6 Charts That Will Scare You Away From For-Profit Schools (APOL, CECO, COCO)

While the given problems that are plaguing Corinthian Colleges Inc. (NASDAQ:COCO) are unique to that particular for-profit school today, the underpinnings for today's 62% implosion from COCO shares are just as big of a threat to the likes of Apollo Education Group Inc. (NASDAQ:APOL), Career Education Corp. (NASDAQ:CECO), and most other for-profit education names. In fact, those woes have been well documented for a while, and showing up each company's books for almost as long. Pictures tell the grim tale for CECO, APOL, and all the rest as effectively as any words could, so let's let the images of what's going on here do most of the talking, beginning with... Career Education Corp.

As the chart of the Career Education revenue and earnings trends indicate, things have been deteriorating since 2010's peak, when a massive number of displaced and unemployed people decided to make themselves more marketable by gaining a new credential. A string of credibility problems has been digging in since then, however, pulling CECO down as much as it's pulled the company's results down.

The future doesn't look any better for CECO shareholders either. In fact, it looks worse. The pros feel Career Education is on pace to post a loss of $2.22 this year, down from the loss of $1.44 last year.

Apollo Education Group is in just as much trouble. It's on a collision course with losses within the next couple of years if things don't turn around.

And, from a fundamental as well as a socio-political perspective, it doesn't look like anything's going to change. The pros believe CECO is going to see its per-share profit slump from 2013's $3.16 to $2.33 this year.

And just for the record, it's not like Corinthian Colleges isn't in the same boat - today's alarming news is just a microcosm of the bigger, underlying problems the company as well as the industry is facing. COCO has seen its top line and bottom line faltering since 2011.

Corinthian Colleges could slip into the red at a moment's notice too... or without notice. From a per-share profit of $1.65 in 2010 to only $0.20 last year to a predicted profit of only $0.09 this year, there's little for COCO owners to look forward to, with or without today's dark cloud.

To be fair, there are some for-profit schools hanging on, offering glimmers of hope. Most of them look a little too much like Corinthian Colleges, Apollo Education Group, and Career Education, however, to say there's not a bigger, systemic problem in place that may be insurmountable. That problem, of course, is a combination of dwindling student loan support and weaker-than-touted job placements rates. It's going to take years - and maybe a complete implosion and overhaul - for the for-profit school industry to becoming investment-worthy again. 

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Money Lessons From My Mom

Getty ImagesMoms often teach their kids some of their earliest money lessons. As a child, my mom always made me feel safe, secure and loved. But she also made it a priority to prepare me for a life of financial stability. She spent a lot of time and effort over the years to set me on the right path. Sometimes she taught by example, and other times it was necessary for me to learn the hard way. These lessons have become a part of my core set of values and impact how I strive to teach my own child as well as my work for a coupon company. Here are some of the key money lessons I learned from my mom. Make your own money: My mom believed I wouldn't truly understand the value of a dollar unless I had to earn it myself. I got my first job at 15 and continued to have a job throughout college. Yes, working for minimum wage while my friends spent lazy days by the pool was hard. But as time went on, I realized I made more responsible decisions when I earned my money. I became a savvy shopper and learned to use coupons and scoured store sales and clearance racks for the best deals. Invest: Sometimes spending less doesn't equal saving more. I remember on one of our shopping trips, I proudly showed my mom a trendy blouse I had fallen in love with and it was only $10! I was sure she couldn't object. Not so fast. After closely eyeing the cheap garment, she asked me how many times I'd be able to wear it before it fell apart or was no longer fashionable. Two times? Three times? This taught me my first lesson in investment shopping: Calculate the per wear price. It didn't seem like such a bargain after all. Sometimes it's worth paying more for high-quality, timeless pieces if I can get more uses and versatility out of them in the long-run. Make it work: As you could probably guess, my mom didn't grow up with a silver spoon in her mouth. There was no extra money to spend on items deemed frivolous, which unfortunately for her meant toys. She became very resourceful with what she had around her. She made flowers by folding old newspapers and caught insects to keep as pets to distract herself from the fact that she didn't have dolls to play with. She reimaged most items into serving more than one purpose. Once when I ran out of glue for a school project, she used some leftover cooked rice from our dinner and mashed together a sticky paste to hold together my artwork. Cash in on the perks: We were fortunate that the company my father worked for paid for annual family vacations, including first class tickets and upgraded hotel accommodations. A very nice perk indeed! However, she would book us in coach and we would stay in more moderately priced lodgings or sometimes even stay home for a staycation. There were times I whined about it, but she would respond that we would have more spending money for shopping and fun activities. She won that argument every time. Let your head rule your heart: This isn't to say my mom doesn't believe in true love or romance. But she felt having financial compatibility with your mate was just as necessary to sustain a happy marriage. It was important that she and my father were on the same page with their spending habits and financial goals. Bad spending of habits of one person in a family causes bad consequences for everyone. Stay organized: She was a firm believer of having a place for everything, and everything in its place. How would I pay my bills if I couldn't find my checkbook, or know when the bills were due if they were scattered around the house? Getting charged my first $25 late fee for a bill I forgot to pay painfully proved this point. Today, there are several mobile apps and websites that make it easy to organize finances and bills online, which I've taken full advantage of because the groundwork was laid years ago. Know when to hold them, know when to fold them: I used to cringe that her relentless bargaining skills could reduce a grown man to tears, but more times than not, she got what she felt was a fair price. She taught me to set a budget beforehand and not to be afraid to ask for a discount to get to that amount. The worse answer I could hear was "no." And if I couldn't close the deal, she taught me to just walk away. At times that was easier said than done, but she felt that agreeing to pay beyond your budget was the same as tossing money in the garbage. That mental picture has stopped me from many last-minute purchases. I'll admit I've faltered from my mom's lessons over the years. Nobody's perfect, after all. But thanks to my mom, when I get financially off-kilter, I have the tools to always get myself back on track. .

Women Lagging On 401k Participation Rates

At Investing Daily, we have grown increasingly concerned with the national trend toward underfunded retirement plans. As a service to our readers, for the next few weeks we'll send you a complimentary series of focused briefs to get you thinking about new ways to maximize performance both inside and outside of a structured 401k or similar plan. We hope you'll find these briefs useful.

This is the fifth installment in a five-part series.

Retirement assets can really add up, especially if you invest early and take advantage of employer perks such as company matching. So why are more men than women using 401k plans?

That's the deal, as reported in a new study by banking giant Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC).

Wells Fargo runs 401k programs for four million US workers, giving it valuable insights into the trends and habits among its army of would-be 401k Millionaires. The bank's data points to a plan participation gap between men and women.

According to the report:

In a review of data compiled from 2,036 companies where gender was indicated, about half of all men (49 percent) and four out of 10 women (43 percent) are enrolled in their workplace retirement plan. When compared to Wells Fargo's recommended contribution index, which measures how many people are saving a minimum target of 10 percent in their 401k plan, including employer match, 43 percent of men contribute at this rate versus 39 percent of women.

Even a 4 percent gap in gender 401k plan participation rates can cost women savers real money.

Wells Fargo points out that plan participants who contributed to their 401k plans saw their average balances rise 19 percent and 35 percent over the past two years, largely due to stock market gains.

"In general, all men and women need to take full advantage of their workplace retirement plan and embrace the 401k as the primary retirement benefit," explains Joe! Ready, director of Wells Fargo Institutional Retirement and Trust. "In our view, if people have access to a 401k they should try to save at least 10 percent. The power of saving regularly, coupled with the compounding effect of time, can create a financial foundation for people that results in much greater retirement security."

Compounding, often dubbed the "miracle of compounded interest" allows 401k plan money to grow steadily over time, especially if you keep plowing money into your plan, and don't take any of it out before retirement.

Your plan assets grow as the underlying stocks, bonds and mutual funds earn positive returns. And with the last two years seeing market growth rates of 19 percent and 35 percent, respectively, that's a load of compounded interest.

One takeaway from the Wells Fargo study is that not only are men more likely to participate in a 401k plan, they're more aggressive with their investment choices. In contrast, women are more likely to diversify their investments and spread risk among different asset categories – say, a minimum of two equities and a fixed fund and less than 20 percent in employer stock – in their 401k account investments.

