in either direction.

Remember, this is the weekly chart, so we could still have another month or three of sideways chatter to work through. But a breakout in either direction will trigger a large move.

goldtrend

Silver Spot Price – Weekly Chart

Silver is also stuck in a similar pattern. Currently the odds still favors lower prices and for the upper resistance trend line to reject price and send it lower. But if we keep out eye on the leading indicators like gold miners, we may be able to catch a breakout or traded the rejection of resistance in the next month or so.

silvertrend

Gold Mining Stock ETF – Monthly Chart

Gold miners have a very sloppy looking chart. Price is extremely volatile and the recent price action in 2013 could go either way VERY quickly. I have a gut feeling GDX in the coming months could have a washout bottom and tag the $20 price level. While I hope I am wrong for many investors sake, if it does happen, it will be a very strong investment level to accumulate a position.

gdxtrend

Precious Metals Bigger Picture Outlook:

In short, I remain neutral – bearish for this sector. In the next 1-3 months we are likely to see some strong price action which will be great. We need a breakout or bottoming pattern to form before we get involved at this level.

I know everyone is dying to get involved in precious metals again for another huge rally… but sometimes it's just best to wait for the big picture chart to catch up with your bias before taking a position of size.

Get My Free Weekly Trading Sector Reports
Delivered To Your Inbox: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Zynga Inc (ZNGA) Q3 Earnings Preview: What To Expect?

Zynga, Inc. (NASDAQ:ZNGA) will hold a conference call to discuss financial results for its third quarter on Oct. 24, 2013, at 2:00 p.m.Pacific Time (5:00 p.m. Eastern Time), following the release of its financial results after the close of market.

San Francisco, California-based Zynga is a leading provider of social game services. Zynga's popular games include Zynga Poker, Words With Friends, Scramble With Friends, Gems With Friends, Draw Something, FarmVille 2, ChefVille, CityVille, Bubble Safari and Ruby Blast.

Wall Street expects Zynga to report a loss of 4 cents a share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. In the same period last year, Zygna reported breakeven results. Zynga sees third quarter loss of 2 to 5 cents a share.

In the last three quarters, Zynga's earnings have managed to top Street view, with upside surprise ranging between 75 and 133.3 percent. However, the Street's enthusiasm for Zynga's earnings have diminished as the consensus loss estimate has widened by 2 cents in the past 90 days. On the positive side, two analysts have raised their third quarter expectations for Zynga in the past 30 days.

Quarterly revenues are expected to decline 43.9 percent to $143.35 million from $255.61 million a year-ago. In the past four quarters, the company's revenue growth has been -31, -18, flat and 3 percent, respectively. The company forecasts revenue of $175 million to $200 million.

The comments of Mattrick during the second quarter call "we expect to see more volatility in our business than we would like over the next two to four quarters," doesn't bode well for the third quarter results.

Zynga is taking substantial steps to restructure its business away from web-based social PC games in an attempt to narrow its focus on mobile gaming, and the transition toward mobile gaming is likely to weigh on its earnings.

Recently, co-founder Justin Waldron left the company to pursue other goals and Zynga have lost its position as the top game-maker f! or Facebook to King.com, which develops "Candy Crush Saga." King.com has a monthly active user base of 159.4 million versus Zynga's 131.5 million, according to AppData. This shows fewer users are playing Zynga games on Facebook.

Daily active users (DAUs) of Zynga fell 45 percent to 39 million in the second quarter of 2013. Monthly active users (MAUs) decreased 39 percent to 187 million and monthly unique users (MUUs) also fell 36 percent to 123 million.

The magnitude of the reductions indicates a faster-than-anticipated deterioration for web-based social games and possibly a more challenging transition ahead for the company as it shifts toward more fragmented mobile gaming platforms. In this scenario, bookings would be a key metric. Bookings were $188 million for the second quarter of 2013, a decrease of 38 percent from last year.

