Saturday, March 1, 2014

In record-setting run, lagging Dow is a concern

NEW YORK — It's hard to criticize or quibble over a stock market hitting fresh all-time highs.

But there is one tiny piece of the bullish puzzle missing in the bull's latest run for the roses: Virtually every stock index with name-recognition has notched a new record high except the blue chip Dow Jones industrial average.

The Standard & Poor's 500 made news Thursday after posting a fresh closing record. The small-fry Russell 2000 stock index was already in new-high territory, as was the Wilshire 5000 index, to name a few.

But despite a 74-point jump to 16,272.65 on Thursday, the Dow remains more than 304 points, or 1.8%, below its Dec. 31, 2013, record close of 16,576.66.

The Dow is lagging, and that's a negative. Wall Street likes it better when all the hot-shot indexes are powering to new highs at the same time.

In Wall Street-speak, it serves as "confirmation" that the stock market, in its broadest sense, is in a solid uptrend.

Lagging indexes such as the Dow are viewed suspiciously as a "divergence," which is a dirty word on Wall Street. It suggests a window of weakness, despite other signs of market strength.

Watch closely to see if the Dow joins the new-high party. If it does, it means the uptrend is solid across the board.

If the iconic Dow fails to join its fellow stock indexes in new-high territory, it could be a signal that the rally is in danger of losing its mojo.

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