It's not an alarming gap, but the difference in 401k participation rates between men and women bears watching. If it grows wider, female 401k investors may face a bigger uphill climb to financial security than their male counterparts.

Stock investors, get ready for big bank earnings

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The first solid week of earnings will wear banker's stripes. For the stock market, that should be a good thing. But that earnings jolt may not last.

Big banks are expected to bust out some of the best bottom-line results of the season, and a lot of those come out this week. Of the 25 companies on the S&P 500 Index (SPX)  that are scheduled to report quarterly earnings this week, 17 belong to the financial sector. Half the six Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)  components reporting this week are financial firms.

TRADING STRATEGIES: January
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• Fourteen stocks for 2014
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Much like in the third-quarter, the financial sector is expected to have the best earnings growth in the fourth quarter, with an estimated growth rate of 22.6%, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. S&P 500 earnings as a whole are expected to grow 6.1%. Without the contribution of the financial sector, expected growth is 3%.

"When any one sector creates the majority of growth, everything else is very vulnerable to that sector," said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial. "If the mortgage market slows down, then corporate earnings growth goes away."

Still, a string of strong reports from the banks could provide investors with a new reason to buy into a rally that faltered a little in the last week.

FactSet Enlarge Image

The S&P 500 has only closed higher for three trading sessions this year, though it managed a weekly gain of 0.6%. The Dow industrials slipped 0.2% in the past week. The Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP)  fared the best, adding 1% for the week. All are less than 1% off their recent highs, and are coming off a historic year. The S&P 500 rallied 30% last year, its best year since 1997.

The reliance on the financial sector to drive earnings growth comes as the highest percentage of companies have issued profit warnings for the quarter. About 88% of profit outlooks for the quarter have been negative, Butters of FactSet noted. What's also potentially worrisome is that a significant amount of that profit is coming from cost-cutting and financial engineering. Financial companies announced more job cuts last year than any other corporate sector, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.

What's more, the financial sector is expected to be the biggest drag on revenue growth for the quarter. With the S&P 500 expected to post 0.3% revenue growth for the fourth quarter, revenue for the financial sector is expected to decline by 10.2%, according to Butters. Much of that has to do with Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU) , which had a big one-time revenue gain due to pension risk-transfer transactions in the year-ago quarter. But even without the insurer, revenue for the sector is still expected to decline by 0.3%, according to Butters.

/quotes/zigman/21809808/realtime BKX 70.77, -0.25, -0.35% /quotes/zigman/3870025/realtime SPX 1,842.37, +4.24, +0.23% Bank stocks vs. S&P 500

And it's not just the banks. While there are some businesses that are doing fundamentally better, for the most part, corporate earnings are benefitting more from financial engineering than fundamental growth, Commonwealth's McMillan said.

"They're getting better at wringing more juice from the apple," McMillan said. "At some point, that has to stop."

In order for the economy to grow, companies are going to have to start investing more in capital expenditures and job growth, he said, the very things they have squeezed to sustain high margins. Plus with higher interest rates, businesses are face fading tailwinds from debt refinancing and share buybacks. In the third quarter, share buybacks, mostly financed with cheap debt, topped their highest levels since 2007 at about $128 billion, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Over the fourth quarter, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury (10_YEAR)  rose to 2.97% from 2.61%. In the year-ago period, the yield rose 1.76% from 1.64%. Additionally, the rate on a 30-year mortgage averaged 4.46% in December, compared with an average of 3.35% in December 2012, according to Freddie Mac data.

From an investment standpoint, financial sector stocks are still cheap relative to the rest of the S&P 500, even as they lead earnings growth, because investors are still wary of the regulatory environment, said Andrew Slimmon, managing director of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's Global Investment Solutions.

Retailers to roll out huge after-Christmas deals

Ho-ho-humph. For skeptics of holiday hype, here comes the last holiday sale of 2013.

For all the holding off and cutting back that consumers have been doing, retailers are hoping for a huge after-Christmas surge. But, once again, they may be disappointed. That, however, is not going to stop retailers — from Wal-Mart to Macy's to Target — from giving one last Santa-approved surge of after-Christmas deals.

For an early start, some online sales, including at Target.com and Kohls.com, start on Christmas Day. And for sales die-hards, many Wal-Mart and Kohl's stores will open on Thursday by 5 a.m.

"This is an especially big time for people who got gift cards to come and spend on what they didn't get for Christmas," says Sarah McKinney, a Wal-Mart spokeswoman. Indeed, it's the single-most popular day to redeem Target gift cards, says spokesman Antoine LaFromboise.

MONEY QUICK TIPS: Get some of your holiday shopping money back

Among Thursday's biggest sales incentives and retail deals:

• Buy one, get one free. Macy's rolls out buy one, get one free deals on many men's dress shirts and designer suits, says spokeswoman Elina Kazan.

• Cheap appliances. Sears is offering up to 40% off on appliances for shoppers who use their Sears card to purchase appliances over $499, says spokesman Brian Hanover.

• Free Gas. Kmart is offering its "Shop Your Way" members 50 cents per gallon gas discounts when they spend $25 or more on specific Procter & Gamble products.

• Half-price toys. Target, hit by a credit card and debit card breach that affected up to 40 million consumers, plans sales of up to 50% off select toys and 40% off thousands of apparel items. The sales have no relation to and were not affected by the data breach, says LaFromboise.

• Items 25% to 50% off. Wal-Mart stores will have "thousands" of items at 25% to 50% off, says McKinney. Among them: a Nintendo 3DS XL System for $199.96 — plus a $50 Wal-Mart gift card, with purchase.

• $10 coupons. J.C. Penney will offer coupons for $10 off purchases of $25 of more in a Christmas Day circular and also a coupon that can be printed from its website. The coupons are good through Dec. 28, says spokeswoman Daphne Availa.

• Hot toy deals. Buy one, get one 40% off on some red-hot toys, including Skylanders figures and accessories, at Toys R Us, through New Year's Day. The same offer applies to all video games. The post-Christmas deals are three days longer than last year, says spokeswoman Linda DeNotaris.

• Big incentives. At Kohl's, shoppers who spend under $100 will save an additional 15% off nearly everything in the store, while those who spend over $100 will save an additional 20%, says spokeswoman Jen Johnson.

• 33% off men's wear. Nordstrom's Half-Yearly Sale for men, which reduces prices as much as 33%, begins online Dec. 25 and in stores Dec. 26, says spokesman John Bailey.

HOLIDAY SALES BY THE NUMBERS

3.9%: Percentage the National Retail Federation still expects 2013 holiday sales to increase

Down 3.5%: Weekly in-store retail sales decline from Dec. 16 through 22 according to ShopperTrak

Amazon Just Validated NVIDIA GRID

Hold onto your hats, NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA  ) shareholders, because Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN  )  may have just made things a whole lot more interesting for your favorite graphics chip specialist.

But first, some background...
Thanks to a stronger-than-expected third-quarter report last week, NVIDIA stock is currently trading within just pennies of its 52-week-high. To be sure, NVIDIA handily exceeded analysts' earnings expectations in a performance owed largely to a long-awaited uptick in sales from its mobile-centric Tegra 4 line.

However, NVIDIA can also attribute those results to its surprisingly resilient GPU segment, which, even in the face of falling PC sales, has managed to maintain much of its prominence thanks to a combination of sales from Tesla's supercomputing line of GPUs, a loyal stable of hardcore gamers buying its GeForce products, and wins from its cloud-based GRID GPU offerings.

In case you're not familiar, NVIDIA GRID affords graphics-hungry users the ability to leverage NVIDIA's world-class GPU acceleration over their networks -- something anyone who's tried to run any graphics-intensive program can appreciate.

NVIDIA GRID is a groundbreaking cloud-based graphics solution. Image source: NVIDIA.

Here's where Amazon comes in
On Wednesday afternoon, Amazon.com officially took the wraps off Amazon AppSteam, which it describes as a "low-latency service that lets you stream resource intensive applications and games from the cloud" -- something the company notes is otherwise impossible because of existing "GPU, CPU, memory, or physical storage constraints of local devices."

