Apple (AAPL) will report fiscal Q4 results in another hour and a half or so, which means it’s not too late for some analysts to chime in with expectations, even though many have done so in the last few days.
Remember, consensus for the quarter is $29.69 billion in revenue and $7.39 per share in profit. For fiscal Q1′s outlook, the Street is modeling $36.72 billion and $9.01 per share.
Apple’s own forecast, offered back on July 19th, was for revenue of $25 billion and EPS of $5.50.
I’d note that in past, when I’ve talked with David Rolfe, chief investment officer with Wedgewood Partners, and a big Apple bull, has offered the view that the right number for quarterly earnings is to add roughly a third to the forecast. That would give you about $7.32 per share this quarter. Which, if correct, would mean the Street is actually following that prescriptive this time around.
Bear in mind that today’s EPS figure, $7.39, is based off of a higher revenue base than last quarter, which came in at $28.6 billion, even though it’s lower than last quarter’s EPS, which was $7.79. Which means the Street is expecting quite a bit of margin erosion, on average.
Keith Bachman, BMO Capital Markets: He has an Outperform rating on the shares and a $445 price target. He’s looking for Apple to report 20.4 million iPhones shipped in Q4, and there’s some “near-term risk,” in his opinion, that some investors’ expectations have been too high for the iPhone, given that Q4 was right up against the company’s unveiling this month of the new model, the 4S. Bachman projects 11 million iPads shipped, with modest upside possible. He sees 4.3 million Macs sold, and 6.5 million iPods. His EPS of $7.36 is based on a gross margin of 40%, but that margin could turn out higher and offer greater upside, he thinks.
Toni Sacconaghi, Sanford Bernstein: He has an Outperform rating on Apple shares, and today raised his price target to $575 from $510, after raising his estimates for the this year and next. He now sees Apple shipping 19.4 million iPhones, 13 million iPads, 4.65 million Macs, and 6.8 million iPods. He’s modeling $30.7 billion in revenue, $7.76 in EPS. For fiscal Q1, he sees $39.9 billion in revenue, and EPS of $10.27 per share. Sacconaghi raised his iPhone estimate for fiscal Q1 to reflect the impact of the now free iPhone 3GS, which “we expect will drive 14 million iPhone units in fiscal 2012,” he writes. That raises Sacconaghi’s full-year 2012 iPhone estimate to 115.1 million units, up from 95.8 million previously. Sacconaghi raised his 2011 EPS estimate to $28.38 from a prior $27.78, and he raised his fiscal 2012 estimate to $37.86 per share in profit from a prior $33.66 per share.
Mark Moskowitz, JP Morgan: He expects iPhone units consensus of 19 million for last quarter is too low, and 20.6 million is more like it. iPad units consensus of 11 million, and his own 10.9 million estimate, may be too low, as there was a lot of “noise” about cuts in iPad production last month, but Moskowitz thinks there was no truth to speculation that demand was soft, or that Apple was backing off in the face of Amazon.com‘s (AMZN) Kindle Fire tablet. His “research continues to point to a steady cadence in iPad shipments,” he writes. Moskowitz models gross profit margin of 39.7% last quarter, 39.3% this quarter. But those numbers may also be too low, as prices, aside from hard drives, have been coming down.
Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital: He’s expecting $29.7 billion in revenue, and $7.67 per share in profit, though it could go to $8 per share or more, he thinks. For Q1′s outlook, he expects a “typically conservative” forecast by Apple, at $34 billion in revenue and $8 per share in profit. Abramsky models 19.5 million iPhone shipments, 12.5 million iPads, 4.5 million Macs, and 7.2 million iPods. He sees gross profit margin at 41.5%, which, he argues, is what the buy-side has modeled as well.
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