AAPL: Ticonderoga, BTIG Heartened By AT&T iPhone Remarks

Analysts this morning are mulling the implications of AT&T (T) chief financial officer John Stephens’s presentation this morning at the UBS Media and Communications conference, during which Stephens remarked that the company has almost broken its prior record for quarterly smartphone sales, having sold 6 million smartphones two thirds of the way through this quarter.

The record to date is 6.1 million, in Q3 of 2010, he noted.

The Company attributed that in part to continued strong sales of Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone 4S.

No one’s changing their iPhone forecasts, yet, as a result, but bullish Apple types seem encouraged by the remark.

Walter Piecyk with BTIG Research opines that AT&T will sell about 5.3 million iPhone units this quarter, based in part on iPhone users consituting over one third of AT&T’s post-paid customer base and 65% of all its smartphone customers.

Sprint-Nextel (S) and Verizon Communications (VZ) don’t yet have as large a base of customers, so they will probably sell 1.75 million and 3.75 million iPhone units this quarter, he thinks. Piecyk reiterates a forecasting for 30 million iPhone units this quarter.

(Piecyk also uses part of today’s note to take aim at recent speculation that Amazon.com’s (AMZN) “Kindle Fire” tablet may be threatening Apple’s iPad. “our use of the Kindle Fire since its launch leaves us unimpressed with its size, speed and limited Android functionality. If anything, we believe the Kindle Fire could be more of an entry-level product for customers that will inevitably opt for upgrade to the iPad, a far superior product.”)

Ticonderoga Securities’s Brian White, who has a Buy rating on Apple shares, responded to Stephens’s presentation by reiterating his 29.9 million-unit forecast for the iPhone.

UBS’s Maynard Um, meanwhile, who has a Buy rating on Apple shares and a $510 price target, reiterates an estimate for 28 million iPhone units to be sold this quarter, with 6 million being sold by AT&T, but he says that may be “too conservative.”

“Assuming an iPhone to total smartphone mix of ~80% (new iPhone launch qtr), this would imply an incremental 1.2mn iPhone units (7.2mn total) for the Dec qtr at AT&T.”

Each additional 1 million iPhone units will add 24 cents to earnings per share for Apple, Um notes.
Apple shares today are down $3.02, or 0.8%, at $387.93, while AT&T stock is off 10 cents at $29.07.