Sound familiar? It should, because only two days before NVIDIA's earnings conference call, both companies lauded a newly deployed instance of Amazon's Elastic Compute Cloud, which is backed by -- you guessed it -- a NVIDIA GRID GPU instance with 1,536 parallel processing cores.

The AppStream service, then, is a logical extension of Amazon's newly acquired graphics computing power. If you're still having trouble visualizing what Amazon AppStream is all about, here's a freshly released video from the Web giant:

Source: Amazon.com

Of course, while Amazon AppStream could undoubtedly change the way applications are developed for millions upon millions of connected mobile devices, it also serves as arguably the first massive validation of NVIDIA's cloud-based GRID technology.

After all, given all the attention surrounding delays in the commercial rollout of NVIDIA's Tegra 4 processor this year, recent news concerning GRID has been comparatively sparse.

Sure, back in March, NVIDIA not only boasted that Citrix, Microsoft, and VMware were already offering their own respective GRID-powered software, but it also announced its rack-mounted GRID Visual Computing Appliance to target small and medium-sized businesses. Then, in May, GRID grew a bit larger when the folks at Citrix also incorporated it into XenDesktop 7. Finally, less than two weeks ago, GRID even won a place powering the Playcast cloud-gaming service from France's Bouygeus Telecom, which is now being offered to an impressive 1.5 million subscribers.

However, none of those wins carry the same clout as having the formidable, fast-growing Amazon Web Services in NVIDIA's corner. Remember, based on Amazon's most recent earnings results, sales from its Web Services division are on track to hit the $1 billion mark in the fourth quarter alone, which would bring AWS' total 2013 revenue to an estimated $3.2 billion.

Of course, that doesn't all translate to NVIDIA's bottom line. But even if we ignore NVIDIA's significant opportunities in other markets, merely winning Amazon's approval should go a long way toward convincing the world of the viability of its long-term, cloud-based vision.

Got iPad?
The new iPad Mini Retina might be hard to come by this quarter, given all the reports of supply constraints. Well, we're going to be sure to get a few -- and give them away! That's right: For the first time ever, The Motley Fool is hosting a contest where you can win a free iPad Mini Retina. All you have to do is tell us why you love The Motley Fool by clicking here! We'll pick the three most Foolish submissions to receive a free iPad Mini with Retina display.

See full terms and conditions by clicking here. 

The Real Scoop on Obama Care

Steve Forbes shares what he thinks is the real impact of Obama Care, as well as its impact going forward.

SPEAKER 1:  Thanks for joining us.  My guest today is Steve Forbes.  Hi Steve, and thanks for being with us.

STEVE:  Thank you.

SPEAKER 1:  Now you’ve written a lot recently about ObamaCare and no one seems to know what’s going on with ObamaCare.  I’ve made a lot of phone calls to different news organizations, health organizations, just trying to get some more information.  All I have heard is that it’s due to start enrollment in October and will actually start in January.  Now, since it’s the government I figure maybe that’s January of 2019.  [LAUGHTER]  What do you think?

STEVE:  I think you’re going to see a new nickname, ObamitableCare, and precisely because nobody knows what’s out there which is why they postponed these things, for a mandate 2015, caps on what you pay out-of-pocket, 2015.  They don’t have the lawful right to do it but, hey, why let the law get in the way?

SPEAKER 1: That’s right.

STEVE:  So you’re going to see more and more of that, so it’s going to get off to a pretty messy start.  We chatted earlier about how this is going to lead to higher premiums for a lot of people.  Some will see lower ones, but most of them will get a little shock, even more in the less freedom that they have.  We’re already seeing the impact on job creation.  Yes, jobs are being created; but most of them are temporary, part-time work because of the uncertainties and the mammoth increases coming from ObamaCare.  This thing is a real dampener on the economy, and I think democrats kind of wish they would have never done that thing.

SPEAKER 1:  Exactly.  Well, is there a latest estimate on how much we think it’s going to cost?

STEVE:  No, pick a number.

SPEAKER 1:  [LAUGHTER] And then increase it, right, by about 25%.

STEVE:  Nobody knows.  The idea you can project these things for six or 10 years down the road, impossible.  What is going to be ominous is not just dollars; it’s going to be the lack of choice in care and the uncertainty about access to care.  That’s one thing they used to say in the old Soviet Union, the food is free but you can’t get any.

SPEAKER 1:  That’s right; and you really wouldn’t want it if you got it, right?  Let’s turn this toward the investment angle.  Since we really don’t know what ObamaCare is really going to end up looking like, do you have any kind of conception of what industries within the healthcare sector might actually benefit from this?  Would that really happen, will anybody benefit?

STEVE:  Well the only ones who are going to get business and it’s going to be a poison chalice are the big hospital chains; but they’re going to find that this thing is very much of a double-edge sword.

SPEAKER 1: Yes.

STEVE:  I think, though, in terms of healthcare itself, the collapse of ObamaCare, they’re going to have to change it more and more.  It is going to set the stage for real free enterprise in ObamaCare, so medical device makers even though they’re getting slammed now are going to have a great future.  That’s going to be hugely important.

SPEAKER 1:  Yes.

STEVE:  You’re going to see real change in how we do things  in this country.  You’re going to see changes, too, in terms of consumer choice and having more choices of clinics and the like.  What looks like a hopeless liability is going to become a huge growth industry because healthcare is personal.

SPEAKER 1: It is personal; but how is that going to translate down to the individual.  I mean once this crisis of ObamaCare is over with.  Are people actually going to be able to afford insurance do you think? 

STEVE:  I think what you’re going to see is, for example, one of the things Republicans will pass when they get control of both houses is nationwide shopping for health insurance so you have hundreds of companies competing for your business.  That’s going to give you more choice, lower cost.  What you’re going to start to see through that and through other changes is that we get the kind of productivity in healthcare that we do in the rest of the economy.  You take a memory device, an iPhone and iPod costs about what, $25, $50; that kind of memory would cost you $10,000 a dozen years ago.  There are huge changes coming.  While we’re going to have a mess now – so try to stay healthy now ---

SPEAKER 1: [LAUGHTER] That’s right.

STEVE:  It’s going to mean more care at more affordable cost.

SPEAKER 1:  Wonderful.  Positive outcome in the long term.  Thanks, Steve. 

STEVE:  Thank you.

SPEAKER 1:  And thank you for joining us at the moneyshow.com video network.

Dark City - Portrait Of An Urban Mercenary As A Young Man

Everything I know about living off the grid, I've learned from F. Paul Wilson might be just a bit of an exaggeration. Still, I was just a bit disappointed that there were no new tax tips from Repairman Jack in Dark City.  One of the other characters had some good tax advice, if your life takes a certain path, but I'll give you some background first.

You Don't Know Jack?

Repairman Jack is sometimes referred to as "an urban mercenary".  He is a little like Zorro or the Lone Ranger saving the innocent and outwitting the bad guys.  "Repairman" is a metaphor that Jack reluctantly embraced.  What he fixes are situations where basically decent people need help, but cannot go to the authorities.  Suppose, for example, someone steals an historic sword from you.  Jack might help you recover it.  The authorities, on the other hand, are under the impression that it really belongs in a museum.  Jack tries to keep a very low profile.  When the fix is complete he does not want someone to say "Who was that masked man ?".  He would prefer "WTF?" The other difference is that Jack charges for his services – handsomely.

Jack lives in contemporary Manhattan.  If you need his services, you will have to luck into a referral.  The other thing you need to know about Jack is that he is a critical part in a much larger story, which is referred to as The Secret History of The World.  Most of the events of history for the last several thousand years are the result of a struggle that many people have intimations of, but few have the faintest idea of its true nature.  Our world is a very small part in a great struggle. It is not the eternal struggle between good and evil.  It is the very long struggle between not so bad and incredibly awful.  Jack has a special role to play in the struggle, but he is being dragged kicking and screaming into it.  His preference would be to just take care of himself and the few people he cares about.  It is really annoying to him that in order to do that he might have to save the world.

Those Cannons In Hamlet

Google Rolls Out a Slew of Features to Help Google Play Developers

During Google  (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) I/O this week, the search giant introduced new features to improve Google Play development, analytics, and global reach. 

