Thursday, March 28, 2013

3 Historic Losers That May Be on the Rebound

With all the talk about buying discounted equities on the cheap in the wake of the Japanese crisis, I though I would take a look at the truly beaten up shares in the market, the companies whose stocks have been absolutely destroyed over the past five years. The following is a list of the 25 biggest losers from the Russell 1000 over the past five years. I have to warn you beforehand, the list isn't pretty:

Ticker Short Name 5 Year Return P/E
AIG
AMERICAN INTERNA (96.59)
ETFC E*TRADE FINANCIA (93.98)
C CITIGROUP INC (89.31) 12.66
WL WILMINGTON TRUST (88.52)
ODP
OFFICE DEPOT INC (86.67) 41.50
BPOP POPULAR INC (83.49)
MBI
MBIA INC (81.51)
S SPRINT NEXTEL CO (81.32)
PHM
PULTEGROUP INC (80.40)
KBH
KB HOME (76.55)
USG USG CORP (76.51)
AMLN AMYLIN PHARM INC (76.46)
SNV SYNOVUS FINL (76.13)
RF
REGIONS FINANCIA (75.67)
AMR
AMR CORP (75.56)
MI MARSHALL &ILSLEY (75.25)
AMD
ADV MICRO DEVICE (75.17) 26.72
KEY
KEYCORP (72.99) 18.51
SLM
SLM CORP (72.34) 8.01
CETV CENTRAL EURO M-A (70.69)
LM LEGG MASON INC (70.58) 19.79
ZION ZIONS BANCORP (70.18)
SVU
SUPERVALU INC (69.59) 6.43
BSX
BOSTON SCIENTIFC (69.16) 18.17
MWW
MONSTER WORLDWID (68.72)

Wow, that's a lot of value destruction. On average, the picks were down 78% over this timeframe.

However, I'm not too concerned about the past; I'm more concerned about the future. And with that in mind, here are three stocks I think could be interesting going forward. All three trade at a discount to their peers and have assets in place that suitors could find a lot of value in.

Sprint (S) - The company has been in the news recently, especially with the recent purchase of T-Mobile by AT&T (T). The acquisition has rumors flying, suggesting competitor Verizon (VZ) will be forced to pay up for Sprint. And if the acquisition takes place anywhere near the value AT&T assigned to T-Mobile, Sprint shares would fetch a hefty premium. Verizon's CEO has said the company will stand pat, but even if they aren't acquired, Sprint shares are cheap and value investors like David Einhorn have found a lot to like in them recently.

Supervalu (SVU) - The retailer is incredibly leveraged and faces increasing competition from Wal-Mart (WMT) and Target (TGT), plus huge food inflation costs that it's finding difficult to pass on to consumers. However, Barron's recently highlighted the company as undervalued and the company's land and real estate alone are likely worth more than its current EV.

Advanced Micro Devices (AWD) - Historically, AMD has served as Intel's (INTC) whipping boy in the chip market. However, the ongoing shift to smart phones and tablets has given AMD a chance to get back into the game, and they've recently hired a respected industry veteran as their CIO. Intel has recently been gaining attention as a potential value stock, and with AMD trading for less than have of intel's price (on an EV / revenue basis), any increase in sales from tablets or mobile phones could send shares much higher.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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