Through the first two months of the third quarter, worldwide desktop comScore data for Zynga showed a 31.4 percent YoY decline in unique visitors globally, but a 2.8 percent increase in total minutes and a 22 percent increase in total page views.

U.S. mobile data (iPhone + Android) showed weaker trends, with unique visitors declining 27.2 percent YoY and mobile minutes slipping 14.1 percent.

During the quarter, the company hired Don Mattrick as CEO. Mattrick hails from Microsoft's Xbox business and succeeded founder Mark Pincus. Pincus remains the Chairman and Chief Product Officer of Zynga.

Following his appointment, Mattrick announced an organization restructure that led to the departure of three executives – David Ko (Chief Operating Officer), Cadir Lee (Chief Technology Officer), and Colleen McCreary (Chief People Officer) – and a realignment of other leaders. Recently, co-founder Justin Waldron just left the company to pursue other goals.

Investors expect Mattrick to provide further details on the company's new organizational structure and operating priorities on the upcoming conference call.

"We estimate online game rev! enue will! be $162mm, down 43% YoY," UBS analyst Eric Sheridan wrote in a note to clients.

Dojo Mojo and Castleville Legends were among the major releases during the quarter, though Zynga also launched Words with Friends in seven new languages (Spanish, Italian, Portuguese, Danish, Dutch, Russian and Swedish).

Late in the second quarter, Zynga launched Hidden Shadows and Eden to Green (the latter developed by iNiS), which is expected to have a greater contribution in the third quarter than in second.

During the second quarter earnings call, Zynga announced that the company would not pursue real money gaming licenses in U.S. jurisdictions. That said, the company's real money gaming offerings in the UK (ZyngaPlusPoker and ZyngaPlusCasino) remain active.

"We look forward to hearing more about management's plans regarding the international real money gaming opportunity, as well as thoughts on revisiting the U.S. opportunity in the future, Sheridan said.

For the second quarter, Zynga's loss narrowed to $15.8 million or 2 cents a share from $22.8 million or 3 cents a share last year. Excluding items, adjusted loss was 1 cent a share. Zynga's revenues for the second quarter dropped to $230.7 million from $332.5 million last year.

Zynga has reported third quarter results just once in its short history as a public company, trading up 12 percent following those results. The stock has outperformed the market by about 34 percent this year.

The Good Jobs Report Does Not Offset The Many Negatives

Friday's report that 195,000 new jobs were created in June was much better than the consensus forecast for 155,000, as were the upward revisions of previous reports for April and May. The only negative in the report was that, while the headline unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.6%, U6 unemployment, which includes workers who can only find part-time jobs, or have become too discouraged to look for a job any longer, climbed to 14.3% in June from 13.8% in May.

However, as I have written before, employment is a lagging indicator. It remains weak until well after the economy has begun to recover from a recession, and remains firm for some time after the economy has begun to slow. For instance, although the 2008-2009 recession ended in June, 2009, the economy continued to lose jobs monthly until December.

So the strong jobs reports for April, May and now June do not change the fact that the U.S. economy appears to be in trouble.

That observation is not based on opinions related to individual economic reports, but to actual disorders.

There was the recent final report of first-quarter GDP growth, revised down from the previous estimate of an already anemic 2.4% to just 1.8%.

Then there was this week's report that the U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in June, by 12.1%. It was the second straight monthly jump in the deficit, as imports grow and exports decline. It is a negative for the economy and has already prompted Barclays to cut its previous second-quarter GDP growth forecast from 1.6% to just 1.0%.

And last week, the Chicago Fed reported that the three-month moving average of its National Business Activity Index (the Fed's index of 85 individual economic indicators), designed to determine when the economy moves into and out of recessions, plunged to -0.42 in May. That was not only sharply in negative territory but getting uncomfortably close to the -0.70 level that the Fed says indicates the economy is in recession.

Note that these indications of a sign! ificant economic slowdown took place in the months when the employment reports were very positive, further indicating the lack of predictive value in the jobs reports, particularly at potential turning points in the economy.