Support for beta testing and staged rollouts were two of them. With both tools, Android developers can now receive feedback on their new app or app updates before releasing a full version. When beta testing, developers can choose who gets to try these versions by adding Google Groups and Google+ communities. In turn, when users give feedback, all responses will be in private. Once the app is more finished, developers can roll out the app to however many of their users they'd like. 

Other announcements include a public page for highlighting tablet-specific apps, translation services, monetization tools, and analytics.

Collaborating with its internationalization team, the Google Play Developer Console will let developers purchase professional translations of their apps from independent providers. 

Google now lets test accounts make in-app purchases. The transactions won't actually be charged; however, the monetization feature should help the development process. 

Inside the Developer Console, developers can see their apps' daily revenue and summary figures. They can also filter data by country and break metrics down by campaign. Google Analytics will also be integrated to show Google Play engagement.

At the start of Google I/O, Google made five product announcements affecting maps, social media, and more.

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Dovish Fed Pushes Dow Up 288 Points, S&P 500 Gains Most Since 2013

A little bit of Fed dovishness goes a long way for stocks.

Associated Press

The S&P 500 gained gained 2% to 2,012.89, its best day since Oct. 2013, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.7% to 17,356.87, its best day since Dec. 2013. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.1% to 4,644.31 and the small-company Russell 2000 finished up 3.1% at 1,174.78.

The big news, of course, was the Federal Reserve’s policy statement, which made one change that may or may not be a big deal by saying it would replace “considerable time” with “patient,” though it means the same thing as far as when rate hikes will begin. Mizuho’s Steven Ricchiuto explains:

The makers of policy coalesced around a more dovish policy statement than the markets and our own assessment of policy thought they would agree to. Specifically, everyone was expecting the Committee to drop the considerable period language. They did to some extent by substituting the word patient in the post-meeting statement. However, the very next line of the statement qualifies the change by saying it is fully consistent with the previous considerable period language. The so called "Dot Plots" also included a somewhat lower median year end 2015 Fed Funds rate, at 1.203% from 1.272%. Moreover, two of the three dissenters from the post-meeting statement, Plosser and Fisher, were more hawkish while Kocherlakota was more dovish. The composition of the voting Committee will be more dovish in 2015 and yet hawks will still be heard though the SEP. We see these developments as supportive of our call that the first rate hike will be in 2016 not 2015, especially after this year's inflation developments.

Aberdeen Asset Management’s Paul Atkinson says the Fed is in a “fortunate position:”

The Fed’s statement this month shows there’s faith that the economy is on the road to recovery. It hasn’t yet bounced back to where it was. That much is clear. But the Fed has noted an improving employment picture and the confidence that creates also boosts corporate investment. That’s all good news. What continues to restrain policy is muted recovery in the housing market and lower energy prices. This means the Fed is in the fortunate position of enabling the economy to gather steam without the shadow of immediately rising rates. In our opinion, that has to be positive for equity investors.

And so it is, at least for today.

Emerson Electric Earnings: Why the Company Remains a Dividend Favorite

Emerson Electric's (NYSE: EMR  ) fourth-quarter results did two things that will interest investors. First, they gave a good reading on trends in the global economy -- something all investors should be watching. Second, they confirmed just why the company remains a dividend favorite. Putting these things together, is the stock worth buying?

Emerson Electric: Performing well amid some global challenges
Earlier in the year, Fools saw how buying stock in Emerson Electric was largely a play on economic trends in the global economy. With this in mind, it's a good idea to track how its geographic performance fared relative to management's expectations at the start of the year.

Here is a look at full-year underlying sales (excluding acquisitions and divestitures) versus what was planned in early 2014:

 Segment Plan    Actual 

USA	3%-5%	4%
Europe	0%-2%	1%
China	6%-8%	7%
Other Asia	6%-8%	1%
Latin America	6%-8%	2%
Middle East & Africa	8%-10%	(1%)
Underlying	3%-5%	3%

Source: Emerson Electric presentations.

With underlying sales at the bottom end of its projected range for the full year, it's clear that its end markets didn't work out as planned. Of course, Emerson Electric isn't alone in seeing significant changes occur in the mix of global growth. Indeed, fellow industrial bellwether 3M also reported a similar story of the U.S. strengthening, with certain emerging markets (particularly Latin America) weakening notably.

It's problematic in 3M's case, because the company is actively investing in emerging-market growth. It also creates difficulty for Emerson Electric, because infrastructural spending decisions made in emerging markets will affect growth in its two most important segments, namely process management and industrial automation.

Moreover, Emerson Electric's geographic trends also confirm what the International Monetary Fund data suggests, as addressed in my recent 3M article. In other words, Europe's economy is slowing, China remains on track, and North America is doing better. A look across segmental sales for Emerson Electric in the fourth quarter illustrates these trends: China faced a challenging comparison in the process management segment, which is why its numbers are superficially bad.

Sales Growth %  Process Management   Industrial Automation  Network Power  Climate Technologies  Commercial & Residential Solutions 

North America	13%	12%	1%	7%	7%
China	(3%)	7%	(2%)	7%	(11%)
Europe	Flat	(2%)	7%	(3%)	(2%)

Source: Emerson Electric presentations.

However, the good news is that management forecast overall underlying sales growth of 4%-5% for 2015 -- a reasonably bullish figure. Not only is it ahead of this year's figure of 3%, but it's also ahead of the 3%-4% that management is forecasting for "global gross fixed investment."

As the first table above indicates, this will only be achieved if global growth is favorable -- something far from certain in the current environment. 

Emerson Electric: Still a dividend favorite
I suspect many readers follow the company because it's a so-called Dividend Aristocrat -- a company that has increased its dividends for at least 25 years (58 years, in this case). Interested readers can access an in-depth article on Emerson Electric's dividend potential here.

By my calculations, the company recorded a return on equity (net income divided by shareholder equity) of more than 21.5%. For the reasons outlined in the article linked above, this indicates the company has the potential to grow its dividend by roughly 11.6% in future.

Given that its current yield is 2.7%, and the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield is only 2.4% at present, the stock remains an attractive choice for income-seeking investors. Put another way, if Emerson Electric increases its dividend at the rate suggested above, it will be paying an additional 8% of its current price in 10 years.

The Foolish takeaway
All told, a company like Emerson Electric is never really going to see its prospects divorce themselves from global growth. The outlook today is mixed, to say the least, with geopolitical tensions slowing the kind of large-scale infrastructural spending that helps Emerson Electric.

If China sneezes, then the company will certainly feel the effects in its emerging-market sales. However, a strengthening North American market was enough to keep its underlying sales within its target range in its 2014 fiscal year, and investors will hope for more of the same in 2015. The stock remains attractive for dividend hunters.

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An Interesting Reason Why Facebook May Grow

This article is a bit forward thinking, however there could possibly be some positive perspective to the late news about Facebook (FB), and I'll attempt to clarify why I suspect as much.

Around a few years back in a city that I was incidentally living in, I used to stroll to the train station and pass a house where, in a lounge, there were around six children sitting together with laptops consistently. There was a monster white barricade out of sight, and it was clear that the parlor space they were working out of had been changed over to a semi-office. One day, without notice and inquisitive in the matter of what was going on, I haphazardly strolled in.

In the wake of asking, they let me know that they were an extremely youthful new business that was chipping away at an iphone application together. I acquainted myself with the "manager" and let him know that I had a ton of VC associations and that I'd be intrigued to hear his story. In this way, he provided for me a pitch on the organization's application. The sole reason for the application? To have the capacity to rearrange cash among you and your companions effectively. He pitched me on a circumstance where four companions go to a restaurant and don't have a craving for divvying up a charge that one fellow pays. They then utilize their records to do the math and exchange the fitting stores to each other with one or two snappy clicks, and everybody (counting the restaurant) spares time.

Granted, organizations like Paypal have taken a gander at online cash exchange to enterprises and shops; however this was the first occasion when I had known about something being utilized on exclusively a neighborhood stage, individual to individual. Think about all the ways you exchange bits of cash to individuals: folks giving children recompenses, tipping a concierge in the city, paying for a companion's espresso. These aren't Paypal-esque in size, yet haven't been investigated inside and out yet by application producers.

