The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends is out today (download PDF). The heavily watched Small Business Optimism Index declined slightly from 93.2 to 92.6. Here's the opening paragraph of the report:
The Index of Small Business Optimism lost 0.6 points in December, dropping to 92.6, not a huge change but not the hope-for rebound that would signify more growth in the small business sector. Apparently, the "management change" in Washington and marginally better retail sales numbers were not enough to pump up spirits at the New Year celebrations. This marks the 36th month of recessionary levels. Only once in that period did the Index get above 93 (last month) and has been below 90 for 26 months.
The first chart below highlights the 1986 baseline level of 100 and includes some labels to help us visualize that dramatic change in small-business sentiment that accompanied the Great Financial Crisis. Compare, for example the relative resilience of the index during the 2000-2003 collapse of the Tech Bubble with the far weaker readings of the past three years. The NBER declared June 2009 as the official end of the last recession, but the recession mentality still pervades the small business community.
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