Meanwhile, global problems of a year or two ago, which were resolved by kicking them down the road to 2013 or 2014, have apparently discovered that we're halfway through 2013 already.

The eurozone debt crisis has returned to the headlines. Last week, Greece acknowledged its lack of progress in meeting the economic reforms required of it by the terms of its bailout. Its officials are negotiating for more time and easing of the requirements, while EU and IMF leaders threaten to withhold the next payment of the bailout.

Portugal, which was held up as an example of a bailout country doing all the right things to get its economy back in shape, is now seeing its debt situation being described again as "very fragile." This week Portugal raised further fears that it is potentially on the verge of political collapse when two cabinet members abruptly resigned in protest over how Portugal's debt crisis is being handled.

Tensions were eased Thursday when Portuguese officials made statements assuring they will strive to preserve the coalition government. And European Central Bank President Draghi issued a statement saying the ECB will hold its interest rates low or even go lower "for an extended period of time."

Those assurances calmed European markets on Thursday and they surged higher. But the relief was only temporary. They couldn't hold the gains and were sharply back to the downside on Friday.

Meanwhile, back in the U.S., Fed Chairman Bernanke spooked markets on May 22 with his testimony before Congress that the Fed could begin dialing back QE stimulus as early as June. So far, May 22 marked the market's peak.

After global markets plunged in response to those remarks, Chairman Bernanke and several Fed governors rushed out two wee! ks ago in! an attempt to calm markets by re-stating what Bernanke meant, providing assurances that the Fed will not begin dialing back stimulus until the economy shows more signs of strength.

The calming words did work two weeks ago to halt the market declines.

However, Friday's strong jobs report has resulted in Fed tapering prospects moving back to the front burner. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said Friday that he is now convinced the Fed will begin to taper QE stimulus at its September FOMC meeting, just two months from now.

So, while Friday's report was another positive employment report, it does not change anything regarding the concerns that have been affecting global markets negatively since the May top - the slowing U.S. economy, the effects of government spending cuts and higher taxes brought on by the "sequester," the continuing recession and debt crisis in the 17-nation eurozone, the slowing economy of China, and the specter of the U.S. Fed soon beginning to remove the punchbowl of QE stimulus.

So, investors need to remain cautious, and not let the jobs report overly affect their judgment.

Source: The Good Jobs Report Does Not Offset The Many Negatives

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)

How to choose the right investment plan?

A: Before we go to the allocation of investments, let us focus on what should be a style of investment. I will recommend retail investors that your style of investment should be for short-term pain and long-term gain rather than short-term gain and long-term pain. Let me define this further; typically in a momentum market prices keep on rising everyday but over a period of time market loses its momentum and comes down to the fair value. When you invest in a momentum market you will always have short-term gain. You bought something today it goes up tomorrow, you buy more it goes up further, you feel happy. Eventually you put more money and the market corrects and then you are nursing your wounds.

On the other hand the market is not in momentum, you buy something invariably Murphy's Law come into play, you see the price erosion, you have to buy more and then again Murphy's Law come into play and you further lose money. Now you have to buy a lot and after that market will recorrect and it will go to fair value and you will make lot of money. So, you have to invest for short-term pain and long-term gain. Most retail investors follow the reverse strategy of generating short-term gain and incurring long-term pain.

In terms of an average tax paying investor, his allocation should essentially comprise in today's scenario, something towards safe assets and safe assets will include bank deposits, savings bank account, which will fund him for liquidity, liquid mutual funds which can take care of his liquid needs, he can invest in debt mutual funds, tax free bonds and corporate debentures and corporate fix deposits. All this combination on a post tax adjusted basis gives him surety of return with lower risk. You want to invest in high credit instruments and you do not want to take credit risk on the safe money, so invest in AA and above rated instruments, monitor the credit rating clearly and if there is a credit downgrade then do not hesitate to book loss and move out of that investment.