Square 1 Financial (SQBK) and Bitcoin (BTCC) have sort of touched on the accommodations of having a versatile wallet, and it's without a doubt a corner that I think is still in the early phases of its reception bend. Hence, when I discovered that Facebook was concentrating on it, I loved the thought.

It was accounted for this last quarter:

Facebook is near accepting endorsement from Ireland's national bank to turn into an "e-cash" organization that would empower clients to store cash on the informal community and use it to pay and trade cash with different parts, the FT reports.

The move would help Facebook support its vicinity in developing markets, as it would give settlement benefits in which transient specialists send cash home to their families.

Facebook has additionally examined conceivable organizations with Transferwise, Moni Technologies and Azimo, new companies that empower online cash exchange administrations.

Facebook has a leg up to bounce into this corner, too, for a few reasons.

To begin with, Facebook is now a semi-dependable name. We know they're a billion-dollar organization and that they are created so the security issue is much less with shoppers than it would be with a fresh-out-of-the-box new application.

Second, Facebook as of now has its client base. It doesn't have to go out and market the application, on the grounds that individuals as of now have it.

Third, the anticipated development in the worldwide versatile wallet business sector is gigantic. It's precisely the sort of development an organization like Facebook needs to get out before. Zuckerberg may be rich, and he may be getting a bit more seasoned; however in any case it appears that he keeps on knowing what's "inclining."

Also, I would be careful about organizations like Western Union (WU) who have some expertise in individual-to-individual cash exchange, if it not begin to adjust to the path in which this industry could keep on shaing.

In spite of the fact that surely not for a fleeting bet on Facebook, I accept this specialty could doubtlessly help Facebook proceed with its forceful long haul development and that the organization is on steady balance as a venture for the long haul. I'll be viewing nearly to see what creates with Facebook and the portable wallet market.

