Saturday, December 22, 2012

Apple Exit Survey: Surprising Number Of 4S Customers Upgrading

Topeka Capital Markets surveyed 100 customers exiting New York City Apple stores with the new iPhone 5, and was surprised by the number of people upgrading even though they were already proud owners of a newish phone.

Apple (AAPL) shares are up $5.93, or 0.84%, to $704.60.

Much higher than expected upgrades from the iPhone 4S is “a bullish sign” considering “4S was launched just one year ago and many consumers are locked in two-year service agreements,” writes Topeka Capital Analyst Brian J. White.� He adds,

“Our survey found that 50% of the iPhone 5 buyers upgraded from the iPhone 4S, 11% from the iPhone 4, 3% for 3GS and 36% from non-iPhone users. The most mentions from non-iPhone users that upgraded to the iPhone 5 came from previous Nokia (NOK) and HTC (2498TW) users.”

For what it’s worth, Topeka notes 56% chose the black & slate iPhone 5 and 44% chose the white & silver.

New data shows AT&T (T) garnered 68% of total U.S. online sales of the new iPhone in the first three days of the phone’s release, according to this Comscore post.

Update: Forgot to mention that Topeka has a $1111 price target on Apple. That’s based on a price-to-earnings multiple of 22 times Topeka’s calendar 2013 pro-forma earnings per share estimate, below the mid-20 multiple of 2006-2010, White writes.

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