The other class of investments which comes which is bit illiquid is real estate and gold. Real estate is again something where you will need either for staying or for investment. If you are investing in real estate go towards reputed developers where delivery of real estate is not a question and try to invest in those areas which are developing and which over a period of time the center of city will shift over there. In gold again try to go via gold ETF where you don't have to worry about the quality and storage rather than buying physical gold. At least in gold ETF the liquidity is guaranteed whereas in physical gold you never know whether jewelers will be able to honor their commitment or not.

Finally other asset class which emerges is equity. Here again you will have to go for quality blue-chip names and if you are not able to identify them, go for equity mutual funds. One interesting thing which people need to do, like in Gujarati community every time in Diwali we follow a tradition of throwing garbage out of our house. It is a symbolic thing of throwing unnecessary garbage out of our house. I think we need to do that with our portfolio also. So over a period of time you will realize that you have so many aqua culture companies, NBFC companies, technology companies which are not in existence. It is time to throw that garbage out and keep good quality stocks in your house.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Apple (AAPL) Unveils Free OS at iPad Event, Microsoft (MSFT) Drops

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Though much of what Apple (AAPL) revealed at Tuesday's event was as expected, one surprise takeaway was the tech giant revealing that its updated operating system OS X Mavericks and productivity suite iWork will be available free of charge.

Along with its launch of the iPad Air and iPad Mini, the iPhone maker announced that the refreshed operating system will be available for download immediately through the App Store, free to Mac users with OS X Moutain Lion- or Snow Leopard-enabled hardware. For OS X Server (a multi-user business platform), there is a $19.99 upgrade charge.

Unlike rival Microsoft (MSFT), which sells Windows 8.1 and Pro for $120 and $200, respectively, at retail, Apple seems content with its strategy of giving the intangibles away for free to drive hardware sales. In response, Microsoft shares dropped 1.17%, with its biggest falls of the day coinciding with the Apple event.

Mavericks, modeled on the iOS 7 for the iPhone and iPad, introduces 200 new features, including iBooks (which syncs a user's books and reading activity across all iCloud devices) and Apple maps. It also improves the performance and battery life of the Mac. "We want every Mac user to experience the latest features, the most advanced technologies and the strongest security," said Craig Federighi, Apple's senior vice president of software engineering, in a statement. "We believe the best way to do this is to begin a new era of personal computing software where OS upgrades are free." Shares of the Cupertino-based company dipped 0.29% at market close, but have since gained 0.25% in after-hours trading. TheStreet Ratings team rates Apple Inc as a Buy with a ratings score of B+. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about its recommendation: "We rate Apple Inc (AAPL) a BUY. This is driven by multiple strengths, which we believe should have a greater impact than any weaknesses, and should give investors a better performance opportunity than most stocks we cover. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures, expanding profit margins and notable return on equity. We feel these strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had lackluster performance in the stock itself." Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows: AAPL's revenue growth has slightly outpaced the industry average of 0.7%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly increased by 0.8%. This growth in revenue does not appear to have trickled down to the company's bottom line, displayed by a decline in earnings per share. AAPL's debt-to-equity ratio is very low at 0.14 and is currently below that of the industry average, implying that there has been very successful management of debt levels. To add to this, AAPL has a quick ratio of 1.54, which demonstrates the ability of the company to cover short-term liquidity needs. 41.67% is the gross profit margin for APPLE INC which we consider to be strong. Regardless of AAPL's high profit margin, it has managed to decrease from the same period last year. Despite the mixed results of the gross profit margin, AAPL's net profit margin of 19.53% compares favorably to the industry average. Current return on equity is lower than its ROE from the same quarter one year prior. This is a clear sign of weakness within the company. When compared to other companies in the Computers & Peripherals industry and the overall market, APPLE INC's return on equity exceeds that of the industry average and significantly exceeds that of the S&P 500. APPLE INC's earnings per share declined by 19.8% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. This company has reported somewhat volatile earnings recently. We feel it is likely to report a decline in earnings in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, APPLE INC increased its bottom line by earning $44.16 versus $27.67 in the prior year. For the next year, the market is expecting a contraction of 10.8% in earnings ($39.38 versus $44.16). You can view the full analysis from the report here: AAPL Ratings Report

Monday, October 21, 2013

Canada Stocks Rise as Materials Producers Rally on Growth Bets

Canadian stocks rose for a fifth day, the longest winning streak since May, as a rally among miners on speculation that economic growth will spur commodity demand overshadowed a drop among energy producers.