Saturday, December 20, 2014 Mary Poppins won't work for minimum wage NEW YORK (CNNMoney) You'd think magical powers would entitle Mary Poppins to more than $7.25 an hour. But in a parody from Funny or Die, the Disney character (played by Kristin Bell) is quitting her job because that's all the Banks family will pay her. She struggles to make ends meet while making $7.25, the federal minimum wage, pleading for a $3 raise. "In every job that must be done, you must be paid in more than fun," she sings, a play on an original Mary Poppins song. Plenty of people in the real world agree. 71% of people surveyed by CNNMoney favor an unspecified hike in the federal minimum wage. Meanwhile, 36% said it should be increased to $10.10 an hour, which is what Senate Democrats and President Obama have proposed. A number of states and major cities aren't waiting for Congress to act and are passing minimum wage increases on their own. This year, five states and Washington D.C. passed legislation to gradually increase their wages to $10.10 or higher; other states passed smaller increases. In June, the Seattle city council approved an eventual increase to $15 an hour, making it the nation's highest so far. But critics contend that a higher minimum wage will hurt jobs and consumers. A report released by the Congressional Budget Office in April said that a federal hike to $10.10 would lift 900,000 people out of poverty, but also cut 500,000 jobs. Friday, December 19, 2014 T-Mobile Paying at Least $90 Million for Unwanted Services Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images WASHINGTON -- T-Mobile US (TMUS) will pay at least $90 million, mostly in refunds, for billing customers for cellphone text services they didn't order, under a settlement with federal regulators. The Federal Trade Commission announced the agreement Friday with T-Mobile over billing for unauthorized charges, a practice known as "cramming." T-Mobile, the fourth-largest U.S. cellphone company, is paying at least $67.5 million in refunds to affected customers plus $18 million in fines to the 50 states and the District of Columbia, and $4.5 million in fines to the Federal Communications Commission. The FTC sued T-Mobile in July, accusing it of billing customers for subscriptions to text services like $9.99-a-month horoscopes, ringtones, "flirting tips" or celebrity gossip updates that they didn't want or authorize. We learned during this case that T-Mobile was in bed with the crammers. T-Mobile collected 35 percent to 40 percent of the charges, even after being alerted by customers that they were bogus, the FTC alleges. That earned the company hundreds of millions of dollars, the agency said. "We learned during this case that T-Mobile was in bed with the crammers," said Travis LeBlanc, head of the FTC's enforcement bureau. He was referring to the third-party companies that put charges on phone bills for text services. Many consumers aren't aware that third-party companies can do that, the regulators say. 'Not a Maximum' Officials told reporters on a conference call that the $90 million was a floor, not a maximum, for the amount that T-Mobile could end up paying. "It could be well north of $100 million," said Bill Sorrell, the attorney general of Vermont. A T-Mobile spokeswoman said the company had no immediate comment on the settlement. T-Mobile began a refund program in July and has said it has notified current and former customers. The company didn't provide an estimate of how much it has paid in refunds to date. T-Mobile US, based in Bellevue, Washington, is controlled by Germany's Deutsche Telekom. It's the No. 4 U.S. cellphone carrier after Verizon Wireless (VZ), AT&T Mobility (T) and Sprint (S). The settlement must be approved by a federal court in Seattle, where the FTC filed its lawsuit. Under the settlement, T-Mobile must provide full refunds to all its customers affected by the "cramming," and the amount it pays in refunds and fines must reach at least $90 million. If the payout doesn't reach that amount, the difference between what T-Mobile pays and $90 million will go to the FTC for additional relief to consumers, consumer education or other uses. Explicit Consent Required T-Mobile also must contact all of its affected customers, both current and former, to tell them about the refund program and how they can make a claim. That must be done in a "clear and conspicuous way," the FTC said. Going forward, T-Mobile must get customers' explicit consent before putting third-party charges on their bills. The company must clearly indicate any third-party charges on the bills. The settlement with T-Mobile came two days after another federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, sued rival Sprint for alleged cellphone "cramming." The CFPB is seeking an unspecified money penalty against Sprint. The T-Mobile agreement is the second-largest settlement for the government over mobile cramming. In October, AT&T Mobility agreed to a $105 million settlement with the FTC. Officials said that with the two settlements, about half of all U.S. cellphone users now will be protected from abusive third-party charges. "Mobile cramming is an issue that has affected millions of American consumers, and I'm pleased that this settlement will put money back in the hands of affected T-Mobile customers," FTC Chair Edith Ramirez said in a statement Friday. "Consumers should be able to trust that their mobile phone bills reflect the charges they authorized and nothing more." Copyright 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. More from The Associated Press •Staples: Customer Data Exposed in Security Breach •Market Wrap: U.S. Stocks Inch Higher After Big 2-Day Rally •Holiday Shopping Season Sales Come Down to the Wire Dow Gains 420 Points as Fed Feeds Investor Frenzy At moments like these, the best I can do is pull out my best Keanu Reeves impersonation: Whoah. Associated Press The promise of an easy Fed sure has investors excited. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 421.28 points, or 2.4%, to 17.778.15 today, while the S&P 500 rose 2.4% to 4,748.40. Every stock in the Dow finished up today, with Microsoft (MSFT) and International Business Machines (IBM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) leading the way. Perhaps more frightening: By my count, just 21 S&P 500 stocks finished in the red today, as Oracle (ORCL) and First Solar (FSLR) led the benchmark higher. It’s not just today’s gains, though they are impressive. Consider the two days the S&P 500 just had: It gained 4.5%, with the market up at least 2% on both days. The latter hasn’t happened since April 8, 2002–back when I was a 29-year old day trader not having to compete with those high-frequency guys. It almost enough to makes me nostalgic. Almost. Thursday, December 18, 2014 Why Miller Energy Resources (MILL) Stock Is Up Today NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Miller Energy Resources (MILL) was gaining 15.7% to $6.33 Monday after SunTrust upgraded the stock to "buy" from "neutral." The analyst firm raised its price target for Miller Energy to $10 from $8. SunTrust analyst Neal Dingmann sees Miller Energy's production growing by about 180% this year, and about 60% next year due to acquisitions and wells in Cook Inlet and North Slope. Must read: Warren Buffett's 25 Favorite Stocks STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12 months. Learn more. TheStreet Ratings team rates MILLER ENERGY RESOURCES INC as a Sell with a ratings score of D+. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation: "We rate MILLER ENERGY RESOURCES INC (MILL) a SELL. This is driven by several weaknesses, which we believe should have a greater impact than any strengths, and could make it more difficult for investors to achieve positive results compared to most of the stocks we cover. The company's weaknesses can be seen in multiple areas, such as its feeble growth in its earnings per share and disappointing return on equity." Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows: MILLER ENERGY RESOURCES INC's earnings per share declined by 7.1% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. Earnings per share have declined over the last year. We anticipate that this should continue in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, MILLER ENERGY RESOURCES INC reported poor results of -$0.60 versus -$0.47 in the prior year. For the next year, the market is expecting a contraction of 1.7% in earnings (-$0.61 versus -$0.60). The company's current return on equity has slightly decreased from the same quarter one year prior. This implies a minor weakness in the organization. Compared to other companies in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry and the overall market, MILLER ENERGY RESOURCES INC's return on equity significantly trails that of both the industry average and the S&P 500. MILL's debt-to-equity ratio is very low at 0.20 and is currently below that of the industry average, implying that there has been very successful management of debt levels. Despite the fact that MILL's debt-to-equity ratio is low, the quick ratio, which is currently 0.63, displays a potential problem in covering short-term cash needs. The gross profit margin for MILLER ENERGY RESOURCES INC is rather high; currently it is at 63.45%. It has increased significantly from the same period last year. Regardless of the strong results of the gross profit margin, the net profit margin of -18.65% is in-line with the industry average. Net operating cash flow has significantly increased by 2001.19% to $11.10 million when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, MILLER ENERGY RESOURCES INC has also vastly surpassed the industry average cash flow growth rate of 17.57%. You can view the full analysis from the report here: MILL Ratings Report STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12 months. Learn more. Wednesday, November 12, 2014 Walmart to Make Black Friday a 5-Day Event Robyn Beck, AFP/Getty ImagesShoppers consider televisions for sale at the Walmart in Los Angeles on Black Friday last year. | Thanksgiving and Black Friday just weren't enough. With a string of retailers pushing their sales ever earlier on Thanksgiving day, Walmart's shifting gears this year by extending its Black Friday discounts through the entire weekend. Still, that's not to say the retailer will miss out on the Thanksgiving buzz. Walmart (WMT) will once again kick off its Black Friday deals at 6 p.m. Thursday, in line with competitors such as Target (TGT) and Sears (SHLD), and one hour later than Best Buy (BBY), Toys R Us and J.C. Penney (JCP). "Black Friday is no longer about waking up at the crack of dawn to stand in long lines," said Duncan Mac Naughton, chief merchandising officer at Walmart U.S. "It's become a family shopping tradition where everyone shops at some point throughout the weekend." On Thursday, Walmart will kick off its sales event with discounts across a number of categories, including toys, DVD and Blu-ray movies, and kitchen appliances. Sample deals from this group include an Elsa doll from "Frozen," which will sell for $28.88 and 800 DVD and Blu-ray movie titles that will sell for between $1.96 and $9.96. Two hours later, it will offer markdowns across electronics such as a Beats by Dr. Dre portable speakers, for $99.95, or a $100 savings. Walmart will then give shoppers 30 percent off on entire categories from 6 a.m. to noon Friday through Sunday, and hold additional sales on categories such as cellphones and diamonds also on those days. The retailer will also hold online sales throughout the weekend, kicking off at midnight Thursday, and will offer free shipping on its top 100 gifts. Target last month announced that it will offer free shipping on all online