Detour Gold Corp. and Alacer Gold (ASR) Corp. each added at least 6.8 percent to pace advances among producers of raw materials. Maple Leaf Foods Inc. jumped 10 percent as the company said it might sell its 90 percent stake in Canada Bread Co. Athabasca Oil Co. slid 2.9 percent to the lowest since May to pace declines among energy producers.

The Standard & Poor's/TSX Composite Index rose 50.44 points, or 0.4 percent, to 13,186.53 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. Trading was 9.5 percent above the 30-day average.

"If you have global growth, companies can make longer-term decisions, which means expansion in production and employment, and therefore everyone's using more commodities," Paul Gardner, portfolio manager at Avenue Investment Management, said in a phone interview from Toronto. He helps manage C$300 million ($290 million). "If you have an economy back on track in the U.S., you will have normalized GDP growth, and that's better for commodities."

The benchmark Canadian equity gauge has rallied 2.3 percent in the past five sessions, giving it the longest string of gains streak since May that left the index at the highest level in more than two years.

Economic Growth

U.S. equities jumped to a record last week after lawmakers ended a 16-day partial government shutdown and reached a debt agreement that averted a default. Data from China showed economic growth accelerated for the first time in three quarters, with gross domestic product gaining 7.8 percent in the third quarter. China and the U.S. are the biggest consumers of commodities and Canada's largest trading partners.

The S&P/TSX Materials Index jumped 1.6 percent today, the most among 10 groups in the benchmark gauge. Gold producers rallied, as the metal's price advanced for the third time in four days in New York. Speculation that the Federal Reserve would delay tapering monthly bond buying boosted gold's appeal as a store of value.

Detour Gold rose 8.9 percent to C$8.08 and Alacer Gold added 6.8 percent to C$2.98.

Endeavour Silver Corp. gained 4.8 percent to C$4.60 as the price of the metal for December delivery jumped 1.7 percent.

Maple Leaf Foods, the Toronto-based maker of meats and packaged goods, surged 10 percent to C$14.63 for the biggest gain in 13 years. The company said it is considering selling its 90 percent stake in Canada Bread.

Bombardier Gains

Bombardier Inc. jumped 4.3 percent to C$5.30, a two-year high, after the world's third-largest airplane maker said it received 30 new firm orders for its Learjet 85 aircraft from Flexjet LLC.

Montreal-based Bombardier's share price has risen for four straight sessions amid optimism that the company's agreement to sell as many as 30 CSeries aircraft to a Chinese leasing company may prompt fresh deals with customers from the Asian nation.

Energy companies slid 0.1 percent as a group, halting a three-day advance, as the price of crude for November delivery dropped 1.6 percent. Inventories increased to the highest level in three months in the U.S., the world's biggest oil-consuming country.

Athabasca Oil fell 2.9 percent to C$6.09 for its fifth straight drop. The oil-sands developer that began publicly trading in 2010 plunged last week following an Alberta court's decision to allow an aboriginal group to appeal the provincial regulator's approval of the company's Dover project.

Atlantic Power Corp. dropped 5 percent to C$5.16 after the company was downgraded to underperform from neutral at Macquarie Group Ltd.

Where to Go for the Most Valuable Investment News

When it comes to learning more about your favorite businesses, the best source for information isn't likely to be The Wall Street Journal, Investor's Business Daily, or even here at Fool.com. The best sources of investment news are more likely to be industry-specific blogs and expert social media feeds, says Fool contributor Tim Beyers in the following video.

Legendary investor Philip Fisher called this data gathering method "scuttlebutt" in his book, Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits. In Fisher's day, gathering investment news and intel meant talking with salespeople or executives, asking them to open up about competitors they most admired.

Blogs and social media have since changed the equation. Take Twitter, which has become a must-watch source of breaking news for traders. LinkedIn (NYSE: LNKD  ) , meanwhile, has spent millions beefing up its newsgathering capabilities in order to position the site as a tool for competitive intelligence. The latest? A $92.9 million deal for Pulse.

Incentives call for LinkedIn to pay out up to 480 million shares to Pulse team members, according to the company's latest 10-Q quarterly report. The deal sends a clear message: Scuttlebutt is more difficult to find in a noisy world, which makes tools for gathering it all the more valuable.

Are you using the scuttlebutt method in your search for investment news? Tim walks you through his strategy in the video. Please watch and then, if you haven't already, start a Motley Fool watch list. Clicking here will get you started gathering intel about LinkedIn. How you use it is up to you.

This incredible tech stock is growing 2x as fast as Google and Facebook, and more than 3x as fast as Amazon.com and Apple. Watch our jaw-dropping investor alert video today to find out why The Motley Fool's Chief Technology Officer is putting $117,238 of his own money on the table. And why he's so confident this will be a huge winner in 2013 and beyond. Just click here to watch!

First time investor? Here's a cheat sheet!

Are you a first time investor?

A sound portfolio is the first step to help you grow your money over a period of time. There will be some time and effort that will be required to construct a good portfolio. Diversification of the portfolio should be one aspect that should remain at the forefront in its construction. Diversification will also help in the reduction of risk and that is something that first time investors would benefit from. Attaining this would require some efforts as well as a new thought process and this is something to aim for.

Diversification

Diversification is the process of spreading out the investment amounts across different areas so that there is a lesser chance of all of the investments behaving in a similar manner.  Diversification will ensure that there is a lesser chance of all the investments in the portfolio moving together. This reduces the extent of the changes in the portfolio and consequently reduces risk. 

Diversification is also a way to inject certain type of behaviour to the portfolio because using just one type of asset or investment would mean that if something goes wrong in that area there would be a significant impact on the overall portfolio and performance. As more and more investment options are introduced there is a tendency for some of them to behave differently which will reduce the extent of change in the portfolio. A very good example is for a first time investor like you to spread their money across fixed deposits, bonds, equities and have some liquid amount as cash. This is diversification as compared to a situation where you just have equities in the portfolio or just debt instruments like fixed deposits.

When all your money is in a single area like equities and the stock markets are weak then there will be a negative impact on your entire portfolio. On the other hand by having some money in fixed deposits and bonds there will be less volatility in the overall investments and at the same time there is also some regular income flow that is not dependent on just the performance of the stock market.

Example of a portfolio of a 45 year old individual spread out across different asset classes
 
Types of diversification

As a first time investor you need to have certain guidelines that will direct your efforts towards ensuring effective diversification for your portfolio. There are different ways in which this can be achieved so you have to ensure that on an overall basis there is effective impact of the effort to diversify.

Asset classes

One of the best ways to diversify your portfolio is to actually have an exposure to multiple asset classes.  It is not a good idea to have just a single asset class in your portfolio so on one side only real estate in the portfolio can lead to a high level of risk but at the same time there is also a significant risk if all the money is in fixed income or debt instruments.

If interest rates decline significantly then there is a chance that if you have only fixed deposits then you will be hit disproportionately hard as these come up for renewal.  A very good example has been seen of people who retired in the late nineties and invested the entire amount of their retirement money in debt instruments like bonds, debentures and fixed deposits.