purchases through Dec. 20. A number of retailers, including Walmart, Amazon.com (AMZN) and Target, have already kicked off Black Friday sales in some capacity. Like Walmart, Target will also extend certain Black Friday deals through Saturday. "You've seen a number of retailers pull forward their events ... and you're seeing a lot of activity, which tells me [this holiday is] going to be very competitive," Mac Naughton said. Walmart is trying to stabilize its U.S. business, which has posted a string of disappointing same-store sales figures. Last holiday, its same-store sales fell 0.4 percent. For 2014, Walmart spokeswoman Deisha Barnett said the retailer has increased its Black Friday inventory in every category. Walmart will report its third-quarter earnings Thursday. Thursday, November 6, 2014 Zynga Inc (ZNGA) Earnings Report: Is Time Running Out? GLUU & KING The Q3 2014 earnings report for small cap social media gaming stock Zynga Inc (NASDAQ: ZNGA), a potential peer of mobile gaming stock Glu Mobile Inc (NASDAQ: GLUU) and interactive entertainment stock King Digital Entertainment PLC (NYSE: KING), is scheduled for after the market closes on Thursday (November 6th). Aside from the Zynga Inc earnings report, it should be said that Glu Mobile Inc reported Q3 2014 earnings on October 29th (shares fell on profit expectations and missed revenue forecasts) while King Digital Entertainment PLC will also report Q3 2014 earnings after the market closes on Thursday. However, Zynga Inc has long struggled and has worked hard to come out from under the shadow of Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) but Wall Street and investor patience may be running out. What Should You Watch Out for With the Zynga Inc Earnings Report? First, here is a quick recap of Zynga Inc's recent earnings history along with EPS estimate trends from the Yahoo! Finance analyst estimates page: Earnings HistorySep 13Dec 13Mar 14Jun 14 EPS Est -0.04 -0.04 -0.01 0.00 EPS Actual -0.02 -0.03 -0.01 0.00 Difference 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 Surprise % 50.00% 25.00% 0.00% N/A EPS TrendsCurrent Qtr. Sep 14Next Qtr. Dec 14Current Year Dec 14Next Year Dec 15 Current Estimate -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.04 7 Days Ago -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.04 30 Days Ago -0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.04 60 Days Ago -0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.04 90 Days Ago 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.06   Back in early August, Zynga Inc reported a 34% year over year revenue decrease (plus a decrease of 9% from Q1 2014) to $153 million as online game revenue fell 36% (plus a decrease of 1% from Q1 2014) to $131 million and advertising and other revenue fell 19% (plus a decrease of 38% from Q1 2014) to $22 million. FarmVille 2 and Zynga Poker accounted for 32% and 24% of online game revenue, respectively, for the second quarter of 2014 verses to 30% and 24%, respectively, for the first quarter of 2014 but as of June 30, 2014, cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were approximately $1.15 billion verses $1.14 billion as of March 31, 2014. The net loss was $63 million for the second quarter of 2014 verses a net loss of $16 million for the second quarter of 2013 and compared to net loss of $61 million for the first quarter of 2014. The CEO commented: "We continue to make significant investments in the highest potential areas of our future pipeline. By Q4 of this year, approximately half of our game-related research and development will be allocated to new and recently launched games -- this represents about a 45% increase year over year. We currently have capabilities and brands in content genres with Farm, Words, Casino, Racing and People and we are further diversifying our product portfolio in order to reach more consumers and widen our demographic across more entertainment genres." And: "Today we are announcing that we are expanding our game development efforts in two new additional categories: Sports and Runner. Our Sports effort introduces a new franchise brand for us -- Zynga Sports 365 -- and with it, new mobile games in football with the NFL and NFL Players Inc. and in golf with one of the most iconic athletes in the world, Tiger Woods. Our Runner expansion features a new partnership with Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment to bring to life their beloved Looney Tunes brand for mobile consumers. We are pleased to launch the geo-lock for our new football game -- NFL Showdown -- today and look forward to making it, along with our Tiger Woods golf game and Looney Tunes runner game available globally to fans around the world." However, Zynga Inc has delayed the launch of new versions of several titles, including "Zynga Poker" and "Words with Friends" as well as mobile games from Natural Motion, a studio it bought in January for $527 million. Hence, analysts and investors alike were not enthused with the former slashing price targets with Macquarie's Benjamin Schachter cutting his target 25% to $3, saying: "So far, Zynga has failed to deliver." And given recently delayed products, he commented "investors will have to wait at least another quarter to find out if Zynga can grow profitably." What do the Zynga Inc Charts Say? The latest technical chart for small cap Zynga Inc shows shares have steadily trended downward since a spring time jump: A long term performance chart shows that investors and traders alike who have a stomach for risk have come out as big winners with Glu Mobile Inc and losers if they were in Zynga Inc and King Digital Entertainment PLC: A technical chart for Glu Mobile Inc shows volatility above a $3.80 level floor while King Digital Entertainment PLC did have a summer time surge before sinking back into a downtrend: What Should Be Your Next Move? As investor and Wall Street patience grows thin, small cap Zynga Inc will need to demonstrate some sort of progress in the coming earnings report. Otherwise, the CEO's head could be the first thing on the chopping block after earnings. Wednesday, November 5, 2014 I bought pot legally and it was weird   Washington pot shops open for business NEW YORK (CNNMoney) I've never felt so anxious doing something legal. In fact, I was so nervous that I ended up spending way too much money and bought a lot more weed than I wanted. Like most Americans, I've never bought legal marijuana before, so I didn't know what to expect when I tried it a few weeks ago during a visit to Washington state. It wasn't like going to a liquor store, where aisles are stocked with drinks you've seen advertised millions of times. And it was nothing like a bar, despite the guy at the door checking IDs. It must be how a non-coffee drinker feels walking into a Starbucks (SBUX). Except there wasn't a menu telling customers what's for sale at the shop I visited in Seattle, called Cannabis City. That's one reason why I was so flustered. A friend and I waited on line outside the store for about 15 minutes before we were told to step inside to the counter on the right. We were slightly confused about what this "counter on the right" was all about. But something about having a bouncer at the entrance who allows only a handful of people in at a time made us think we shouldn't mill about. We made a beeline to the right. Interactive: Where pot is legal Inside looked kind of like a jewelry store, with merchandise inside glass cases. There was one salesman standing behind our counter. He appeared to be assigned to us, sort of like a bank teller. He said hello. Then there was awkward silence. I scanned the case in front of me, there were only a few different types of weed -- without any kind of description. Was this all they had? Were they supposed to give you different kinds of highs? Was I supposed to know? Could I ask? After what seemed like an eternity, I said I wanted to buy an eighth -- because I heard that's what people usually ask for. The sales associate asked how much I smoke. I said "not a lot," so he suggested the two strains with lower levels of THC: Green Crack and Sage. I said I'd take both. He rang me up. This little adventure was going to cost me $88. Already embarrassed about how this whole process had gone down, I laid down my Amex -- forgetting that dispensaries don't accept credit cards. Not a smooth move. Recreational pot is legal in Washington and Colorado and now, thanks to successful ballot initiatives this week in Washington D.C., Alaska and Orego! n, it will be soon be legal in those states too. But it remains illegal on the federal level, so credit card companies and banks, which are regulated by the feds, hesitate to work with pot businesses. At Cannabis City, it's cash only, or you can use the ATM. So the store charged my debit card $90 and gave me the $2 back in cash for the four grams (a little more than an eighth of an ounce) of pot. But they did give me two free lighters. Score! Monday, November 3, 2014 Why You Shouldn’t Sell AAPL Just Yet Well… What can I say about Apple that hasn't been said? Everyday there are between 3-5 "new" and lengthy articles of the company. Not to mention all the news articles that flood the internet. For me, Apple is an investment where I do very little to follow it. Of all the companies I own, Apple is last on my list of stocks to review. And when I do, it's mostly just the numbers. A giant the size of Apple can't change in a quarter or even a year. Although the company is a fast and dynamic, it takes well over a year before a decision made by Tim Cook makes it out to the market. When I first bought Apple in late 2012, the only thing I was concerned about was valuation. My initial reasons for investing in Apple were simple and can still be summed up in the same 4 points. Downside protection: balance sheet protects the business from going bankrupt. If I can find a net net with a dying business with AAPL's balance sheet metrics, I would be all over it. So why wouldn't I buy AAPL? Better than the S&P: A bet that AAPL will perform better than the market over a couple of years. Better than cash: I started the year with about 50% in cash. Cash makes up 1/3 of AAPL's market cap. In other words, if AAPL was a hedge fund, I transferred my US dollars into AAPL dollars for AAPL to manage. With their management, pricing power and business strength, they are able to invest money in ways I cannot dream of. Priced for doom: Current valuations predict AAPL has zero growth remaining. (This has improved today) For the most part, Apple still fits the same mold. The expectations have increased but continue reading and you'll see that it's still undervalued. Before the split, I said that it wasn't worth $460 ($65 post split). And it certainly wasn't worth $530 ($75 post split). It's taken at least 2 years for the market to get over its pessimism. The only area that I have an advantage with Apple is knowing when to buy and sell. i.e. valuation. So using the Fundamental OSV Analyzer, I'll take you through how I go about determining whether Apple is cheap or not using the various valuation models in the analyzer. The checks will be done using reverse valuation methods which is one of my favorite ways to gauge the value level of a stock. Reverse DCF of AAPL To do a reverse DCF, enter the latest numbers into the equation to figure out the growth rate. Normally, you do a DCF by entering the growth rate to get the intrinsic value. But do the opposite by fiddling around with the growth to make the intrinsic value and current price match. That's when you know you've hit the market expected growth rate. With the current share price at $108, using 9% discount rate and the latest FCF figure of $49.9b, the expected growth rate comes out to 5%. From the