At that time they were earning 15-16 per cent interest but after a few years they found themselves in a tough spot as the average rate fell to around 7-8 per cent. Having different asset classes like equities, commodities, debt and some amounts in cash can ensure that changes in one area will not have a disproportionately higher impact on the overall financial position.
Example of how excess exposure to debt instruments can lead to risk if returns fall
 
Individual holdings

If there are a small number of holdings in the portfolio then you run the risk that changes to a few of them would determine the manner in which the entire portfolio would move.

The way to tackle this position is to have a larger number of holdings wherever the investment is being made so that the impact of a sudden change can be minimised. If you are investing in equities then you should ensure that there are not just 3-4 shares but a larger number like 15-20 in your portfolio. A way to do this is to invest through the mutual fund route where even a small amount of investment can give you access to a larger number of holdings thus helping in the diversification process.

Sector exposure

There is also a situation where the exposure to a certain sector might be quite high and this also increases the element of risk in the portfolio.  The investment could be in debt or in equity but if there is a high exposure to a certain area say real estate or infrastructure and then there are some tough times for the sector then this could hit you particularly hard.

A way to avoid this is to ensure that the portfolio amounts are spread out across different sectors. The situation would look rosy when things are going well as seen as was witnessed in the late nineties with information technology funds.

A couple of years later as the dot com bubble burst investors in these funds witnessed a sharp fall in value. Having an exposure to a sector fund involves higher risk but when done in the context of a portfolio and in a controlled manner it can lead to a better position on the overall returns front. Examples are Fast Moving Consumer Goods and banking funds that have done well in terms of returns. 

Size of companies

There are different types of companies that are present in the economic landscape. Some of them are large in size as well as market capitalisation while others are mid size and many are quite small. 

It is always better to have an exposure in your portfolio through different assets across companies of different sizes as this will balance out the risk in the portfolio. This will result in a position where the portfolio will behave differently when there are some developments that affect companies of a certain size.

Reduced volatility

When there are just a few holdings in the portfolio or a significant portion is in similar instruments then the behaviour of a large part of the portfolio could turn out to be similar.  It has also been historically seen that there are various asset classes like gold and equities that do not necessarily move in the same direction at the same time.

A careful inclusion of different options can ensure that you can try and reduce the volatility. Take an example whereby there is a single holding represented by the blue line.

This will move widely depending upon the situation on a daily basis. On the other hand the movement of the red line represented by a diversified holding like a mutual fund scheme is far smaller on a daily basis. Adequate diversification acts as an attractive way for first time investors as they familiarise themselves in the investment world.
 
Why diversification makes sense?

Starting up

As a first time investor you require time to understand how the capital markets work and the manner in which individual securities behave. After there is familiarity with the investment you can then afford to take a higher amount of risk. Diversification is the best tool for a first time investor to make the investments in the manner that they actually want to as they can ensure that the required position suits their requirements.

Unpredictable markets

The markets are also uncertain and it is difficult to predict for a lay investor about the direction in which specific assets will move. Avoiding this difficulty is possible by diversifying across a range of asset classes and holdings so that there are balancing factors that will be at work. This will reduce the pressure to predict which investment option will be the winner in the time ahead.

Lack of expertise

As a lay investor it is difficult to spend hours in trying to analyse the possible developments in the various markets and hence diversifying not only across assets but also within assets is a good way to ensure that  you do not have too many eggs in a single basket. You should look towards reducing the chances of a significant loss and this is possible by using the mutual fund route that brings along diversification.

How should I tackle this situation?

There is a long road ahead on the investment journey for first time investors like you. Starting your investments well is half the battle won and you should look to reduce risk for your investments. This will help protect against negative fallout that can even reduce your capital.

Diversification through choosing multiple asset classes which includes fixed income, equities, cash and even commodities over a period of time as you construct your portfolio would be the right way to go. Even within each of these areas efforts should be undertaken to ensure that there is some diversification that is attempted. Consider using mutual funds as an effective way of ensuring diversification in your portfolio as these are one of the best instruments that help in implantation.