looks of it, the market still hasn't caught on to the value because 5% growth is much to low. Reverse DCF of AAPL Shows 5% Growth Expectations | Enlarge Reverse EPS Model Using Graham's Formula Let's take another look from an earnings angle instead of cash flow. Here's the reverse EPS Ben Graham Model. AAPL Reverse EPS Model Using Graham's Formula | Enlarge The beauty with any valuation model is that you can use it for reverse valuations. It's not just the DCF that has a reverse method. Any model can be applied in reverse to get the market expectations. They even do this with accounting, so it's still surprising reverse valuations are not widely used for investing. A few things to note regarding the numbers in the image above. I've update the 20 year AA corporate bond rate to 3.91. If you use the OSV analyzer, you should update it occasionally. I'm using the analysts EPS estimate as I'm looking for the market expectations and the analysts are the market consensus. After fiddling around with the growth rate to get the intrinsic value to match the current price, the growth rate again comes out to 5.5%. Mighty similar to the 5% from the reverse DCF. Reverse EBIT Multiple Valuation Check Now let's move even further up the income statement by inverting the EBIT multiples to see what the market expectations are. This one is messier so hang in there instead of just glossing it over. AAPL Reverse EBIT Valuation Model | Enlarge To see what multiple the current stock is trading at, enter the latest revenue, cash and equivalents, and off balance sheet numbers. For Apple, since they have most of their cash listed under other long term assets, you'll need to break open the SEC filing to get the real number. And while you're at it, do a CTRL+F for "off balance sheet" and it will take you to additional debt that is on the books but not on the balance sheet. Then simply check various multiples to see which one causes the current price and the valuation price to match. In this case, the conservative multiple of 10x EBIT gives a number very close to the current price. When I use the current real EBIT multiple of 12 (rounded up from 11.6), the value comes out to be $124. If you look at the past 5 years at the EBIT multiple Apple has been trading at, it's insanely low when you consider the products and the potential expansion of its ecosystem. Apple Pay alone could increase the value of Apple by a couple of multiples so it's surprisingly that the current EBIT multiple of 12.5 is the highest its been in 5 years. AAPL EBIT 5 Year Trend | Enlarge Reverse Absolute PE Model This model was created by Vitaliy Katsenelson, author of Active Value Investing. The attractiveness of this model is that it focuses on an absolute method of using multiples. What I mean by that is that when you use PE multiples, it's used to compare industry competitors. But what if the market is hot and everything is trading at 25x or 30x. Relative comparisons make it seem like it's fairly valued because everything else is trading around the same levels. But with this method, since you can look at the stock independently, it makes it possible to focus on a single stock for valuation purposes without messing it up with competitors numbers. Katsenelson Reverse Absolute PE | Enlarge The Katsenelson Absolute PE model shows that the current price is equivalent to a PE of 12 with a 7% expected EPS growth rate. The current PE is 17 by the way. So again, this model is also signalling that the current price is still cheap compared to the value. Reverse Earnings Power Value The only real improvement seen with any of the models is the earnings power value method. The main point to note here is that an EPV model ignores all growth. Nada. And back in March, the EPS and the current price clearly showed that the market was expecting nothing out of Apple. This was then. Reverse Earnings Power Value (March 13, 2014) | Click to Enlarge This is now. AAPL Reverse EPV (Nov 3, 2014) | Enlarge After adjusting for the cash on hand and off balance sheet liabilities, the EPV has finally dropped below the current price. What does that mean? The market is expecting growth out of the company. What the EPV model doesn't do is tell you how much growth. So to keep it simple, use it as an indicator of cheapness. So What's It All Worth Then? Even at $108 and hitting all time highs, it's still cheap. My main assumption is that Apple will be able to grow at 10%. Here's my graphical view of Apple at this point. AAPL Investment Visualization The intrinsic value range comes out to be $125 to $150. I'm ignoring the NCAV, total net reproduction cost and EPV values as the first two are balance sheet related numbers and EPV doesn't factor in any growth. The average valuation target is then $138, but just round up to $140. That's still an upside of 30% with very realistic numbers. I'm not projecting to the moon and my numbers are based on low growth numbers to begin with. Here's a better look at the valuation targets. Click any of the buttons below to view the image. If you don't have any social media accounts, make sure you sign up with your email as the full content is always unlocked via email and you'll also get valuation templates as a bonus. AAPL Valuation as of Nov 2, 2014 Don't be fooled into thinking that Apple is going to rise 80% like it did during its glory days. But Apple still offers a great place to park your money with very little risk. Get Access to More Content Enjoy what you're reading? Get instant access to our articles via email and receive bonus investing spreadsheets. Further Reading To know more about each of the models used in this article, check out the post on 8 of the best stock valuation methods to value any stock. Disclosure Long AAPL About the author:Jae JunFounder of Old School Value (http://www.oldschoolvalue.com) dedicated to offering the most complete and detailed stock valuation and analysis spreadsheet. Investing made easy by importing 10 years of financials and 5 quarterly statements directly to excel for your analysis needs. Save time, make smarter decisions and make more money. Visit Jae Jun's Website Currently 5.00/512345 Rating: 5.0/5 (1 vote) Voters: Subscribe via Email Subscribe RSS Comments Please leave your comment: More GuruFocus Links Latest Guru Picks Value Strategies Warren Buffett Portfolio Ben Graham Net-Net Real Time Picks Buffett-Munger Screener Aggregated Portfolio Undervalued Predictable ETFs, Options Low P/S Companies Insider Trends 10-Year Financials 52-Week Lows Interactive Charts Model Portfolios DCF Calculator RSS Feed Monthly Newsletters The All-In-One Screener Portfolio Tracking Tool MORE GURUFOCUS LINKS Latest Guru Picks Value Strategies Warren Buffett Portfolio Ben Graham Net-Net Real Time Picks Buffett-Munger Screener Aggregated Portfolio Undervalued Predictable ETFs, Options Low P/S Companies Insider Trends 10-Year Financials 52-Week Lows Interactive Charts Model Portfolios DCF Calculator RSS Feed Monthly Newsletters The All-In-One Screener Portfolio Tracking Tool AAPL STOCK PRICE CHART 109.4 (1y: +45%) $(function(){var seriesOptions=[],yAxisOptions=[],name='AAPL',display='';Highcharts.setOptions({global:{useUTC:true}});var d=new Date();$current_day=d.getDay();if($current_day==5||$current_day==0||$current_day==6){day=4;}else{day=7;} seriesOptions[0]={id:name,animation:false,color:'#4572A7',lineWidth:1,name:name.toUpperCase()+' stock price',threshold:null,data:[[1383544800000,75.25],[1383631200000,75.064],[1383717600000,74.417],[1383804000000,73.213],[1383890400000,74.366],[1384149600000,74.15],[1384236000000,74.287],[1384322400000,74.376],[1384408800000,75.451],[1384495200000,74.999],[1384754400000,74.09],[1384840800000,74.221],[1384927200000,73.571],[1385013600000,74.448],[1385100000000,74.257],[1385359200000,74.82],[1385445600000,76.2],[1385532000000,77.994],[1385704800000,79.439],[1385964000000,78.747],[1386050400000,80.903],[1386136800000,80. Saturday, November 1, 2014 Glenview's Larry Robbins Talks to Bloomberg at the Ira Sohn Conference Robbins thinks that 2014 is going to be tougher sledding in the equity markets. That means that investors can't rely on a rising tide to lift all ships. Robbins discusses his favorite areas which he discussed at the Ira Sohn conference: Also check out: Larry Robbins Undervalued Stocks Larry Robbins Top Growth Companies Larry Robbins High Yield stocks, and Stocks that Larry Robbins keeps buyingAbout the author:Canadian Valuehttp://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/ Currently 0.00/512345 Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes) Subscribe via Email Subscribe RSS Comments Please leave your comment: More GuruFocus Links Latest Guru Picks Value Strategies Warren Buffett Portfolio Ben Graham Net-Net Real Time Picks Buffett-Munger Screener Aggregated Portfolio Undervalued Predictable ETFs, Options Low P/S Companies Insider Trends 10-Year Financials 52-Week Lows Interactive Charts Model Portfolios DCF Calculator RSS Feed Monthly Newsletters The All-In-One Screener Portfolio Tracking Tool MORE GURUFOCUS LINKS Latest Guru Picks Value Strategies Warren Buffett Portfolio Ben Graham Net-Net Real Time Picks Buffett-Munger Screener Aggregated Portfolio Undervalued Predictable ETFs, Options Low P/S Companies Insider Trends 10-Year Financials 52-Week Lows Interactive Charts Model Portfolios DCF Calculator RSS Feed Monthly Newsletters The All-In-One Screener Portfolio Tracking Tool SPY STOCK PRICE CHART 188.42 (1y: +16%) $(function(){var seriesOptions=[],yAxisOptions=[],name='SPY',display='';Highcharts.setOptions({global:{useUTC:true}});var d=new Date();$current_day=d.getDay();if($current_day==5||$current_day==0||$current_day==6){day=4;}else{day=7;} seriesOptions[0]={id:name,animation:false,color:'#4572A7',lineWidth:1,name:name.toUpperCase()+' stock price',threshold:null,data:[[1367816400000,161.78],[1367902800000,162.6],[1367989200000,163.34],[1368075600000,162.88],[1368162000000,163.41],[1368421200000,163.54],[1368507600000,165.23],[1368594000000,166.12],[1368680400000,165.34],[1368766800000,166.94],[1369026000000,166.93],[1369112400000,167.17],[1369198800000,165.93],[1369285200000,165.45],[1369371600000,165.31],[1369630800000,165.31],[1369717200000,166.3],[1369803600000,165.22],[1369890000000,165.83],[1369976400000,163.45],[1370235600000,164.35],[1370322000000,163.56],[1370408400000,161.27],[1370494800000,162.73],[1370581200000,164.8],[1370840400000,164.8],[1370926800000,163.1],[1371013200000,161.75],[1371099600000,164.21],[1371186000000,163.18],[1371358800000,163.18],[1371445200000,164.44],[1371531600000,165.74],[1371618000000,163.45],[1371704400000,159.4],[1371790800000,159.07],[1372050000000,157.06],[1372136400000,158.58],[1372222800000,160.14],[1372309200000,161.08],[1372395600000,160.42],[1372654800000,161.36],[1372741200000,161.21],[1372827600000,161.28],[1372914000000,161.28],[1373000400000,163.02],[1373259600000,163.95],[1373346000000,165.13],[1373432400000,165.19],[1373518800000,167.44],[1373605200000,167.51],[1373864400000,168.16],[1373950800000,167.53],[1374037200000,167.95],[1374123600000,168.87],[1374210000000,169.17],[1374469200000,169.5],[1374555600000,169.14],[1374642000000,168.52],[1374728400000,168.93],[1374814800000,169.11],[1375074000000,168.59],[1375160400000,168.59],[1375246800000,168.71],[1375333200000,170.66],[1375419600000,170.95],[1375678800000,170.7],[1375765200000,169.73],[1375851600000,169.18],[1375938000000,169.8],[1376024400000,169.31],[1376283600000,169.11],[1376370000000,169.61],[1376456400000,168.74],[1376542800000,166.38],[1376629200000,165.83],[1376888400000,164.77],[1376974800000,165.58],[1377061200000,164.56],[1377147600000,166.06],[1377234000000,166.62],[1377493200000,166],[1377579600000,163.33],[13776660000! 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